Holyrood '16 polls and predictions

[Mr Rational]

We would probably lose again if it's in that timescale.

Best wait 10....

[Poet of the Macabre]

I do hope Scottish politics heats up a bit in the New Year ahead of Holyrood elections. It's been terribly dull for months.

[Granny Danger]

I have to admit that I'm a bit perplexed at the demands for the SNP to do something radical. Approaching 9 years in Government and currently well over 50% in the polls (heavily weighted toward younger voters) does not strike me as a party in need of doing something different.

Their role just now is to competently govern Scotland and mitigate what they can from the damaging cuts coming from Westminster until we are either:

1. Independent or

2. The better together promises start to materialise

One of the above two scenarios will happen within the next 5 or 6 years..... I'm fairly confident which one my money is on.

There are two 'motivations' for politicians to do or not do something. One is for political reasons, i.e. a belief that it is the right thing to do, and one is for electoral reasons, i.e. will it win or lose votes.

You can get away with governing by doing thinks solely or mainly for electoral reasons for only so long, I would go as far to say that politicians whose main motivation is electoral do not deserve to be in politics.

I am not a nationalist by any means but certainly believe an independent Scotland is the only hope for a better and more just society in this country, I think support for the SNP comes largely from people who hold a similar view. So ongoing support for the SNP will continue so long as folk see independence as the goal and the SNP as the mechanism to achieve that goal.

However in my opinion it would be very unfortunate that the Scottish Government to pursue a 'conservative' approach to governing whilst the fight for independence continues.

As I've said previously, the real test of their political direction will be when greater and more flexible tax raising powers are made available.

[renton]

I believe the powers that they have are limited, however one of the few redistributive options they have is in relation to local taxation in which they have chosen to freeze the council tax for 9 years with a severe impact on local Council services. They couldn't make changes during their minority government but they've had almost five years of majority.

Of course the real litmus test will be when further taxation powers are available.

I seriously don't believe the SNP will go into the election promising to retain the freeze. The commission on local tax has now reported and loks to favour a hybrid system of re-banded council tax alongside a local income tax, for me, that would seem to suggest the SNP view has prevailed, given their own predaliction for a local income tax previously. So to me, that suggests they will probably endorse those findings.

As you and I discussed previously, I don't think the Calman tax powers are wortha damn, and a flat 1p tax rise across all bands would be political suicide, as well as being text book regressive. HOw they intend to manipulate the Smith powers when they come is any one's guess.

In terms of radical things I'd like to see the SNP embrace:

• A much stronger line on land reform and the attendent Land Value Tax. It would raise local revenue that could not be tax dodged, as well as being a progressive tax. It would make large tracts of land in Scotland far more productive and open up the country to much fairer ownership
• A digital currency trial: I just really like this idea, try it out in one city, or council region. it's innovative, would potentially open up new digital industries, would help keep revenue in the country and act as a one of dividend on opening. It would potentially lower business costs for those trading in it as well. Running parallel currecncies would also help insulate scotland from wider global economic issues and would obviously help the Indy issue.
• Reform local councils: break them up into far smaller units, say one for every 10,000 people. They'd be too small to operate services entirely by themselves and would have to seek flexible partnerships with neighbouring councils. This would hopefully help lower costs across the board, but mor eimportantly would stimulate new and original ideas for solving local problems while keeping democracy far closer to home. It might also help the relationship between Holyrood and the councils if the individual councils are too small to be used by Labour to bypass ScotGov, thus leading to more devolved powers at a local level.

[Baxter Parp]

It quite clearly is. As a parent that is asked to pay for copies of course notes that the school cannot afford the photocopy then cash is a real issue.

What in hell's name are they photocopying stuff for in this day and age?

[Baxter Parp]

Like I say one of the few redistributive policies they have at present. Anyway I'm glad you think they're radical enough and I hope you will feel the same as their powers increase.

I think they do well given the restrictive powers that they have. You've given one example of something that you feel that they haven't acted strongly enough on so presumably there must be other issues that make you think they aren't radical enough on or you're just saying stuff without thinking about it hard enough first.

[Baxter Parp]

'My party right or wrong' was/is one of the big failings of SLab, it's important that it doesn't become a mantra for the SNP.

The freeze on Council Tax has been damaging; it's is a progressive tax however flawed and their are mechanisms to ensure the worst off don't have to pay.

The monies available to the Scottish Government is finite and money diverted to local authorities to try to ameliorate the effects of the freeze simply means less to spend elsewhere.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34326185

"The Scottish Parliament's information centre has been looking at the figures.

It found extra cash given by the Scottish government to councils was worth slightly more than they would have raised by increasing council tax.

But the research also suggested councils' share of the Scottish budget has been squeezed slightly."

Pish.

[Granny Danger]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34326185

"The Scottish Parliament's information centre has been looking at the figures.

It found extra cash given by the Scottish government to councils was worth slightly more than they would have raised by increasing council tax.

But the research also suggested councils' share of the Scottish budget has been squeezed slightly."

Pish.

No sure what the 'pish' bit means at the end of your post.

[strichener]

What in hell's name are they photocopying stuff for in this day and age?

Because they haven't got the funds to give everyone an iPad.

I have yet to see a paperless office, why do you think schools do not use paper?

[strichener]

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34326185

"The Scottish Parliament's information centre has been looking at the figures.

It found extra cash given by the Scottish government to councils was worth slightly more than they would have raised by increasing council tax.

