Scotland's Oil

[Broccoli Dog]

Using money from North Sea Oil to fund research and development into tidal, wind, solar and geothermal, seems like a fairly sound plan. Plus there's no reason why Scotland cannot be a leading manufacturer and exporter of renewable technology, we're already slightly ahead of the curve in some areas. This in turn can bring life back into old industrial communities, and be a mass creator of jobs.

[I'm Brian]

I'm intersted in the opportunities for the West of Scotland and the recent information regarding reserves there. Apparently exploration has been blocked by the MOD regarding the nuclear fleet. I heard a conspiracy theory that we will only go after it when Saudi runs out. When that would be who knows.

The economic boost for the West of Scotland would be fantastic, especially in manufacturing and engineering which Glasgow has a solid past in.

All I know about the West Coast story other than the MOD blocking drilling due to Trident, is that there is more to come on the story. How much more and how helpful to the cause I don't know. My opinion is that if and when it comes out, it will be strategically timed for maximum impact.

I agree with your point about opportunities. It fucks me off so much as I probably could have walked into a job after leaving school had, as is suggested the oil boom happened. That's a selfish viewpoint of course. But when you look at the coalfields and how desperate they are now it could have stopped the villages there becoming grim wastelands due to the high number of redundant people in the pit villages having opportunities

[Tubbs]

No. Once we have built the wind and tidal renewable facilities we'll have permanent price protection rather than the fluctuations normally seen with a dwindling non-renewable resource.

This is about planning ahead well before the oil runs out. We already have unprecedented levels of fuel poverty.

The price stability of wind power is needed now!

The major problem with wind power of course being storage, that's where we need to be investing research funds.

BTW I'd like to see the excess wind power used to catalytically convert unwanted carbon dioxide back into oil and gas again.

Now THAT would be joined up thinking which would cheaply solve two problems at once.

Yes but is the plan for the oil to run out after all being burnt/consumed at some point? we (UK and/or Scotland) are going to burn every last bit of it and then turn to green power ? We are not planning to leave any of it in the ground.

[hedrum-NO-drum]

We can't have a separate forum on the referendum without discussing oil. Many of us including myself work in the oil industry. It's a massive topic in the debate.

According to Dr Alex Kemp -

How do people see this panning out should we vote YES?

It's clearly a massive benefit along with our other mineral deposits. I'd like to think we'd use it better than the UK Treasury has.

shetland, the orkney's and the western isles might have something to say about that. who would be best placed to protect the oil wells?

[doulikefish]

shetland, the orkney's and the western isles might have something to say about that. who would be best placed to protect the oil wells?

Russian frigates

[hedrum-NO-drum]

Russian frigates

as good a guess as any. my guess is nessie.

[capybara]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/the-secret-oil-report-we-find-the-crucial-report-advising-westminster-not-t.24189400

More proof, if it were needed that Westminster has wasted Scotland.s oil legacy. What is worse is trying to cover it up.

[Newbornbairn]

In just over five years Britain will have run out of oil, coal and gas, researchers have warned.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27435624

Shurely shum mistake by the hippies?

[strichener]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27435624

Shurely shum mistake by the hippies?

Oh well, 5 years for Britain must be about 50 years for Scotland if it is consumption based.

[Hedgecutter]

You also should know that even with an "empty" oil field, there will still be billions of barrels of oil there - it just can't be extracted.

Important point this, although we'd be talking millions, not billions (there are very few billion barrel field in the UK sector) . If you get 30% out of an oil field at the moment then you're doing well (oil gets held between sand grains due to capilliary forces, oil migrates into dead ends which need additional wells to recover etc and standard water flood isn't sufficient to move them).

When it comes to reserves, there are two different volumetric figures which the media are really bad at getting mixed up; Initially in place and recoverable.

People are always keen to point out that few exploration wells are being drilled as if we aren't going to find much more. The big progress however is on the reservoir engineering and geological development side where EOR (enhanced oil recovery) is a big area of study. To date many fields have just been 'suck it and see'. Increasing production by a few percent through CO2*, steam injection or other techniques on a reasonably large field would be equivalent to the discovery of a whole new smaller field.

