Holyrood '16 polls and predictions

[Sooky]

So if yous lose 3 points by the next election but the numbers go up, that's a good thing ? I wouldn't say so.

Obviously not, no. I agree that in general a % share is more important. I'm just trying to make the point that when the number of people voting Tory increase, you can make the claim that they're not dying out.

[Granny Danger]

I think the 'dying out' argument can be applied to Scottish Labour but not, sadly, to Scottish Conservatives. There will be plenty of young people born in Scotland every year who will grow up in households where they will accept and embrace the selfish, self-centred and entitled views of their Tory parents.

Without ever knowing or coming into contact with under privileged people they will accept and embrace the idea that these people's poverty is wholly their own fault and if they would just 'put their minds to it' then they would be able to escape the ongoing cycle of poverty that may have effected two or more generations of their families.

Even when we inevitably achieve independence these young, spoilt, arrogant idiots will still be around; and they will grow into old, spoilt, arrogant idiots. Fortunately their views will have little impact on a society that, For the most, rejects their ethos of greed and self-interest.

[Gordon EF]

Obviously not, no. I agree that in general a % share is more important. I'm just trying to make the point that when the number of people voting Tory increase, you can make the claim that they're not dying out.

Not necessarily.

A %age of people will not vote in any given election but we can assume that, of those, quite a few would vote for a certain party and just didn't vote for whatever reason. When the turnout goes up, by say 10%, each party's share should also increase 10%, or else you could argue that they've lost supporters, even if they haven't lost voters (technically.

Turnout in Scotland increased significantly in 2015 but the Tory vote only increased, in absolute terms, a very small amount.

You could argue that Tory supporters (potential voters) are more likely to vote than those of other parties (and I'd think you'd be correct) and so that argument doesn't hold for them as much as other parties but the Tory increase was so small, I think it does.

Only those with a very superficial understanding of elections and statistics, or those clasping at straws, would see this as a good result for the Scottish Tories.

[Gordon EF]

Tory vote up 5% absolutely.

Turnout up 7%.

[Sooky]

Only those with a very superficial understanding of elections and statistics, or those clasping at straws, would see this as a good result for the Scottish Tories.

I don't particularly see it as a good result, but I don't see it as a bad one either. From a Scottish perspective, it was fairly average. I thought we had a great chance at increasing our number of seats but of course narrowly missed out in Berwickshire (where I thought we stood a better chance than Dumfriesshire). It seems like the Tory vote in Scotland will always hold up at around 15%.

[Fide]

Isn't Lex just the cutest?

[Thumper]

The forecast has us just 13 seats behind Labour at the minute. If current trajectories continue that gap will have closed yet further by next May.

If that gap closes it'll be entirely due to Labour losing even more seats. There's no Tory resurgence: Ruth Davidson is tolerated as a sensible-sounding voice of opposition who unlike most Tories has actually heard of self-awareness, but this simply shores up the existing Tory vote (and maybe annoys that significant chunk of it which is still rabidly homophobic, which is always a good thing). When push comes to shove, the "aspirational voters" that English campaigns are based on break along the "am I a c**t" / "am I not a c**t" lines in Scotland, which is not going to significantly change in future.

[Elixir]

Ruth Davidson is fucking awful, btw.

[LongTimeLurker]

Will be interesting to see how UKIP do on the regional list next year. An anti-devolution stance with some Nigel style right wing populism thrown in would put them closer to a lot of the core Tory vote than the Conservatives are under Ruth Davidson.

Also think there's a niche on the regional list for a pro-Union party to the left of Labour to exploit and politics like nature tends to abhor a vacuum.

[invergowrie arab]

Will be interesting to see how UKIP do on the regional list next year. An anti-devolution stance with some Nigel style right wing populism thrown in would put them closer to a lot of the core Tory vote than the Conservatives are under Ruth Davidson.

Also think there's a niche on the regional list for a pro-Union party to the left of Labour to exploit and politics like nature tends to abhor a vacuum.

Ukip will do f**k all other than hoover up Tory votes which is nice.

