Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[HTG]

it's got nothing to do with "The British State". It's about taking a gamble that could either work out well or have disastrous consequences. I would err on the side of caution and that's got nothing to do with supporting any political parties. It's a No for economic stability in the short to mid term and see how things improve. If they don't I'll rethink it.

When in the name of fvck are you going to re-think it? Cameron made the point that this isn't a general election. There won't be a re-think. Vote No by all means but be ready to suck up the shite that will flow for generations to come.

[boabinoban]

See when people start using evidence and facts? Does my heid in so it does!

Evidence and facts have gone right out the window as far as today was concerned from the No camp. I'm sounding like I need a tin foil hat here but it wasn't about facts today. It was about a propaganda machine at work.

[Granny Danger]

Watching anything classified as 'news' over the last two days about this referendum - jaw dropping. As of yesterday, the politics of fear is really in full flow from the establishment. Every untruth, manipulation, exaggeration, disaster scenario and orchestration all designed to question every aspect of your logical and emotional thought processes are all going to be thrown at you over the next eight days.

It's exactly what they want: don't buy it, and get them telt on the 18th.

Ran out of greenies, but a brilliant, succinct post.

[Alert Mongoose]

See when people start using evidence and facts? Does my heid in so it does!

[forza ton]

it not on the sky news website either so its a load of crap

It's from Faisal Islam @skynews

Very interesting indeed

[invergowrie arab]

So the momentum is swinging towards No again. Think there will be a few swings back and forward though.

.

Not really even if you take survation as the poll to trust it had merely stalled.

[HTG]

That's not to say that there won't be another referendum if the devolved powers aren't satisfactory. It's the Yes vote that would mean no turning back. Get a grip

You are kidding eh? Have a look at what came hurtling over the border with the shite running down their leg this morning. Do you seriously think Westminster is ever going to enable this to happen again? And you want me to get a grip? The Scottish Parliament was set up in such a way as to make it almost impossible to win an outright majority as the SNP did. That it happened at all was the result of a perfect storm in UK and Scottish politics where Labour voters deserted their party in droves because of the inept leadership of Blair and Brown. A Conservative govt was almost a certainty at Westminster. Unless something like that happens again then this opportunity won't be back for a very, very long time - if ever.

I don't need to get a grip. Wait and see has long gone. It's courage and conviction time. If you don't have it fair enough, vote No. But when you've done so, be aware that that's the ba' burst unless you're on the wrong side of the line and Yes do enough to win this.

[sophia]

That's not to say that there won't be another referendum if the devolved powers aren't satisfactory. It's the Yes vote that would mean no turning back. Get a grip

You seem to be bewildered.

What would stop us voting to reverse a YES vote?

[Reluctant Hero]

Watching anything classified as 'news' over the last two days about this referendum - jaw dropping. As of yesterday, the politics of fear is really in full flow from the establishment. Every untruth, manipulation, exaggeration, disaster scenario and orchestration all designed to question every aspect of your logical and emotional thought processes are all going to be thrown at you over the next eight days.

It's exactly what they want: don't buy it, and get them telt on the 18th.

I used to think that the claim of bias in the BBC used to be stretching it a bit. But "eff" me! This last week has been a full on blast of Unionist propoganda. And no doubt it will be that way until next Thursday. Hopefully all the negativity will begin to back-fire and will be counter-productive.

I just can't understand why given the opportunity to establish a fairer country, we are not all jumping at the chance. Granted there is uncertainty, but there is just as much uncertainty if you vote No!

[Quentin Taranbino]

Sometimes the only mode of transportation is a leap of faith

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It would show Survation aren't following the surge to Yes trend, which has been seen from YouGov and TNS.

And Survation along with Panelbase have been the most Yes friendly posters. So the two most Yes friendly posters show little or no change whilst YouGov and TNS - normally the least friendly show massive rises for Yes.

I know YouGov changed their polling weightings so it may go a long way to explaining that change - they're the ones who appear to be out of kilter with other pollsters.

[MassiveFanDan]

It was one poll that gave all you Yes folk the gumption to rubbish the No campaign. . not so c.ock sure now Eh!

We've been rubbishing the No campaign for three straight years now. Because it's rubbish.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

"Very Interesting" given that due to the utter shitstorm that's going down any poll is interesting?

Or just grabbing their two minutes of fame.

If McWhirter is saying 53 No I would tend to believe him tbh.

Eta - bah. 10% DK is still quite high though imo. I do worry that some these DK's are just feart of saying they're shitebags.

The Bradley effect that both myself and H_B have referred to.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Put me down in the pant wetting shitebag category.

My concern is that up to a certain point, the more informed = more likely to vote Yes rule applies. After a certain point surely a lot of undecideds are reluctant shitebags and the "I need more information" despite never having looked for any dafties.

The debates and social media outrage over BT lady brought a lot of people into looking at the issues and naturally Yes shot up. The DKs at this stage are probably largely no's imo. If Yes was around 45+ including DK's I'd be happy. High 30/low 40s seems too little, too late to me.

On the other hand I can't see today's circus act doing anything but win more Yes votes. I'm still buzzing that this is even a possibility given the polls a few months ago.

A lot of DKs are quite possibly what you'd class as "Aye but naw" - open to the idea but with serious doubts.

