The Famous Aberdeen - Season 2022/23

[G51]

4 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said:

Of course Mcinnes is partly to blame but that's pretty much where my agreement with your post ends.

There's elements of truth to this but maybe a little simplistic. The start of Mcinnes' reign would suggest manager's definitely do have an impact.

The impact of managers in football is most likely overstated by the media, I'd say there's very little doubt about that. However, Mcinnes maybe isn't a great example as he had more control over the football department than the average modern club. He has to own his failings as well as his successes.

He has never had the tactical nous to regularly achieve unlikely results, but he's good at getting a group of players to achieve the least they're capable of, and maybe a bit more give or take certain variables.

As you allude to, recruitment is key and it stuttered badly after the 2017 cup final when we had to throw together a team every summer in a short window of time. He chased his tail ever since from a recruitment perspective until it eventually unravelled.

 

My theory is that recruitment of players and your injury record sets your floor and your ceiling. As Celtic have proved, even if you have a season from hell, every team has a floor. And even if your name is David Martindale, and you have the lowest budget in the league running at maximum efficiency, there’s a ceiling that you inevitably hit with that.

Every team falls somewhere in between those two values. What determines where you finish in that range comes down to luck, tactics and then other minor factors. Football is a low scoring game so it’s subject to a huge amount of variance, meaning luck has a massive bearing on individual matches.

What did it for McInnes was, as you say, constantly rebuilding the team. But what *really* did it for him was losing Wright to Rangers, Hedges to injury and Watkins to Bristol. The replacements weren’t as good, and we talked on here at the time about the risk of completely rebuilding your forward line in January. Consequently, Aberdeen couldn’t score goals, and that was that really. Blood sacrifices are popular, and the manager is the easiest one to make.

The one thing Cormack can do now to improve Aberdeen’s fortunes has f**k all to do with Glass, Brown or Russell, it’s hiring a good head of recruitment and DOF. That’s what will determine whether Aberdeen are successful.

 

[Dons_1988]

1 minute ago, G51 said:

My theory is that recruitment of players and your injury record sets your floor and your ceiling. As Celtic have proved, even if you have a season from hell, every team has a floor. And even if your name is David Martindale, and you have the lowest budget in the league running at maximum efficiency, there’s a ceiling that you inevitably hit with that.

Yes, I think that is unarguable, particularly in a league competition. There is the occasional freak incident like Leicester (who to their credit used the success to move their floor/ceiling up a bit) but it's not any sort of a sustainable success.

1 minute ago, G51 said:

What did it for McInnes was, as you say, constantly rebuilding the team. But what *really* did it for him was losing Wright to Rangers, Hedges to injury and Watkins to Bristol. The replacements weren’t as good, and we talked on here at the time about the risk of completely rebuilding your forward line in January. Consequently, Aberdeen couldn’t score goals, and that was that really. Blood sacrifices are popular, and the manager is the easiest one to make.

The one thing Cormack can do now to improve Aberdeen’s fortunes has f**k all to do with Glass, Brown or Russell, it’s hiring a good head of recruitment and DOF. That’s what will determine whether Aberdeen are successful.

 

Absolutely agree on personnel, January was a roll of the dice that has backfired badly.

Wouldn't agree that our fortunes have f**k all to do with Glass et al, but it's a fair argument to say recruitment doesn't guarantee success, but it can guarantee failure.

[Illgresi]

43 minutes ago, G51 said:

My theory is that recruitment of players and your injury record sets your floor and your ceiling. As Celtic have proved, even if you have a season from hell, every team has a floor. And even if your name is David Martindale, and you have the lowest budget in the league running at maximum efficiency, there’s a ceiling that you inevitably hit with that.

Every team falls somewhere in between those two values. What determines where you finish in that range comes down to luck, tactics and then other minor factors. Football is a low scoring game so it’s subject to a huge amount of variance, meaning luck has a massive bearing on individual matches.