We need to remember that the UKCS is not only a mature region with regards to exploration but a high risk now one too. All the major, obvious geological structures have been drilled already leaving the small fry ones where you're targeting isolated sands which are tricky to see on seismic surveys rather than giant domes. With most North Sea operators being international ones, it's no wonder that their primary focus is elsewhere in the world where risk is much lower. What operators do want however is to extract as much as they can from the assets they already have control over. This will continue for the significant future as development of assets is where the money's made, not chasing stuff elsewhere which on average has a 1/10 success rate.

As for the link earlier over oil gone in 5 years, I'm doubtful that you can even get it all out in that time frame. You can f*** your field up by producing it too quickly.

* this can double up with carbon capture and storage opportunities which is looking to be good additional business btw.

My understanding is that extracting it requires a pressure differential in the same way as a "empty" gas canister will still contain loads of gas which can't be usefully extracted but you'd need to ask an expert.

The sciency bit, others should ignore if they don't care:

With gas fields, yes. With oil, not so much. The pressure differential relates more to the well itself to keep the fluids circulating, otherwise the well 'dies' and the oil struggles to reach the surface. Pressure differences are generally bad when it comes to oil fields as if it lowers then the gas held within comes out of solution, just like Irn Bru when you open the can. Keeping the gas in the oil makes it easier to move the stuff and you don't need to flare the gas off which would incur an environmental 'fine'.

Within the field itself, it's much more to do with the density of the fluids and to put it very simplistically, as gas sits over oil which sits over water, the oil migrates to shallower depths given the easiest pathway in a water filled reservoir, usually between the grains of the rock. The first well just intersects the reservoir and lets the oil flow into the well all by itself (i.e the suck it and see approach).

If oil is getting stuck between the grains in the sandstone then a simple way to extract it (i.e. get more than the suck it and see approach) is to drill an injector well down dip and pump water into the reservoir which will hopefully displace the trapped oil and move it towards the producing well. If this conventional waterflood isn't enough then another option is to break down the various oil types using different injection fluids (i.e. EOR) in order to reduce the viscosity. This obviously incurs much higher costs though due to extra facilities and staff on the rig.

The Clair field (west of Shetland) for example contains around a billion barrels of oil but it's mainly heavy, very viscous and difficult to move. This will require EOR to get it out but if they manage to get a development plan which is economically viable then you're looking at producing another Forties scale prospect (in this single instance).

[Hedgecutter]

I'm intersted in the opportunities for the West of Scotland and the recent information regarding reserves there. Apparently exploration has been blocked by the MOD regarding the nuclear fleet. I heard a conspiracy theory that we will only go after it when Saudi runs out. When that would be who knows.

The economic boost for the West of Scotland would be fantastic, especially in manufacturing and engineering which Glasgow has a solid past in.

Let's nip this in the bud now. If you've seen anything decent about West of Scotland then it's most likely to be about West of Shetlands.

It is incredibly unlikely that anything significant will be found off of the west coast of our mainland, largely because oil source rocks are poorly developed and the geological history of the area means that if they are there then they haven't been buried deep enough to generate oil from them. Reservoir distribution will be patchy at best. If there is, it will be incredibly expensive to develop as not only is it deep water from a facilities point of view, the volcanic intrusions all over the place from the numerous large volcanic centres will have split the fields into compartments which would need multi-million pound wells for each one. Absolute nightmare.

If they do find any fields then they probably won't be significant enough to build the offshore infrastructure for it. I'd stick to thinking about building turbines for offshore wind farms, sorry.

[joozy]

Let's nip this in the bud now. If you've seen anything decent about West of Scotland then it's most likely to be about West of Shetlands.

It is incredibly unlikely that anything significant will be found off of the west coast of our mainland, largely because oil source rocks are poorly developed and the geological history of the area means that if they are there then they haven't been buried deep enough to generate oil from them. Reservoir distribution will be patchy at best. If there is, it will be incredibly expensive to develop as not only is it deep water from a facilities point of view, the volcanic intrusions all over the place from the numerous large volcanic centres will have split the fields into compartments which would need multi-million pound wells for each one. Absolute nightmare.

