mid-table Posted September 9, 2014 Author Share Posted September 9, 2014 Not put anything on yet, but Europe have drifted to 1.7 at Coral, the double is available at 2.38, which seems more appealing than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killiesquirrel Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 (Cba'd working out myself) how much would that return? Are you reckoning you'll go for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy. Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 Thoughts please; I'm thinking of taking out an interest free £3,000 loan, and sticking it on a double of Europe to win the Ryder Cup, and No to win the independence referendum. If it comes in, I'm around £2,800 in profit within a month. If it doesn't, I have £3,000 of debt that needs paid back in the next 18 months. The two things you bet on are probably the two most unpredictable things you could possibly bet on. Baws oot indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 The two things you bet on are probably the two most unpredictable things you could possibly bet on. Baws oot indeed They're nowhere near "the two most unpredictable things you could bet on". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mid-table Posted September 9, 2014 Author Share Posted September 9, 2014 (Cba'd working out myself) how much would that return? Are you reckoning you'll go for it?2.38 for the double currently. I think I might go for it, but for £1,500 rather than £3k. I will decide towards the end of this week. The two things you bet on are probably the two most unpredictable things you could possibly bet on.That is just not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Strange things can happen at the Ryder Cup. When I saw this thread, I couldn't help but recall this http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7243656.stm. I think that Europe winning is a good bet but depends on your point of view exactly how good. I remain certain that Scotland will vote no next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 1.24 again, the odds on this thing are like a yo-yo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanny paddery Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 1.24 again, the odds on this thing are like a yo-yo.No they are not, they exactly follow announcements of strategy from either side, if you had inside info you could make a fortune! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted September 13, 2014 Share Posted September 13, 2014 No they are not, they exactly follow announcements of strategy from either side, if you had inside info you could make a fortune! Doesn't mean they're not going up and down. They clearly are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bing (2) Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Betfair are paying out on a 'NO'...........on their sportsbook. http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-betfair-pay-out-on-no-vote-1-3543402 Tory owner.......good publicity..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Betfair are paying out on a 'NO'...........on their sportsbook. http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-betfair-pay-out-on-no-vote-1-3543402 Tory owner.......good publicity..... They might have to pay out about 20p. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/09/16/1971862/no-betfair-has-not-just-called-the-scottish-referendum/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 They might have to pay out about 20p. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/09/16/1971862/no-betfair-has-not-just-called-the-scottish-referendum/ £7.9m traded on No on the Exchange so far suggests they're probably paying out quite a bit more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
German Jag Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 £7.9m traded on No on the Exchange so far suggests they're probably paying out quite a bit more than that. They're only paying out on what's been bet on their Sportbook. (See the asterisk and disclaimer at the bottom). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 They're only paying out on what's been bet on their Sportbook. (See the asterisk and disclaimer at the bottom). I know that. My point was that if there has been close to £10m traded on the exchange, with nearly £8m of it on the No option, their sportsbook has probably seen a fair amount of action as well. I know welshbairn was being facetious, but I'd imagine they'll actually have paid out a decent sum there if the exchange betting was anything to go by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I know that. My point was that if there has been close to £10m traded on the exchange, with nearly £8m of it on the No option, their sportsbook has probably seen a fair amount of action as well. I know welshbairn was being facetious, but I'd imagine they'll actually have paid out a decent sum there if the exchange betting was anything to go by. The odds are far better on the exchange, you'd have to be an idiot to bet on the sportsbook, and certainly with large stakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nightmare Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 The odds are far better on the exchange, you'd have to be an idiot to bet on the sportsbook, and certainly with large stakes. Well that's pretty much the problem: there are just so many idiots out there. Just recently I've had to tell two people I know who have been using Betfair, that the exchange