What did it for McInnes was, as you say, constantly rebuilding the team. But what *really* did it for him was losing Wright to Rangers, Hedges to injury and Watkins to Bristol. The replacements weren’t as good, and we talked on here at the time about the risk of completely rebuilding your forward line in January. Consequently, Aberdeen couldn’t score goals, and that was that really. Blood sacrifices are popular, and the manager is the easiest one to make.

The one thing Cormack can do now to improve Aberdeen’s fortunes has f**k all to do with Glass, Brown or Russell, it’s hiring a good head of recruitment and DOF. That’s what will determine whether Aberdeen are successful.

 

I think I probably agree with your idea that clubs have a max and a min. Which is why I totally disagree with your conclusion, it's totally contradictory to what you said before. If we assume currently Aberdeen's max is 3rd and min is 12th (and the main driver of what level within those boundary conditions we attain is management and coaching) then Glass et al absolutely are critical to Aberdeen's success.

Taking a longer term view, i.e changing those boundary conditions to where 2nd and 1st is acheivable, then the DoF/HoR roles become the critical ones. Realistically, we need to be strong in both areas.

The main factor in ensuring a stable base to mitigate this constant rebuilding, is the youth system, and developing a club style.

Edited April 5, 2021 by Illgresi

[G51]

6 minutes ago, Illgresi said:

I think I probably agree with your idea that clubs have a max and a min. Which is why I totally disagree with your conclusion, it's totally contradictory to what you said before. If we assume currently Aberdeen's max is 3rd and min is 12th (and the main driver of what level within those boundary conditions we attain is management and coaching) then Glass et al absolutely are critical to Aberdeen's success.

Taking a longer term view, i.e changing those boundary conditions to where 2nd and 1st is acheivable, then the DoF/HoR roles become the critical ones. Realistically, we need to be strong in both areas.

The main factor in ensuring a stable base to mitigate this constant rebuilding, is the youth system, and developing a club style.

A couple of things though:

1) I think your range is too wide there - I can't really conceive of a season that would be so bad for Aberdeen that they get relegated, given the money they spend now and the quality of player they still have in goals, defence and midfield. What you've seen from Aberdeen post-January is unsustainably bad - one goal in eight games extrapolates to five goals a season, which is obviously unrealistic. I think the least number of goals Aberdeen have scored in a 38 game season is in the mid-thirties, and that was during some really bad years. Even 99-00 you scored 44. Aberdeen are eventually going to start scoring goals again just because it's unsustainable to be this bad at scoring for this long. Aberdeen fans should recognise this when the goal flurry eventually comes - it doesn't necessarily mean that the issues are fixed.

Aberdeens floor is probably much higher than people think it is. As Scottish football continues to modernise and wage budgets continue to correlate more and more with final position in a table, that floor continues to rise. It's kinda unthinkable to imagine Aberdeen being relegated short of a collapse in finances, and that's likely to be the case for the foreseeable future.

2) I don't necessarily think that the management team is the main determinant of where a team falls within that range, but the truth is I don't really know and my views frequently change on this because no one has ever been able to quantify it. I think injuries are definitely the most important contributor, but after that I'm not sure what's next. Luck is definitely an underrated factor that fans don't like to focus on (because no one really likes the idea of something impacting their fortunes that they can't control). After that? I dunno. You could make a hundred different arguments about what makes teams finish where they do and I'd probably agree with all and none of them.

Perhaps the most important part of a management team isn't about their tactics, but about how they can improve players through training and matches? The obvious counter to that though is how important is a management team to a players development?

I think there are a lot of interesting questions that no one really knows the answer to. And maybe it's best left that way - part of what makes football fun is not knowing the answers to those questions.

 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

1 hour ago, G51 said:

. But what *really* did it for him was losing Wright to Rangers...

 

 

[kingjoey]

2 hours ago, Dons_1988 said:

Mcinnes wasn't a miracle worker to get us into 2nd, we just had Watkins, Wright and Hedges playing every week plus McCrorie and Ferguson both in form, and to a lesser extent Hayes.

There is a clear point the season turned sour and it's the international break after we beat Hibs at home 2-0. We have struggled to look anything like a proper team since then and much of that is due to personnel.