But the research also suggested councils' share of the Scottish budget has been squeezed slightly."

Pish.

The pish bit is that the Scottish Government think they can calculate this. The whole point of the freeze is that Edinburgh decide what additional funding is required based on the agreements with COSLA. This gets to the heart of the issue which is that each Local Authority would have had the ability to increase their own council tax band D rates and not be dictated to by the SG and it's centralised policies.

[vikingTON]

Local authorities took the piss out of raising rates between 1999 and 2007 under an incompetent Lib-Lab administration - which is why the SNP's stance remains popular. No tears are being shed for 'embattled' local authorities, who squandered huge sums raised from local taxpayers in the good times and still routinely spunk their resources on absolute shite like flower-beds for central reservations.

Getting rid of them altogether and having civil servants deliver centrally-based policies would be far more efficient for a small state than giving Clackmannanshire or Inverclyde Council and their tragic, fourth-rate politicians control of any finances. They've proven themselves to be unfit to look after a school tuck shop fund.

[invergowrie arab]

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/snp-increases-election-poll-lead-over-labour-1.916752

According to the Courier:

The SNP has extended its lead over Labour despite facing sustained criticism on devolved issues including the closure of the Forth Road Bridge.

The media would do well to remember the difference between them reporting uproar and disaster and the lived experience of Scots.

This bullshit is doing nothing to affect the polls because the SNPbaaad doesn't chime with how most Scots experience devolved government.

[Baxter Parp]

No sure what the 'pish' bit means at the end of your post.

It means I think your post is pish.

[Ivo den Bieman]

I seriously don't believe the SNP will go into the election promising to retain the freeze. The commission on local tax has now reported and loks to favour a hybrid system of re-banded council tax alongside a local income tax, for me, that would seem to suggest the SNP view has prevailed, given their own predaliction for a local income tax previously. So to me, that suggests they will probably endorse those findings.

As you and I discussed previously, I don't think the Calman tax powers are wortha damn, and a flat 1p tax rise across all bands would be political suicide, as well as being text book regressive. HOw they intend to manipulate the Smith powers when they come is any one's guess.

In terms of radical things I'd like to see the SNP embrace:

• A much stronger line on land reform and the attendent Land Value Tax. It would raise local revenue that could not be tax dodged, as well as being a progressive tax. It would make large tracts of land in Scotland far more productive and open up the country to much fairer ownership

• Reform local councils: break them up into far smaller units, say one for every 10,000 people. They'd be too small to operate services entirely by themselves and would have to seek flexible partnerships with neighbouring councils. This would hopefully help lower costs across the board, but mor eimportantly would stimulate new and original ideas for solving local problems while keeping democracy far closer to home. It might also help the relationship between Holyrood and the councils if the individual councils are too small to be used by Labour to bypass ScotGov, thus leading to more devolved powers at a local level.

I like these two ideas in particular.

Ultimately Scotland should be as decentralised as possible, and have decision making made at as local and as accountable a level as possible. These two policies would move in that direction a huge amount and involve people a little more in shaping their area, rather than leaving it to puffed-up octogenarians who've been councillors since the coronation.

The probelm with over-centralisation is that it encourages people to become "consumers" of "corporate" local government services rather than active citizens helping tp shape what's delivered and to what cost.

[Granny Danger]

It means I think your post is pish.

If the Scottish Government is using part of its revenue to alleviate the costs of not increasing the Council Tax then it has less money to spend on other devolved areas, for example Health and Higher Education. I thought you would maybe understand that but obviously not.

[Baxter Parp]

If the Scottish Government is using part of its revenue to alleviate the costs of not increasing the Council Tax then it has less money to spend on other devolved areas, for example Health and Higher Education. I thought you would maybe understand that but obviously not.

Because of the Council Tax Freeze, the Scottish Government will have saved money on funding Council Tax Reductions. Money that can be spent on other devolved areas, for example Health and Higher Education. I thought you would maybe understand that but obviously not.

[Granny Danger]

Because of the Council Tax Freeze, the Scottish Government will have saved money on funding Council Tax Reductions. Money that can be spent on other devolved areas, for example Health and Higher Education. I thought you would maybe understand that but obviously not.

Now that is pish. You're suggesting that the revenue to the Scottish Government over the last nine years is no different from what it would have been had Council tax risen, say at the rate of RPI, over that period. Maybe you should think before you respond thereby not embarrassing yourself any further.

[ICTChris]

The SNP will obviously win massively, they need to have a laugh about this. What can they do and still win?

They should make it a proper challenge. Say, Pete Wishart has to phone up 100 people randomly and call them arseholes. Make one of their party political broadcasts consist of John Swinney eating a live octopus, ala Oldboy. Maybe Nicola Sturgeon could shoot a puppy with a captive bolt pistol before FMQs.

[Baxter Parp]

Now that is pish. You're suggesting that the revenue to the Scottish Government over the last nine years is no different from what it would have been had Council tax risen, say at the rate of RPI, over that period. Maybe you should think before you respond thereby not embarrassing yourself any further.

I'm not suggesting that, I'm pointing out that it isn't as simple as you're presenting it.

[Granny Danger]

I'm not suggesting that, I'm pointing out that it isn't as simple as you're presenting it.

No you're backtracking because you realise how daft your assertion was.

There's nothing 'simple' about the issue and there's no absolute rights and wrongs. My view is that the SNP government should not have frozen Council Taxes as it is one of they few progressive tax raising powers they have and one where they can mitigate against the effects on the least well off.