Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Cheese]

Prince Ankit Love for the win pls.

[CarrbridgeSaintee]

Labour for the win.

[Big Fifer]

I knew Labour were going to be favourites going into this but I had a quick look on the exchange a few days ago, SNP were trading at 13.5 and Labour at 1.07! Seems they have it down as an absolute slam dunk for Labour. 

[Suspect Device]

57 minutes ago, Big Fifer said:

I knew Labour were going to be favourites going into this but I had a quick look on the exchange a few days ago, SNP were trading at 13.5 and Labour at 1.07! Seems they have it down as an absolute slam dunk for Labour. 

 

No surprise really. I'd be shocked if it was even close.

In Keegan style I would love it, just love it if Labour didn't win but its not going to happen.

[renton]

43 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

 

No surprise really. I'd be shocked if it was even close.

In Keegan style I would love it, just love it if Labour didn't win but its not going to happen.

That Hamilton seat is fairly Labour leaning and not as has been made out in the press as some kind of Bellweather seat. The SNP need to be polling >15% ahead in national polls (as was the case in 2015 and 2019) to win it. It's really about the margin of Labour victory as a gauge of how well the SNP vote is holding up in the central belt.

Edited October 5, 2023 by renton

[Dunning1874]

Rumours going round that they might have the count in Rutherglen & Hamilton West done by midnight, which you'd think would suggest a shockingly low turnout, reflecting the lack of enthusiasm for either the SNP or Labour. Labour will surely still win it comfortably though and it'll be a disaster for them if they don't, it's a seat they won in 2017.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

13 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Rumours going round that they might have the count in Rutherglen & Hamilton West done by midnight, which you'd think would suggest a shockingly low turnout, reflecting the lack of enthusiasm for either the SNP or Labour. Labour will surely still win it comfortably though and it'll be a disaster for them if they don't, it's a seat they won in 2017.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this was the case, and to be honest who could blame any electorate at a time when politics in Scotland and across the UK is a thoroughly discredited business.  That's not likely to change anytime soon and Labour would do well to avoid crowing too loudly if there is a poor turnout. 

But no doubt they will.

[Lurkst]

19 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Rumours going round that they might have the count in Rutherglen & Hamilton West done by midnight, which you'd think would suggest a shockingly low turnout, reflecting the lack of enthusiasm for either the SNP or Labour. Labour will surely still win it comfortably though and it'll be a disaster for them if they don't, it's a seat they won in 2017.

Is it not always one of the first seats to declare in elections? (Clearly not renowned for large turnouts).

 

[Jim McLean's Ghost]

23 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Rumours going round that they might have the count in Rutherglen & Hamilton West done by midnight, which you'd think would suggest a shockingly low turnout, reflecting the lack of enthusiasm for either the SNP or Labour. Labour will surely still win it comfortably though and it'll be a disaster for them if they don't, it's a seat they won in 2017.

Turnout will also be hit by ID requirements. I don't think the voter ID laws have been a big part of the news for this election but it is the first time in modern times ID is required to vote in scotland. I'm sure a lot of people will have turned up, been turned away and not gone back.

 

[Cardle is Magic]

People will blame the ID issue but I think apathy and the weather will have played a bigger role.

Also the fact they’ll just have to vote again in the GE, which could conceivably happen in 6 months’ time.

[Scotty Tunbridge]

Guy reporting at the count says the Tories may lose their deposit. Never doubt the good people of Hamilton.

[invergowrie arab]

Word on the pavey yesterday was a "good result" for the SNP was within 5000 given the data coming back from canvassing. 

[DAFC.]

Dreadful turnout. Apathy, weather, potential GE soon and issue surrounding ID should mean Labour winning this fairly comfortably. The grey vote should ensure it. If people under 40 cannot be arsed voting (can’t really be blamed) then SNP have no chance. 

[sparky88]

5 minutes ago, DAFC. said:

Dreadful turnout. Apathy, weather, potential GE soon and issue surrounding ID should mean Labour winning this fairly comfortably. The grey vote should ensure it. If people under 40 cannot be arsed voting (can’t really be blamed) then SNP have no chance. 

I'd say the turnout isn't bad for a by election. 

[welshbairn]

Poor night for Labour if they get less than the 60.8% they got in 2010 considering the disgrace of the last SNP MP and the last SNP leader being investigated by the police. The Tories losing their deposit would be fun.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

Is Curtice wearing pedal pushers?

[Bully Wee Villa]

Labour win easily.

 

[renton]

That's a bad one for the SNP, really bad. Well in excess of national polling and any worst case scenarios for that seat.

[Iain]

If this result is reflective of where politics in Scotland is going to go over the coming years then it's going to be a tough time for everyone who doesn't have right wing/unionist views.

[DAFC.]

1 hour ago, Iain said:

If this result is reflective of where politics in Scotland is going to go over the coming years then it's going to be a tough time for everyone who doesn't have right wing/unionist views.

We’ll see how it goes, but I would still be surprised if SNP don’t come out of the next GE with at least 30 seats (ergo the biggest party in Scotland) Their polling suggests they’ll get around 25-30 at the moment anyway, which isn’t THAT bad, considering they have absolutely fucked it recently. 

Their main concern should be trying to get the disenfranchised young vote back onside, as that is their core vote and, at the moment, it certainly seems people under the age of 40 just cannot be arsed bothering to make an effort. Once the GE date is officially set and the momentum starts to build, they’ll probably get themselves back to a position they’ll wish to see themselves in. Despite the fact they’ll lose seats, the bottom line is: the country is still 50/50 on independence, and they’ll be relevant in politics for another generation.