The low standard comment is quite unfair, IMO.

I know that it was the game before that Hibs match, but in reality the clear point of the season when our season turned to buggery was when Scott Brown practiced kung fu on Marly Watkins in the second half of the Celtic semi final. I presume that Brown saw the bigger picture at the time. If he hadn’t put Watkins out for the season, Aberdeen would have gone on to bigger and better things this season, Derek McInnes would be signing a contract extension, and Scott Brown would be facing a season of kicking his heels on the Celtic bench next year. 

[tarapoa]

Exactly.

Brown injured Watkins as a strategic career move to accelerate a new regime.

That Livingston guy deliberately injured Hedges (Ramos style) as they knew they'd get us in the cup and have a chance of catching us in the league.

Sevco took Wright - because they like coming in and taking products of the AFC youth system as it seems to yield more for their first team than Murray Park ever has.

 

 

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

31 minutes ago, kingjoey said:

I know that it was the game before that Hibs match, but in reality the clear point of the season when our season turned to buggery was when Scott Brown practiced kung fu on Marly Watkins in the second half of the Celtic semi final. I presume that Brown saw the bigger picture at the time. If he hadn’t put Watkins out for the season, Aberdeen would have gone on to bigger and better things this season, Derek McInnes would be signing a contract extension, and Scott Brown would be facing a season of kicking his heels on the Celtic bench next year. 

It's been said many times before, but McInnes had stunningly bad luck this season in losing both Watkins and Hedges to long term injuries, and Wright being sold mid-season. 

These 3 were making the team tick, and they were playing well. Creating chances, scoring goals, winning games. 

Then in almost the blink of an eye they were gone. On top of that, McCrorie hasn't looked the same player since his injury/covid absence (I can't remember which one it was), and Ferguson hasn't dealt very well with the pressure of having to carry the whole team. 

We've been awful for months now, but we've had a huge amount of bad luck to deal with as well. If Hibs had lost Nisbet, Boyle and Doidge all in one go and for the entire season, does anybody think they would be 3rd at this moment ?

[d31]

So in conclusion the sooner this season is over the better (but lets give a bit of a half effort in the scottish cup)

[kingjoey]

4 minutes ago, d31 said:

So in conclusion the sooner this season is over the better (but lets give a bit of a half effort in the scottish cup)

Absolutely definitely not. I want our season to last until 22nd May.

[DrewDon]

16 minutes ago, CCB19035 said:

You earn your wages (as inflated as Dereks were) as a manager when the chips are down. 
 

The bottom line is despite the injuries he had more than enough quality at his disposal to have the team performing better. What manager in world football gets a full season and of important players not being injured? 
 

I loathe the injuries argument, he was given plenty backing to build an ample squad, but the fillers weren't good enough, see: Ojo, Main, McLennan, Hernandez. 
 

Chuck in the fact we've got two permanently injured players on decent contracts  who should be in the first team in Devlin and McGeouch. 
 

It all falls at his door, which is why he got the dunt. 

Yeah, it can be true simultaneously that McInnes was a bit unfortunate with injuries this season but that he also didn't do a remotely good enough job of reacting to this misfortune given the resources and personnel available to him.

[SamuraiJock]

Luck around injuries hasn’t helped this year, but Mcinnes didn’t help himself by having zero creative replacement available. We’ve had to replace Watkins, Wright and Hedges with Main/Cosgrove/loanees/Campbell.

I like Dean Campbell but having him doing the sitting role in midfield (which he seems decent at) also makes Ferguson and Mcrorie worse as they have to push further up and none of them create anything.

[d31]

57 minutes ago, kingjoey said:

Absolutely definitely not. I want our season to last until 22nd May.

Yea I acknowledge that but it's feeling a bit of a long shot at the moment. Interesting cup draw though.

[Golden Gordon]

56 minutes ago, SamuraiJock said:

I like Dean Campbell but having him doing the sitting role in midfield (which he seems decent at) also makes Ferguson and Mcrorie worse as they have to push further up and none of them create anything.

