Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[JS_FFC]

 

 

Another wipeout poll yet Tories are clinging to the hopium of a JLPartners effort that “only” had them 12% behind.

[Highlandmagar]

I believe the JL one more. I am still thinking a hung parliament.

[JS_FFC]

6 minutes ago, Highlandmagar said:

I believe the JL one more. I am still thinking a hung parliament.

You realise the JL poll still points to a Labour majority of 166, right? 
 

Even if you take the JL poll and assume the Tories squeeze 2/3 of the reform vote, Labour STILL get a majority of 34.

 

Are you expecting a major gaffe from Starmer? 

I think you should consider putting your money where your mouth is and back a hung Parliament at 8/1, Lab/Lib coalition at 11/1 or Labour minority government at 20/1.

 

Another bet I like the look of is SNP most seats in Scotland at 9/4

[Highlandmagar]

18 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

You realise the JL poll still points to a Labour majority of 166, right? 
 

Even if you take the JL poll and assume the Tories squeeze 2/3 of the reform vote, Labour STILL get a majority of 34.

 

Are you expecting a major gaffe from Starmer? 

I think you should consider putting your money where your mouth is and back a hung Parliament at 8/1, Lab/Lib coalition at 11/1 or Labour minority government at 20/1.

 

Another bet I like the look of is SNP most seats in Scotland at 9/4

I think the Diane Abbott issue will hang about like a bad smell.

I also think that apathy will be a big factor. 1) the total dissolusionment of politics. 2) Thinking Labour have already won snd wont turn out.

 

Edited May 29 by Highlandmagar

[JS_FFC]

2 minutes ago, Highlandmagar said:

I think the Diane Abbott issue will hang about like a bad smell.

It will not. Absolutely no one in the marginals is refusing to vote Labour because a left wing Corbyn aligned MP isn’t running in Hackney. At worst it’ll cost them a few points in very safe seats and increase Corbyn’s chances of holding his (which got me was already a likelihood even before Abbott got booted).

 

The four most pertinent issues are the economy, the NHS, immigration, and defence. Basically anything outside of those four is white noise. 

[renton]

13 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

It will not. Absolutely no one in the marginals is refusing to vote Labour because a left wing Corbyn aligned MP isn’t running in Hackney. At worst it’ll cost them a few points in very safe seats and increase Corbyn’s chances of holding his (which got me was already a likelihood even before Abbott got booted).

 

The four most pertinent issues are the economy, the NHS, immigration, and defence. Basically anything outside of those four is white noise. 

The irony is that the Great British Public are probably fairly right aligned on immigration and defence, and don't particularly care how the other two work so long as they work better for them without any personal sacrifice.

Basically, the public want a Tory government, but one that actually works. Hence Starmer's positioning. So we'll get 5 years of the same crap and the same results. The polls would have to be wrong on an industrial scale to get anything other than a near one party state.

 

Edited May 29 by renton

[JS_FFC]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

The irony is that the Great British Public are probably fairly right aligned on immigration and defence, and don't particularly care how the other two work so long as they work better for them without any personal sacrifice.

Basically, the public want a Tory government, but one that actually works. Hence Starmer's positioning. So we'll get 5 years of the same crap and the same results. The polls would have to be erong on an industrial scale to get anything other than a near one party state.

 

I could not agree with you more.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

40 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

Are you expecting a major gaffe from Starmer? 

Most people aren't expecting anything from Starmer and that's a huge problem.

[BFTD]

Considering that Diane Abbott is, for a variety of reasons, one of the biggest Labour hate figures for Conservatives - the people they're trying to attract - I really don't see how booting her will negatively affect them at all. Much like Corbyn, if she gets in as an independent, they can rely on her vote in most instances anyway; not that they'll need it for a while.

You could say that nakedly purging Corbyn's chief ally will upset traditional Labour voters, but Sir Keef's correctly decided that he's 100% guaranteed to get their vote regardless. He could take a public shit on Keir Hardie's bust and it wouldn't affect their vote - what are they going to do, exactly? Not vote to give the Tories a shoeing?

[Crùbag]

Check where Labour are... 

 

[BFTD]

Aye, centre-right. Surely nobody's actually surprised by that.

The poor "centrist" Lib Dems, desperately struggling to keep up  

[JS_FFC]

This should not be a surprise. You can slide a thin wedge of paper between the two parties on an economic left/right scale.

 

Labour’s selling points in this election are the reduction in NHS waiting lists, clamping down on violence against women and girls, not doing Rwanda, and most importantly the fact that the Tories of recent years have been woefully incompetent and it’s time to turn the keys of number 10 over to the more professionally run operation. 

[JS_FFC]

Also I call absolutely bollocks on the SNP being seen as libertarian on this scale 

[BFTD]

8 minutes ago, JS_FFC said:

Also I call absolutely bollocks on the SNP being seen as libertarian on this scale 

I was going to mention that. Labour voters seem obsessed with the idea that the SNP are brutally authoritarian, so that must be a real slap in the face  

[JS_FFC]

Just now, BFTD said:

I was going to mention that. Labour voters seem obsessed with the idea that the SNP are brutally authoritarian, so that must be a real slap in the face  

To be honest, both of them strike me as being authoritarian parties. Things like the minimum alcohol pricing and the SNP approach to covid are authoritarian in nature, but then Labour’s outright refusal to consider safe drug consumption areas is equally terrible.

 

The Lib Dems used to have a good record on personal freedom but now they are just outright nimby’s. 

[Suspect Device]

2 hours ago, Crùbag said:

Check where Labour are... 

 

 

Looking at that, I should be voting Green but there is no way in hell I am.

 

Edit: And it's apparently because I'm an auld codger.

 

 

Edited May 29 by Suspect Device

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, Suspect Device said:

 

Looking at that, I should be voting Green but there is no way in hell I am.

 

Edit: And it's apparently because I'm an auld codger.

 

 

Removing the vote from anyone of pension age is totally undemocratic.  I could easily support it.

[Suspect Device]

9 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Removing the vote from anyone of pension age is totally undemocratic.  I could easily support it.

There is the argument that a 90 year old voting the future of a 16 year old is a bit shit but I still believe that everyone over the age of 16 should be allowed to vote.

[ICTChris]

Survation poll for Scotland only

 

 

[Crùbag]

2 hours ago, BFTD said:

I was going to mention that. Labour voters seem obsessed with the idea that the SNP are brutally authoritarian, so that must be a real slap in the face  

 

I've heard some folk gurn that the SNP with their MUP on alcohol and levy on plastic bags is 'totalitarian'.

I guess for the Political Compass, they're looking at policies and voting records on issues like immigration, telecoms snooping, drug laws, trade union rights and rights to protest. Not much between Labour and Tory on those issues.