Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[Alert Mongoose]

Based the BBC headline this morning, it would appear I have misunderstood the meaning of the term 'seismic' all my life.   A few more Scottish seats might help them into Westminster but they won't win at majority at Holyrood.

The Tory politician on Radio Scotland this morning was utterly hilarious. What a clown.

[Granny Danger]

54 minutes ago, DAFC. said:

The Chris Iwelumo of open goals missed by SNP to absolutely batter home for generations to come. If people cannot be arsed, the vote will just default to Labour (mostly in the Central Belt) where the auld Labourite Da’s still get out in their numbers, although I do still think the SNP will be relevant in Politics for at least another 15 years. They’ll probably regress to getting slightly more than pre-2015 levels for these GE’s: getting around 8-10 seats from the heelands and country areas. 

If you are not a right-wing loony, Brexit-shagger, or Labourite old duffer, who is out there, in Scotland, for people under 40 to vote for? Politics in the UK as a whole is absolutely horrendous.  

I completely disagree.  I think it will only require five years of Starmer doing f**k all at Westminster for those in Scotland to revert to where they were prior to the recent SNP implosion.

Will that take us clearly over 50% for YES on a continual basis, I honestly don’t know but the standard of living in Scotland will be no better, and arguably worse, after the next Labour government.

The U.K. is a shit show at the moment and if Labour had the nerve and the incentive to take bold steps to improve things then they might succeed but that’s not what today’s Labour Party is about.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Granny Danger

[Fullerene]

Most parties are punished when they cause an un-necessary by-election.

A lot of people were deeply offended by the actions of Margaret Ferrier during lockdown, including those who would normally vote SNP.

(Dominic Cummings may have been wreckless driving up to Durham but she went further and used public transport as well.)

Their one opportunity to give her a massive kick up the backside was to abstain from voting in a by-election for the party she represented.

It doesn't mean they won't vote SNP again.

[Billy Jean King]

Got to laugh at Starmer joining the media bandwagon that this was some sort of seismic shock to politics in Scotland. Labour were 1/33 to win the seat

[DeeTillEhDeh]

There's a number of issues here.

* SNP vote clearly not turning out due to disillusionment 

* The behaviour of the previous incumbent 

* Labour benefiting from national polling but not really bring challenged on their lack of policies

* It was a by-election - so Labour could throw everything at it - not realistic for a GE campaign 

* The Tory vote collapsing to Labour

Part of me wants another Scottish by-election - hopefully will get rid of the completely ineffective Yousaf.

[Granny Danger]

10 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

There's a number of issues here.

* SNP vote clearly not turning out due to disillusionment 

* The behaviour of the previous incumbent 

* Labour benefiting from national polling but not really bring challenged on their lack of policies

* It was a by-election - so Labour could throw everything at it - not realistic for a GE campaign 

* The Tory vote collapsing to Labour

Part of me wants another Scottish by-election - hopefully will get rid of the completely ineffective Yousaf.

Who would you replace Yousaf with?

[orfc]

32 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

There's a number of issues here.

* SNP vote clearly not turning out due to disillusionment 

* The behaviour of the previous incumbent 

* Labour benefiting from national polling but not really bring challenged on their lack of policies

* It was a by-election - so Labour could throw everything at it - not realistic for a GE campaign 

* The Tory vote collapsing to Labour

Part of me wants another Scottish by-election - hopefully will get rid of the completely ineffective Yousaf.

There's no evidence the Tory vote collapsed to labour any more than the SNP vote collapsed to labour. Both their drops can be explained by their past voters just sitting at home

It's just another tiresome entry in the "everyone's a Tory apart from the SNP" bollux that's pedalled on here

[lichtgilphead]

38 minutes ago, orfc said:

There's no evidence the Tory vote collapsed to labour any more than the SNP vote collapsed to labour. Both their drops can be explained by their past voters just sitting at home

It's just another tiresome entry in the "everyone's a Tory apart from the SNP" bollux that's pedalled on here

No evidence!

Only if you ignore every opinion piece in the MSM and direct quotes from the Tories themselves.

But yeah, let's go on believing that every vote for Labour is cast by a newly-born convert so the Socialist cause.

[orfc]

6 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

No evidence!

Only if you ignore every opinion piece in the MSM and direct quotes from the Tories themselves.