If they do find any fields then they probably won't be significant enough to build the offshore infrastructure for it. I'd stick to thinking about building turbines for offshore wind farms, sorry.

No, no, no - this 'science' talk will not do at all. Don't you understand the vast Westminster conspiracy to hide the billions and billions of barrels just waiting to be drilled for in the West? For years they've been hiding the truth about this because of Trident and stuff. Boooooooo.

[Confidemus]

Let's nip this in the bud now. If you've seen anything decent about West of Scotland then it's most likely to be about West of Shetlands.

It is incredibly unlikely that anything significant will be found off of the west coast of our mainland, largely because oil source rocks are poorly developed and the geological history of the area means that if they are there then they haven't been buried deep enough to generate oil from them. Reservoir distribution will be patchy at best. If there is, it will be incredibly expensive to develop as not only is it deep water from a facilities point of view, the volcanic intrusions all over the place from the numerous large volcanic centres will have split the fields into compartments which would need multi-million pound wells for each one. Absolute nightmare.

If they do find any fields then they probably won't be significant enough to build the offshore infrastructure for it. I'd stick to thinking about building turbines for offshore wind farms, sorry.

I'm not saying you're wrong, as you're clearly very knowledgable on the subject, but would BP have conducted seismic surveys in the 80s south of Arran and east of Kintyre if there was thought to be no decent amount of recoverable oil there?

No, no, no - this 'science' talk will not do at all. Don't you understand the vast Westminster conspiracy to hide the billions and billions of barrels just waiting to be drilled for in the West? For years they've been hiding the truth about this because of Trident and stuff. Boooooooo.

How very like you. You only appear when things "appear" to be going your way. Haven't you got some kool aid to get back to?

ETA: The hell is it with Falkirk fans on here? Are they ALL dicks?

[AUFC90]

I'm not saying you're wrong, as you're clearly very knowledgable on the subject, but would BP have conducted seismic surveys in the 80s south of Arran and east of Kintyre if there was thought to be no decent amount of recoverable oil there?

How very like you. You only appear when things "appear" to be going your way. Haven't you got some kool aid to get back to?

ETA: The hell is it with Falkirk fans on here? Are they ALL dicks?

BP actually applied for a production licence which tells me they found something.

[Hedgecutter]

I'm not saying you're wrong, as you're clearly very knowledgable on the subject, but would BP have conducted seismic surveys in the 80s south of Arran and east of Kintyre if there was thought to be no decent amount of recoverable oil there?

They drilled the Minches and Inner Hebrides basins too. Hell, there's even an abandoned wellsite on Skye (the folk there for an oil company called Pentex got beaten up by locals who thought that they were from Nirex, the company interested in the deep storage of nuclear waste at the time). All times they discovered not just dry wells but geological sections which were completely useless from a Petroleum perspective.

What they did there was take a survey and drill a wildcat well to assess the prospectivity of the area first. The only way to know what rock types lie under the sea there is to drill it*. This allows them to develop the (at the time immature) North Sea without the niggle of "hmmm, what if there's something out there on the other side?" In all cases the whole surrounding area has been abandoned based on the results.

Seismic sections are all well and good, but they only pick up differences between rock types, i.e. they don't tell you what rock types are there. You need to drill it and then match the layers to the seismic in order to make any decent informed decision.

BP actually applied for a production licence which tells me they found something.

What frequently happens is that a wildcat well will find something, but not necessarily significant oil, i.e. just shows. The operator then has to make the decision of "will we write this off as a dry well and the area's crap or will we assume that the oil migrated into another part of the structure?", at which point you need a development licence to do the latter and drill an appraisal well. If they never went for it then it was probably just another dud prospect.

Also, geological knowledge of the region was very poor back then and has improved incredibly between now and then. Those wells were drilled only ~20 years after geologists discovered plate tectonics!

*Now, if you're thinking is "how can you write it off without drilling it then?" then that's a good question but regional studies of the Atlantic margins (UK / North America / Greenland) strongly imply that the past arrangement of the continents is highly un-favourable when it comes to producing thick sections of reservoir and source rocks required to produce any part of a petroleum system.

