Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[welshbairn]

Poor night for Labour if they get less than the 60.8% they got in 2010 considering the disgrace of the last SNP MP and the last SNP leader being investigated by the police. The Tories losing their deposit would be fun.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

Is Curtice wearing pedal pushers?

[Bully Wee Villa]

Labour win easily.

 

[renton]

That's a bad one for the SNP, really bad. Well in excess of national polling and any worst case scenarios for that seat.

[Iain]

If this result is reflective of where politics in Scotland is going to go over the coming years then it's going to be a tough time for everyone who doesn't have right wing/unionist views.

[DAFC.]

1 hour ago, Iain said:

If this result is reflective of where politics in Scotland is going to go over the coming years then it's going to be a tough time for everyone who doesn't have right wing/unionist views.

We’ll see how it goes, but I would still be surprised if SNP don’t come out of the next GE with at least 30 seats (ergo the biggest party in Scotland) Their polling suggests they’ll get around 25-30 at the moment anyway, which isn’t THAT bad, considering they have absolutely fucked it recently. 

Their main concern should be trying to get the disenfranchised young vote back onside, as that is their core vote and, at the moment, it certainly seems people under the age of 40 just cannot be arsed bothering to make an effort. Once the GE date is officially set and the momentum starts to build, they’ll probably get themselves back to a position they’ll wish to see themselves in. Despite the fact they’ll lose seats, the bottom line is: the country is still 50/50 on independence, and they’ll be relevant in politics for another generation. 

[Bully Wee Villa]

Difficult to gauge too much from that result given the events that lead to the by-election. 

[btb]

Sturgeon's hubris...

The real pisser is Starmer's Labour Party is gonna do nothing for Scotland.

[ScotiaNostra]

There will be all sorts of reasons given why but its obvious and people have been saying it for ages now. The snp lost its way, it hasnt governed well. Its main leadership is now out of touch with peoples day to day problems. Independence is still popular but a lot feel the snp wont get us there and while we wait they arent able to run the day to day well enough. 
 

nothing will change those excuses will be made , torys bad will be said, labour torys will be said and the cliff will keep getting closer

[StellarHibee]

I mean, I get the lack of appeal for the SNP right now. But what's the appeal for any of the alternatives? 

Edited October 6, 2023 by StellarHibee

[StellarHibee]

46 minutes ago, ScotiaNostra said:

The snp lost its way, it hasnt governed well.

They're being blamed for issues inflicting the whole of the UK as a result of things outwith the control of both the Scottish Government and the Scottish electorate. The British media have played a blinder in Scotland.

[Johnny Martin]

This was a disastrous night for the SNP and an outstanding one for Labour.

The dynamic in Scottish politics has well and truly changed.  I expected a Labour victory, but not by this margin.

[vikingTON]

10 minutes ago, StellarHibee said:

They're being blamed for issues inflicting the whole of the UK as a result of things outwith the control of both the Scottish Government and the Scottish electorate. The British media have played a blinder in Scotland.

Deluded nonsense. The reality is that Team Humza's continuity Sturgeon act of 'leadership', partnership with total frauds like Lorna Slater and ostracism of dissenting MSPs has proven toxic once the voters had the opportunity to give their verdict. 

A strategy that is all about doubling down on puffing, West-Central Scotland Labour da's has been holed well below the waterline.

[Suspect Device]

5 minutes ago, Johnny Martin said:

This was a disastrous night for the SNP and an outstanding one for Labour.

The dynamic in Scottish politics has well and truly changed.  I expected a Labour victory, but not by this margin.

No it wasn't. It was the expected result but Labour failed to inspire their core vote and the Tories helped them to a victory judging by the collapse in their vote.

A win for unionism. You'll be happy enough with that.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Suspect Device

[Granny Danger]

There are a number of factors that contributed to previously SNP voters voting Labour, neither surprising or unexpected.

However the level of the swing is masked by the number of previously Tory voters who voted Labour this time around.

Again neither surprising or unexpected.  It must be very easy for Tory voters to embrace Keir Starmer’s Labour Party.

 

[Wee-Bey]

Mind the Tory Hamilton fan with the big forehead who posted on here.

Wonder if he switched to Labour.

[Dunning1874]

Ooft. Even accounting for the collapse in turnout, that's a really bad one for the SNP. Regardless of whether you want to look at it as the real terms increase in the Labour vote being covered by the drop in the Tory & Lib Dem votes with the SNP drop being down to stay at home apathy, or more to do with SNP to Labour switching, that's worse than they'd have expected.

It's still possible that this scale of swing is something of a Glasgow East 2008 situation that won't be repeated come a general election, especially when you consider the circumstances of Margaret Ferrier's removal, and this is a seat Labour won in 2017 where it would be a disaster not to take all of those again. It doesn't necessarily mean Labour are going to take the most Scottish seats at Westminster next year, but it now gives them the feeling of momentum towards that goal and if this swing is replicated then they will.

[renton]

While all eyes will turn to what Yousaf does next, I suspect that result has irradiated him and his shelf life has been drastically shortened.

There is no doubt that the Police investigation remains a drag on the SNP, but also the fact that the DRS and GRR have been succesfully painted by the UK as terrible policies that the SNP nevertheless have to go into bat for to defend devolution, and the lack of a clear plan forward for Independence where their vote has become decoupled from that has also hurt them.

I think if Sunak is planning for an election in the autumn, then the SNP need to have either miraculously fixed all these issues under Yousaf or a new leader is needed by the Spring.

It can't be Forbes though. I get that a near even split in the leadership election maybe has produced its own drag on activists which will have bled into the voter base but i'm not surw picking the standard bearer for the smaller, rejected cohort makes life any better and besides, she's actually really bad at politics. The way she came after Yousaf in the debates was self defeating for the party and her inability to square her faith with the policy platform of the party means she is never going to generate that "everyman" aura that Sturgeon was so good at. Also "I dont think your rights matter, and if it was up to me you wouldnt have them but i'm not going to do anything about it" is not the enlightened compromise position she thinks it is.

The next SNP leadership needs to blow past the current generation and start looking at the likes of McPherson or McAllan, someone who's untainted by long association with Sturgeon unless Branchiform has ended by then, and with a practical plan for advancing independence. Or at least a plan they can present with seeming conviction.

Holyrood is about policy, but WM for the SNP is about hammering away at the button marked Indy, and its the only way they'll carry any momentum.

[Donathan]

Look, I get that it’s a by-election and people vote differently in by-elections. They’re often used to give the ruling party a bloody nose and even a Westminster by-election can be used for that when the SNP are in power at Holyrood. There will also be an element of the electorate in Rutherglen & Hamilton West that are out to punish the SNP for the actions of Margaret Ferrier. I know one woman’s actions should tarnish the entire party but not everyone thinks that way especially when they’ve had to go three years without effective representation.

 

Even still, questions will be getting asked in Bute House. If that swing was repeated at the general election, large swathes of west central Scotland will go back to Labour, which will surely be fatal for Humza Yousaf. 

[ScotiaNostra]

Labour must love the excuses that always come for SNP, the best thing for them is the SNP carrying on as is