But yeah, let's go on believing that every vote for Labour is cast by a newly-born convert so the Socialist cause.

The plural of anecdote is echo chamber 

As I've said before, labour didn't need any new converts, just roughly the same number to vote for them as last time

 

You might as well claim the conservative plummet was lessened by some tartan Tories switching SNP to Tory while the previous tory vote sat at home

[tamthebam]

or based on pictures from their Conference the Tory plummet was caused by the fact they've all snuffed it since the last election

[Richey Edwards]

Not an SNP fan but a lot is being made out of a solitary Labour by-election win in a flip-flop seat.

The SNP are shite but last night is hardly the Scottish Labour resurgence that some are making out.

Edited October 6, 2023 by Richey Edwards

[Granny Danger]

43 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

No evidence!

Only if you ignore every opinion piece in the MSM and direct quotes from the Tories themselves.

But yeah, let's go on believing that every vote for Labour is cast by a newly-born convert so the Socialist marginally to the left of Conservative cause.

FTFY.

[GNU_Linux]

Every-time someone uses the work seismic for the next week or so take a shot


*- I am not liable for any unforeseen consequences as result of this

[Michael W]

The Tories are hardly going to throw their hands up and admit the reason their vote sank is because the UK government is hopelessly shit, at least 18 months into an ongoing mental disintegration and has made the vast majority of the country worse off, are they? 

Easier to palm it off on the desire to give your other enemy a good kicking. 

 

[lichtgilphead]

18 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

FTFY.

Should I have made it more obvious that "Socialist" should have been said as sarcastically as possible?

Edited October 6, 2023 by lichtgilphead

[StellarHibee]

There is no "Tory plummet". Just Tory switching to a more extreme Tory party and the pitifully I'll informed who view Keir Starmers gang as the vote of the left, despite the on going purge over the past several years.

A lot of closet Tory brexiteers on here playing devil's advocate me thinks.

[scottsdad]

The Tories really belong in a political version of the Head's Gone thread. They've been completely taken over by UKIP, folk they used to see as "swivel-eyed loons and fruitcakes". 

Just look at Suella Braverman's speech at the conference. Stoking racial tensions because it furthers her own personal ambitions. Sunak's "agenda" seems to be a list of pet projects, like making people take maths to the age of 18. They need to be out of power, and as soon as humanly possible. 

I just wish Labour could see this, and not constantly get spooked by 1992. Sunak will not pull it out of the bag. Labour will win and they can crack on and offer something for people to believe in. 

[ScotiaNostra]

9 hours ago, ScotiaNostra said:

There will be all sorts of reasons given why but its obvious and people have been saying it for ages now. The snp lost its way, it hasnt governed well. Its main leadership is now out of touch with peoples day to day problems. Independence is still popular but a lot feel the snp wont get us there and while we wait they arent able to run the day to day well enough. 
 

nothing will change those excuses will be made , torys bad will be said, labour torys will be said and the cliff will keep getting closer

 

[Oceanlineayr]

45 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

The Tories really belong in a political version of the Head's Gone thread. They've been completely taken over by UKIP, folk they used to see as "swivel-eyed loons and fruitcakes". 

Just look at Suella Braverman's speech at the conference. Stoking racial tensions because it furthers her own personal ambitions. Sunak's "agenda" seems to be a list of pet projects, like making people take maths to the age of 18. They need to be out of power, and as soon as humanly possible. 

I just wish Labour could see this, and not constantly get spooked by 1992. Sunak will not pull it out of the bag. Labour will win and they can crack on and offer something for people to believe in. 

The sad problem is Starmer, a good chunk of the parliamentary Labour Party and a significant portion of the electorate agree/actively like and support the Conservative stance and position on many policies.

Labour under Starmer are basicially the Conservative Party and the Tories have become the BNP from the mid 2000s.

The sad indictment of the state of UK politics now is that the policies that c*nt Nick Griffin farted out on Question Time in 2009 (I think) are now major planks of the governing party and their Home Secretary.

 

Edited October 6, 2023 by Oceanlineayr
spelling

[sparky88]

7 hours ago, KirkieRR said:

You're probably right about Labour, but I don't think there's anything new about Tories getting a hounding in Scottish seats.

That's true. But the seat had a not insubstantial number of Tory votes in the last election and their vote has almost disappeared.