There is no space left of labour for a pro union party as the idea of progressive politics goes so hand in hand with independence now. The idea of the Union and Westminster being able to deliver on the aspirations of social democratic, green or socialist scotland is laughable.

[Gordon EF]

Will be interesting to see how UKIP do on the regional list next year. An anti-devolution stance with some Nigel style right wing populism thrown in would put them closer to a lot of the core Tory vote than the Conservatives are under Ruth Davidson.

Also think there's a niche on the regional list for a pro-Union party to the left of Labour to exploit and politics like nature tends to abhor a vacuum.

It will be interesting to see if UKIP can scrape together enough list votes to get a seat or two. I think the Greens got 2 seats off around 4.5% of the list votes last time. With that likely to increase next year (from both SNP and Labour voters probably), UKIP may be looking at having to get around 5% nationally to get a seat.

Given that the Tories get the majority of their MSPs from the list, any significant shift from Tory list voters to UKIP would probably damage the Tories a lot. Second preference list votes are only really OK when your 1st choice is going to win a few FPTP seats.

It would be funny if a bit of the Tory vote splintered off to UKIP only let the Greens hoover up a few of their list seats.

[LongTimeLurker]

There is no space left of labour for a pro union party as the idea of progressive politics goes so hand in hand with independence now. The idea of the Union and Westminster being able to deliver on the aspirations of social democratic, green or socialist scotland is laughable.

We'll see what happens, but if a left-wing unity organisation like TUSC got their act together between now and the Holyrood election, and in the interim Labour lurched right at Westminster back into centre-right Blairite territory and well away from Labour's traditional core, all a left leaning pro-Union or constitutionally neutral alternative need is just over 5% to start getting MSPs on the list and to start causing major problems for Labour if there is another SNP landslide on the constituency side of things. Tommy Sheridan and co achieved that in the past with a hard left platform, as things stand at the moment it would be possible to be more moderate than that and still have a clear ideological gap from Labour and the SNP. With a lot of ex-MPs floating about, who won't get anywhere near Labour's Holyrood list, recruiting some reasonably high profile candidates for that is also likely to be doable.

[Fide]

Has anyone heard much about this "Scottish Syriza", set to stand in Holyrood next year? It seems to be a coming together of the SSP, the RIC and Left Movement, whoever they are..

Could be interesting.

[LongTimeLurker]

There was an article in the Sunday Herald about it apparently:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/scottish-syriza-to-stand-at-next-holyrood-election.126970540

Looks more constitutionally neutral or independence leaning than pro-Union. The problem groups like this will have is sorting out the usual far left sectarianism.

[sparky88]

Has anyone heard much about this "Scottish Syriza", set to stand in Holyrood next year? It seems to be a coming together of the SSP, the RIC and Left Movement, whoever they are..

Could be interesting.

I don't see why aren't getting behind their comrades the SNP?

[John Lambies Doos]

I don't see why aren't getting behind their comrades the SNP?

^ piss poor response

[an86]

Has anyone heard much about this "Scottish Syriza", set to stand in Holyrood next year? It seems to be a coming together of the SSP, the RIC and Left Movement, whoever they are..

Could be interesting.

I give it ten minutes before they all start sniping at each other and fall out. The sensible left wingers who aren't voting SNP will go to the Greens, where they have a stable setup and a leader who can communicate well.

[Enigma]

Ruth Davidson is fucking awful, btw.

Wouldn't say that but she seems to be prone to loosing the head a wee bit. The Russians on our doorstep stuff from the referendum springs to mind. The mask slipped a bit there she seems quite an angry person at times. Think her problem will be she can't command the cross party respect Goldie did, a woman she can't hold a candle to. Tories are sitting at their core mid-teen % wise. It won't change significantly in 2016. The fact some would celebrate it going up, even by around 1% is telling.

[sparky88]

^ piss poor response

pick the irony out of that one

[Crùbag]

I give it ten minutes before they all start sniping at each other and fall out. The sensible left wingers who aren't voting SNP will go to the Greens, where they have a stable setup and a leader who can communicate well.

This is probably what will happen.

IIRC, the SSP were themselves a union of previously disparate groupings. Was pleased when they got 6 MSPs but then...