Disclaimer: There is probably some oil out there (as shown by a couple of small fields offshore Ireland), potentially cooked up by volcanism or whatever but it would take an incredibly brave company to risk millions when they could go elsewhere for much less risk. Most of the continental margin where exploration would be focussed is in Irish waters anyway. Like I say, even in more promising areas of the proven North Sea, the rate of success is only ~10%.

[strichener]

Disclaimer: There is probably some oil out there (as shown by a couple of small fields offshore Ireland), potentially cooked up by volcanism or whatever but it would take an incredibly brave company to risk millions when they could go elsewhere for much less risk. Most of the continental margin where exploration would be focussed is in Irish waters anyway. Like I say, even in more promising areas of the proven North Sea, the rate of success is only ~10%.

Based on the attempts to date, a 1 in 10 chance of finding recoverable Oil off the west coast appears better odds than shale, given that all the large operators have abandoned Poland (which has allegedly the highest concentration in Europe).

[Hedgecutter]

Based on the attempts to date, a 1 in 10 chance of finding recoverable Oil off the west coast appears better odds than shale, given that all the large operators have abandoned Poland (which has allegedly the highest concentration in Europe).

A lot of this comes down to operating costs. Land rigs need a fraction of the cost to run than an offshore one (the latter being almost £500,000 per day... whether it's good or bead weather... in shallow water, never mind the Atlantic margin). The only reason Pentex drilled the pre-mentioned Skye well was because it was a land rig. Offshore Arran etc was relatively cheap shallow water stuff and worth a punt at the time too. Britoil even had a Glasgow office, now long abandoned.

1 in 10 is the general factor for the North Sea btw, not West of Scotland which is likely to be less seeing as it's an unproven basin.

[Newbornbairn]

Interesting stuff Hedgecutter .

[strichener]

A lot of this comes down to operating costs. Land rigs need a fraction of the cost to run than an offshore one (the latter being almost £500,000 per day... whether it's good or bead weather... in shallow water, never mind the Atlantic margin). The only reason Pentex drilled the pre-mentioned Skye well was because it was a land rig. Offshore Arran etc was relatively cheap shallow water stuff and worth a punt at the time too. Britoil even had a Glasgow office, now long abandoned.

1 in 10 is the general factor for the North Sea btw, not West of Scotland which is likely to be less seeing as it's an unproven basin.

You are missing the point. The oil majors have been expending vast amounts of effort and money on an area which geographically alludes to the largest shale gas reserves in Europe and yet still they cannot make it viable from an economic standpoint. Given that land based drilling, infrastructure etc. is significantly cheaper than offshore the recoverable gas to make it viable would be significantly less than an offshore gas find. Yet this hasn't happened.

To me this proves two points:

1. Geology can be misleading.

2. Oil majors only drill where they think they can make money.

If there is any opportunity for oil/gas on the West Coast, then lets licence it and see what materialises. If costs very little to set up a licence program. The only problem we have is those pesky nukes.

[Hedgecutter]

I have to laugh when I see stuff like this though:

"A potential North Sea style oil boom"

For a start, the North Sea area has one of the richest source rocks in the world. Almost all of the oil fields are sourced from this thick succession of organic rich Jurassic mudstone which has been buried down to >3km. Millions of years ago the North Sea area was a huge faulted hole in the ground later filled in by a top-notch sandy delta the size of today's Nile (the Brent reservoir) and when it all subsided, large sandy turbidity currents fell into the deep water providing more top-class reservoirs like the Forties. That's all overlain by ~1km of muds which keep everything down there

The Firth of Clyde of the other hand is a small, shallow isolated basin with a much thinner succession of crappy red sandstones which were possibly overlain by poorer quality shallow-water mudstones with far inferior organic content which biodegraded. Volcanic centres like Arran and Ailsa Craig have also punched through all this, reduced the reservoir quality through cementation and intruded numerous nasty volcanic bodies through the sands, cuting it all up. There's also very little rock to seal the oil in so if it's been generated then it's probably all leaked out.

Whatever sells papers though.