Saturday's game was an excellent example of why Campbell should be retained in the holding role. Everything flowed through him, as an out-ball from defence, which allowed him to display composure and a good range of passing. 

If the three of them are playing in the same team, McCrorie should be used in defence and Ferguson further forward, as he carries a goal threat. I agree that they don't work as a midfield three though. 

[DrewDon]

1 hour ago, SamuraiJock said:

Luck around injuries hasn’t helped this year, but Mcinnes didn’t help himself by having zero creative replacement available. We’ve had to replace Watkins, Wright and Hedges with Main/Cosgrove/loanees/Campbell.

I like Dean Campbell but having him doing the sitting role in midfield (which he seems decent at) also makes Ferguson and Mcrorie worse as they have to push further up and none of them create anything.

I have criticised McCrorie on here over the last few months, and he has been poor, but I felt for him a bit on Saturday as he was having to take on creative responsibility and that basically isn't something in his wheelhouse.

I think I'd rather have Campbell than McCrorie as the sitting midfielder against poorer opposition because he is more comfortable on the ball and generally seems to make better decisions. McCrorie would probably be the better option against stronger opposition because he is more physical and a better ball-winner.

[Golden Gordon]

1 minute ago, G-MAN said:

 

 

Composure ? He lost the ball 4 times when put under pressure by a Lge 1 side.

Good range of passing ? 4 times kicked the ball out of play. Considine has to “sprint” 25 yards to stop another pass going out of play.

If Campbell receives the ball with 20 yards space in front of him, his immediate instinct is to pass backwards or pass sideways and put a team mate under pressure.

Slow, ponderous, one dimensional garbage. Back up player at best.

 

 

Ha ha! Not a fan then? I doubt there's anything I could say that could change your mind. I think, given time, his intelligence and ability will intersect and he'll be viewed as a decent player. 

[starryfish]

24 minutes ago, CCB19035 said:

Campbell tried to make things happen. He put one in behind that Ferguson couldn't quite get, that I thought was impressive. It wasn't the obvious pass but it was something different and needed rather than the usual side to side.

 

I was quite critical of him earlier on in the season, but I'd rather have him in there than McCrorie at the moment. 
 

Figuring out McCrories best position is one of the first things Glass has to do. 

McCrorie seems not aggressive enough to play central defence and not good enough on the ball to play midfield. Quite the conundrum for Glass to work out.

[tarapoa]

Campbell's very quickly become our main marmite player.

I like marmite (never tried it on a rowie yet though) and I like Campbell - a lot still to work on, but the raw material is there. Can Brown instill a nasty streak in him?  He's far too much like the nice kind of chappy that any parent would probably welcome their daughter bringing round for tea.

Edited April 5, 2021 by tarapoa

[tarapoa]

6 minutes ago, starryfish said:

McCrorie seems not aggressive enough to play central defence and not good enough on the ball to play midfield. Quite the conundrum for Glass to work out.

On an earlier point made. He was almost unplayable at times earlier in the season - albeit in a functioning team. When I think of Easter Road, Dingwall, Stavanger, Tannadice earlier on........and look at him now, an absolute shadow of the player he was.

It was Covid that kept him out, thanks to the SFA f**k up round about the time the whole season started going pete tong.  Maybe a reminder that Covid can have a longer term effect on some much worse than others. Presuming they monitor his stats in terms of running power, energy etc - and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a real drop off here.

Edited April 5, 2021 by tarapoa

[Golden Gordon]

33 minutes ago, CCB19035 said:

Campbell tried to make things happen. He put one in behind that Ferguson couldn't quite get, that I thought was impressive. It wasn't the obvious pass but it was something different and needed rather than the usual side to side.

 

I was quite critical of him earlier on in the season, but I'd rather have him in there than McCrorie at the moment. 
 

Figuring out McCrories best position is one of the first things Glass has to do. 

Yep, hopefully Glass lives up to his reputation for player development and works out where McCrorie is best placed. Seem to remember the Chelsea buns saying that this was the issue with him with them as well.