Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[BFTD]

3 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Once again (and I'm 68) almost all of these polls don't reflect the silent Tory vote which almost supernaturally appears at every GE.  And as I've posted here recently, despite everything, England remains a fundamentally conservative (both upper and lower case) country and probably always will.

Sure, Blair swept to power in 1997 but Starmer doesn't have a tenth of his powers of self promotion, added to which Labour 2024 is a complete policy and morality vacuum.  This contest will go the full fifteen rounds.

The Tories have pissed off their own voter base again, so they're taking a paddlin' this time out. There's nothing they can do to change that now, and possibly not since The Truss Experiment. I'm thinking that a lot of the REFUK crew would likely not vote at all this time out if they didn't have Our Nigel to register a protest with.

Another inevitability; in order to get the lost voters back on side, the Tories will definitely be going even further right in response, and will amalgamate with REFUK. That would be absolutely hilarious were it not for the fact that the UK isn't going to be in a better position five years from now, so the likelihood is that "socialism" gets the blame again and there's no other credible alternative party in England. We're absolutely sleepwalking into fascism, and the worry is that desperate people are starting to see it as actively worth consideration.

[Fullerene]

8 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Once again (and I'm 68) almost all of these polls don't reflect the silent Tory vote which almost supernaturally appears at every GE.  And as I've posted here recently, despite everything, England remains a fundamentally conservative (both upper and lower case) country and probably always will.

Sure, Blair swept to power in 1997 but Starmer doesn't have a tenth of his powers of self promotion, added to which Labour 2024 is a complete policy and morality vacuum.  This contest will go the full fifteen rounds.

It is FPTP that makes England seem more right wing than it really is.  Without it, there would have been no majority government in the last fifty years (let along a whopping one).

(Obviously this assumes everyone votes the same even if the system was changed.)

I take your point that there are lots of people who are too embarrassed to admit they vote Tory.  That is equally true for Reform.

Historically FPTP has allowed the Tories in while the other parties split the vote.  In this election with both Tories and Reform chasing the same voters, the situation will be reversed.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

15 hours ago, Highlandmagar said:

If you read thay you give article within that Britain Elects poël, you will read that under a new way of doing çolls YouGuv have Labour on 40% ( down 6) Tories on 19% and Reform on 17%.

Maybe these new polls wil start to show how soft Labour's vote is and their lead will shrink.

Someones on holiday in turkey….

[Highlandmagar]

5 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Someones on holiday in turkey….

Benidorm actually.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

7 minutes ago, Highlandmagar said:

Benidorm actually.

Lol i only know from doing the same!!

[O'Kelly Isley III]

8 hours ago, Fullerene said:

It is FPTP that makes England seem more right wing than it really is.  Without it, there would have been no majority government in the last fifty years (let along a whopping one).

(Obviously this assumes everyone votes the same even if the system was changed.)

I take your point that there are lots of people who are too embarrassed to admit they vote Tory.  That is equally true for Reform.

Historically FPTP has allowed the Tories in while the other parties split the vote.  In this election with both Tories and Reform chasing the same voters, the situation will be reversed.

That's fair enough, but I'm still minded that as the election draws nearer a lot of folk tempted to vote Reform will have a 'wait a minute, WTF am I doing' moment and revert to type.

[BFTD]

6 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

That's fair enough, but I'm still minded that as the election draws nearer a lot of folk tempted to vote Reform will have a 'wait a minute, WTF am I doing' moment and revert to type.

I dunno, if you weren't happy with your party and knew they were losing anyway, wouldn't you be more likely to vote for a plucky underdog (with wealthy backing, pretend that's not true) that was pursuing your values better?

The more that the polls say that the Farage Party is drawing level in a distant second place, the more likely it seems to me that Tory voters would register their outrage and feel empowered to switch. The only ones who wouldn't are the people who wouldn't be seen dead associating with dodgy used car dealer spiv types like Our Nigel.

[Granny Danger]

3 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

That's fair enough, but I'm still minded that as the election draws nearer a lot of folk tempted to vote Reform will have a 'wait a minute, WTF am I doing' moment and revert to type.