[The Shark]

Watching anything classified as 'news' over the last two days about this referendum - jaw dropping. As of yesterday, the politics of fear is really in full flow from the establishment. Every untruth, manipulation, exaggeration, disaster scenario and orchestration all designed to question every aspect of your logical and emotional thought processes are all going to be thrown at you over the next eight days.

It's exactly what they want: don't buy it, and get them telt on the 18th.

All the above. I heard all sorts of rumours about the poll - big swing to Yes, fall in both camps and rise in DKs, No in meltdown etc. What we've known all along is that there is huge machine lined up against the Yes campaign. The fact that Yes is polling 42% on this poll is, frankly, not a bad result. The manipulation of facts and emotion has been something else. I expected it, but we all know what happens when the establishment decides it's time to mobilise and we certainly knew it was coming.

We have to remember that everything will be presented as a blow to Yes. The plus is that it comes with 8 days to go. I honestly would have been more worried if Yes had come out with a 3/4% lead. Complacency would then have been our biggest problem.

This weekend will be crucial. The performance of Mr Farage and his pals may or may not impact, likewise the stroll down Princes St of the family-friendly OL, but whatever the scenario, I think if Yes can hold it's nerve, do what we've been doing for the last 2 years and continue to provide people with a calm and rational argument we'll get there.

It's far from over, and I think todays events and the latest poll will do nothing but strengthen the resolve of the Yes campaign.

And for what it's worth, Darling was in Sauchiehall St today and was roundly booed by passers-by. Not groups of Yes campaigners, just punters who, once his coterie of No supporters had dispersed, voiced their anger at the dishonesty of it all.

Stay strong, keep talking to friends, colleagues and anyone over 55 and we'll get there.

Vote YES

[G-MAN]

The fact it's happening doesn't give you a clue eh?

Courage and conviction for potentially damaging consequences? You need to sit down and think. As for this lunatic fringe who are screaming in people's faces, do you think that's going to swing undecided voters to a Yes? People make their minds up based on facts, not speculative projections from a party who have politicized this debate from the beginning and are completely self serving.

Give me the FACTS then mate.

[invergowrie arab]

And Survation along with Panelbase have been the most Yes friendly posters. So the two most Yes friendly posters show little or no change whilst YouGov and TNS - normally the least friendly show massive rises for Yes.

I know YouGov changed their polling weightings so it may go a long way to explaining that change - they're the ones who appear to be out of kilter with other pollsters.

Yep all the others.

Except TNS. But yeah all the other ones that have released the latest polls.

Even if it is convergence I'm hugely relaxed about Yes being within 2 or 3 points with a week to go. With the voters that the polls don't capture and the break of DKs this is still completely winnable.

If nothing else I will be putting up a "now entering Free Dundee" sign on the swallow roundabout.

[sparky88]

f**k the polls (good or bad) folks and think about this......

The one thing which should comfort people is that No are haemorraging support to Yes on an hourly basis.

All of us are seeing this through our friends, families and work colleagues.

Almost nobody is reporting people swinging to No from Yes.

Yes, there are a lot of No voters out there but the pool of No voters is getting smaller and its not being replenished.

People have been queueing up everywhere to register.

Do we seriously think people are queueing round the block to save the Union?

Seriously?

The pollsters aren't talking to these people.

They aren't talking enough wth first time voters.

They are barely talking to ANYONE and most of them are polling the same bloody people.

Sorry but I don't buy any poll whether it's 60-40 for Yes or 60-40 for No.

They are all flawed. If any of them get close to the result it'll be through sheer luck.

Trust your gut. Unless all your friends are lying to you, the momentum is clearly with Yes.

Thursday will show us whether that momentum has been enough.

I still think people will be hard pressed to ignore the swell of positivity built up over 2 years.

It's not in human nature to feel change in the air and ignore it.

It's CERTAINLY not realistic for young people to vote the same way as pensioners.

When did kids EVER do what that generation told them to do?

There's a revolution coming. Embrace it, stop whining about bad polls and continue to spread the word.

We can all cry on Friday if that effort is in vain but we'll know we did everything we could.

so trust anecdotal evidence over professional poling organisations? Rightio

[strichener]

The facts? That's actually something for you to answer. If Scotland break away from the rest of the UK, there are unresolved questions over currency, pensions, existing businesses and institutions putting investment on hold. The SNP have suggested what might happen if the people they want to split from consent to their wishes. They have presented a picture of WHAT IF. Most of it depends on external parties and events.

As opposed to the what if that Brown offered yesterday. What exactly will Scotland get from a No vote. More powers, More money? More Powers, less money. I demand an answer. And what happens if the parties cannot agree, where is the PLAN B? Or will it just be a case of - oh well we tried, nae agreement so we'll shelve this.

Works both ways.

[strichener]

No it doesn't. What will happen is uncertainty which will have a negative effect on share prices and then potential currency devaluation. None of that is good for anyone. As for devolved power. As I say if things don't improve there's nothing that stops another referendum.......in time.

However, the time spent in a potentially deep economic depression isn't preferable to me or anyone else. I'd rather vote No and wait and see. Rationality is something that's in short supply it seems....

There is no certainty in the Union. If things don't improve? Why do you think we are having this vote? Scotland is sick of waiting for things to improve, poverty is rising, life expectancy is widing to the UK. The time to do something about this is now. I will not abdicate this responsibility and burden my kids with having to put up with the shee hypocricy of Westminster's politicians attempted bribes.