Mr Bairn Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Such is the hatred towards the Tories if Scottish people are left with the straight option of at least 4 more years of a Tory government or Independence the majority of Labour voters will take Independence. Yeah. I'm not sure about the majority of Labour voters, but the amount of voters full stop will. If you weight it the Scottish election list vote, assume that everyone that voted SNP/GRN will vote yes and everyone that voted Tory/LD will vote No (I know it doesn't work like that, but the number of "Red-Nats" will offset the "Right wing Nationalists" in a very basic assumption) Then you have yes 72% and No 28%, so yes would only need about a third of Labour/minor party/non-voters from the Scottish elections to coast home. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P45 Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Even some most die hard Labour supporters must look at Milliband, Balls and Murphy and think f**k that. If Labour had decent politicians then Independence wouldn't even be on the cards. Scotland would be generally happy in the Union with a strong Labour government IMO. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Double Jack D Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Even some most die hard Labour supporters must look at Milliband, Balls and Murphy and think f**k that. If Labour had decent politicians then Independence wouldn't even be on the cards. Scotland would be generally happy in the Union with a strong Labour government IMO. I agree. The fact we even have a Referendum is more to do with the failures of the Labour party than anything the SNP have done. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HaikuHibee Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Jesus, can you actually fucking read, you cretin? The Tories certainly won't be "clawing their way back" from 4th in the popular vote and 1 seat and certainly nothing in Scotland is going to "depend on UKIP" 2015? A General Election. Your typo I think. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Try again fanny baws. I was specifically talking about the Scottiah portion of the general election 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 My first night proper canvassing tonight. ie the referendum question using data from electoral register. Only a sample size of 200 but it is pretty much bang on 50/50 yes no or split pretty even 3 ways if you include undecideds. Striking how heavily weighted it is by age, young and middle age mostly yes pensionable almost all no. Also, it appears I live on the most Yes street in Scotland 19 yes 1 no and 1 undecided. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 My first night proper canvassing tonight. ie the referendum question using data from electoral register. Only a sample size of 200 but it is pretty much bang on 50/50 yes no or split pretty even 3 ways if you include undecideds. Striking how heavily weighted it is by age, young and middle age mostly yes pensionable almost all no. Also, it appears I live on the most Yes street in Scotland 19 yes 1 no and 1 undecided. 100% of the Dundonians I know are voting yes (all 3 of them) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 I don't know any Dundonians. They're all voting Yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted July 17, 2014 Share Posted July 17, 2014 Nobody is dundonian 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Bump!! Good numbers for YES tonight in the latest TNS poll Yes 45 ( + 4%) No 55% ( -4%) If we could get all the polls up to 47/48% it's game over for UKOK,gaun the schemies. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 ICM and TNS are the most reliable pollsters IMO but that's only because they seem to favour the neutral and their methodologies aren't questions so much but yougov have been the most accurate at polling Scottish samples in recent elections 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fotbawmad Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Didn't YouGov polls say Labour were going to win the last election with a crushing majority? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Didn't YouGov polls say Labour were going to win the last election with a crushing majority? Dont feed the troll 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 OBVIOUSLY they didn't say that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Haemorrhaging support...... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 @ AuldG - What exactly is your issue with yougov other than they're not telling you what you want to hear? I'm not saying their methodology is definitely right, nor am I saying panelbase/survation are definitely flawed (As an aside, I'm a member of both yougov and panelbase) What I am saying is that yougov had the closest predictions in the European elections and the 2011 elections. Looking back at 2010 it seems TNS were the closest in Scotland-only opinion polls, but yougov weren't far behind and everybody overestimated the SNP and underestimated the "shy-Tories" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 I'll answer this later. I start work at 1:30. No problem 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P45 Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 So if the weighting on the polls is right it's going to be very close and come down to the Don't knows. Not really a surprise. Whatever happens millions of people are going to be severely pissed off and each other. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 ^^^ Correct. Scottish society seems irreparably damaged. The only thing that could save society is a yes vote and No voters accepting it in time because I sure as hell don't think many yes voters are going to pipe down after a No vote 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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