I think you credit people with a thought process many/most lack.

As someone who took an interest in politics at an early age I have always been astounded how blasé people are about the political and electoral systems and how they are governed.

There are millions of people in Britain who could write a thesis about Coronation Street plots or recite the history of Love Island winners but could not tell you who their MP is or explain what proportional representation is.

 

[Cheese]

 

[Lurkst]

6 minutes ago, D Angelo Barksdale said:

 

 

[scottsdad]

16 minutes ago, D Angelo Barksdale said:

 

Normal Island indeed

[GordonS]

3 hours ago, D Angelo Barksdale said:

 

France, who were squished like a bug on a windscreen in the opening acts of the war, did as much to win WW2 as the USSR, who won the biggest battle in the history of the world and the biggest conflict in the history of the world, with 8.7 million military and 19 million civilian deaths. They suffered more casualties in individual battles 99% of people have never heard of than France lost in the entire war.

6%.

I'm done, lord take me now.

[Theroadlesstravelled]

You lot must have never seen that Maquis documentary 'allo 'allo.

[Granny Danger]

6 hours ago, GordonS said:

France, who were squished like a bug on a windscreen in the opening acts of the war, did as much to win WW2 as the USSR, who won the biggest battle in the history of the world and the biggest conflict in the history of the world, with 8.7 million military and 19 million civilian deaths. They suffered more casualties in individual battles 99% of people have never heard of than France lost in the entire war.

6%.

I'm done, lord take me now.

Im surprised that anyone is surprised at the result of this poll.

[Dunfermline Don]

10 hours ago, D Angelo Barksdale said:

 

I saw similar polls showing the question asked in USA, France and Germany that had a slightly different response. 
From what I remember only the German one had USSR as their top answer  

 

[BFTD]

14 hours ago, D Angelo Barksdale said:

 

I somehow ended up in an argument with my mother about this yesterday. A ton of stuff about WWII popped up on the telly, so our PM fucking off from the D-Day 80th anniversary commemorations came up, and I must have made one of my typically flippant, yet hilarious comments about the Russians handing Ze Germans their arses. Wouldn't have it - Britain had singularly beaten off the Nazis with little help, and had suffered more than any other nation, even the ones who were actually invaded, raped and murdered, and had concentration camps built to exterminate parts of their populace.

She's a history buff and rabid Scottish Nationalist approaching eighty. That must have been some powerful indoctrination the Greatest Generation handed out to their kids.

[Highlandmagar]

16 hours ago, D Angelo Barksdale said:

 

f**k me! We would have been creamed without the Americans and Hitler going for Russia instead of us.

[Dunfermline Don]

A lot is always made of the fact that after the fall of France. Britain stood alone against the Nazis (well apart from the rest of the Empire and troops from occupied nations that sought refuge in the UK).
 I think that causes a lot of people to think that we did more than the USA or USSR despite them contributing far more in terms of numbers. 

[scottsdad]

18 hours ago, GordonS said:

France, who were squished like a bug on a windscreen in the opening acts of the war, did as much to win WW2 as the USSR, who won the biggest battle in the history of the world and the biggest conflict in the history of the world, with 8.7 million military and 19 million civilian deaths. They suffered more casualties in individual battles 99% of people have never heard of than France lost in the entire war.

6%.

I'm done, lord take me now.

I read a book on Stalingrad a wee while back.

More German soldiers died trying and failing to take one building (called Chekov's House) than died in the entire invasion of France.

This fact sticks in the mind.

[GordonS]

6 hours ago, Highlandmagar said:

f**k me! We would have been creamed without the Americans and Hitler going for Russia instead of us.

The UK wouldn't have been creamed without the Americans, they would probably have had enough to prevent an invasion of the UK and Ireland. They fought alone(-ish) in North Africa before the yanks showed up. But they'd never have been able to invade continental Europe without the US.

An entirely feasible alternative world without Pearl Harbor is the USSR defeating the Nazis and taking over Europe. But without the huge support they got from the USA that seems unlikely too. Who knows.

If there's one thing gammon twits need to learn about WW2, it's that it was won by an international anti-facist collaboration.