even exists. They'd been betting exclusively on the sportsbook. When you sign up to Betfair now, the site defaults to sportsbook with the very intention of hoping that mugs will take shite odds because they don't know the difference between that and the exchange. In a world where people are quite happy for the likes of William Hill and Ladbrokes to essentially steal money from them, it doesn't surprise me that Betfair want in on that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Well that's pretty much the problem: there are just so many idiots out there. Just recently I've had to tell two people I know who have been using Betfair, that the exchange even exists. They'd been betting exclusively on the sportsbook. When you sign up to Betfair now, the site defaults to sportsbook with the very intention of hoping that mugs will take shite odds because they don't know the difference between that and the exchange. In a world where people are quite happy for the likes of William Hill and Ladbrokes to essentially steal money from them, it doesn't surprise me that Betfair want in on that as well. I read somewhere that the payout was about £100,000 which sounds plausible. Even if there's a Yes vote they'll have had their money's worth of publicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Betfair exchange markets tend to predict the outcome of elections extremely accurately. Very little chance of them having to pay out twice. When you sign up to Betfair now, the site defaults to sportsbook with the very intention of hoping that mugs will take shite odds because they don't know the difference between that and the exchange. In a world where people are quite happy for the likes of William Hill and Ladbrokes to essentially steal money from them, it doesn't surprise me that Betfair want in on that as well. Betfair have been mismanaging parts of their exchange almost from the start. Just to give a quick example, when betting on baseball the listed pitcher has to start the game or all bets are void. Particularly late in the season, teams change their starting pitcher on the day of the game and Betfair never ever used to check so bets ended up being voided and people who knew about the change couldn't bet on these games. After years of complaining (baseball used to account for the vast majority of my betting) we came up with an agreement where I had to tell the people operating the Betfair markets about pitching changes. At various points they even emailed me asking when games started. I gave up betting on baseball on Betfair a while back and now the markets are hopelessly mismanaged again. More to the point, last season they offered a flat rate of 0.75% commission on all Asian Handicaps and Total Goals markets (not Over/Under but the same thing on a different market). I specifically asked at the beginning of August if it was continuing this season and they told me definitely not. Then last week I saw someone saying on the forum that they were offering commission rebates for the difference between commission paid and the 0.75%. I contacted them again to ask about this and was told it wasn't true. I hadn't used Betfair this season at all, but placed a couple of winning Asian Handicap bets at the weekend to see what happened. I got the rebate the next day, so that I paid 0.75% commission. The person at Betfair I spoke to about this couldn't explain what was going on. Eventually I had them confirm the 0.75% commission offer did exist, but nowhere on the site is it publicised, and unless you use the Betfair app to visit obscure handicap markets, it shows at 5% market base rate everywhere. Since they floated in 2010, revenues have not been high enough so they are trying to push their sportsbook, casino, poker and games of chance at the expense of the exchange, which is being allowed to go down the toilet to a large extent. Not that long from now, I wouldn't be too surprised if the Betfair exchange did not exist any more. Combine that with the only reasonable bookmaker withdrawing from the UK, and it's not an easy time to be a successful gambler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Betfair exchange markets tend to predict the outcome of elections extremely accurately. Very little chance of them having to pay out twice. Maybe so, but this is a very unusual vote, and the pollsters admit to struggling with methodology as they've got little in the way of data on comparable votes to compare it to. And most of the money going on No is from outside Scotland, and the money going on Yes is from inside, according to William Hill and McBookies. I'm betting both ways, so I'm covered unless the Yes vote is between 49 and 50%, and stand to win a nice sum if the vote is Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue4578 Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Most people, however much they may or may not like being governed from London (or hate the English in general), will not vote for financial uncertainty. Personally I wouldn't back Yes even if it was 50/1. Will be interested to see how many people do, but otherwise I will be glad when it's all over as it's starting to get a bit annoying even for an English bystander. Some of the stuff Yes supporters are sharing/retweeting on socal media is nonsense of the highest order. Hopefully Salmond will do the decent thing and resign on Friday as well, but that's another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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