strichener Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 6 hours ago, MixuFruit said: This is from around the build up to indyref and is quite an interesting read in terms of comparing different currency options for Scotland. It's a shame the debates were so much heat and not much light as this kind of thing would have been better as a discussion point. https://www.niesr.ac.uk/sites/default/files/publications/dp415.pdf One of the interesting things it suggests is because there will be a need to rapidly pay down inherited share of UK government debt in order to demonstrate credibility with investors considering buying bonds issued by an independent Scotland, one of the only ways to do that quickly would be to swap oil & gas assets for debt. Something @Detournement shouts about a lot on here is the baffling reluctance of the Scottish government to have any public energy company bidding for renewables, but you wonder if they're doing so in order to signal what they'd do in a future scenario like this. They estimate (based on yields at that time which were much higher) that an independent Scotland could expect to offer 0.7% more yield on a 10 year bond, which given the UK government yield just now is 0.3% gives you some idea about what the 'new country' premium would be. Expensive but not crazily so. They actually estimated a range which was between 72 and 165 basis points above the UK. They also stated "there is greater statistical precision over the upper bound estimate" and "but in some circumstances it is conceivable that an independent Scotland might struggle to issue its own bonds and therefore could not make payment" To meet EU borrowing limits within 10 years of independence, they estimate a > 5% fiscal tightening (or austerity as it has been called) Against these negatives, there are positives such as the discussion around debt share and how it is extremely difficult for rUK to force iScotland to pay anything. All in all it was a very good document for having adult conversations around the finances of iScotland. Much of it is now out of date although the Growth Commission and the IFS have both detailed separate research more recently using later figures. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 The debt is a complete red herring, but it will scare people 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 16 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: On the 60% debt to GDP thing that underpins the idea the first ten years of an independent Scotland would be austere, at least in this report that's discussed as a eurozone, not an EU membership criterion. I hadn't quite twigged the distinction. Got a link to an IFS study? Here is an opinion piece from the IFS https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13072 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 20, 2020 Share Posted November 20, 2020 33 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said: The debt is a complete red herring, but it will scare people Charles V and his son Philip II bankrupted Spain like 5 times while trying to fight the rest of Europe and people still kept giving them money after it. I think we'll be grand. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, strichener said: Here is an opinion piece from the IFS https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13072 How is another ten or so years of austerity be different from staying in the union? We've had eleven recently so far under the union, please explain how being independent would be worse than staying with this neo-liberal hell. Edited November 21, 2020 by Baxter Parp 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boo Khaki Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 You obviously never got the message. "Things are shite" is supposedly a ringing endorsement of the Union. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 It's all just virtual money and can be reset. It's all just nonsense -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 2 hours ago, MixuFruit said: Is your pension fund virtual? How would you feel if the pretend number on your statement didn't go up, and the pretend number in your bank account was lower than the pretend number on your bills? Do you think it would influence how you vote? Is your pension fund dependent on UK economics or world economics? If Scotland was independent would your pension fund suddenly only invest in Scottish stocks? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said: Is your pension fund dependent on UK economics or world economics? If Scotland was independent would your pension fund suddenly only invest in Scottish stocks? My with and myself have SIPPs, we invest in funds rather than individual stocks (shares). Hardly any of our funds are invested in U.K. based companies. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said: Is your pension fund dependent on UK economics or world economics? If Scotland was independent would your pension fund suddenly only invest in Scottish stocks? If the value of your share in it and the shares held by it are denominated in Sterling, it’s quite dependent on UK economics. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Just now, Ad Lib said: If the value of your share in it and the shares held by it are denominated in Sterling, it’s quite dependent on UK economics. A blast from the past. How are you? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: A blast from the past. How are you? There’s something strangely comforting about the fact that Baxter Parp farts out the same old nonsense as he did back in the day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: A blast from the past. How are you? 1 minute ago, Ad Lib said: There’s something strangely comforting about the fact that Baxter Parp farts out the same old nonsense as he did back in the day. Glad to hear it. I’m fine too thanks. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 Is your pension fund virtual? How would you feel if the pretend number on your statement didn't go up, and the pretend number in your bank account was lower than the pretend number on your bills? Do you think it would influence how you vote? Eh... And pray tell why my pension fund (based on current conditions), not to mention global stocks and shares would be any different under UK or independent Scotland? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 On 19/11/2020 at 01:44, stumobir said: I’ve lurked this forum for years, perfectly happy to sit back and read other people’s opinions on just about anything. Felt the need tonight, for the first time ever, to comment just to say how much this auld, jakie cünt makes my skin crawl. So blinkered by his own self-loathing that he can’t see how fúcked up and backwards his own hypocritical and contradictory positions are. I’m pretty sure if I met him I’d hate him but instead I just pity that he has such a sad existence, probably rejected by his English buddies and reduced to being the token Jock, apologising for his accent and laughing at the jokes of him being a tightarse and an alchy (at least one is likely to be true), just happy to be there anyway. I bet he even has different voices for different groups of people. Servile, pathetic excuse for a man. Please feel free to post more frequently 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 On 20/11/2020 at 08:13, MixuFruit said: Interesting thread criticising Andrew Wilson's ideas about borrowing a lot of sterling post independence. Jesus f**k the comments in that thread. So much genuine hatred 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 On 20/11/2020 at 12:42, NotThePars said: My dentist said he's known Jason Leitch for years if you want plausible anecdotes that conveniently justify your opinion of a public figure. Carol Smillie is my half cousin and didn't let her dad walk her down the aisle, instead asking the guy that hosted Wheel of Fortune with her instead. Your move Kasparov 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, MixuFruit said: From Macfarlane or just randoms replying? Randoms This extremely well balanced and sound dude for eg Edited November 21, 2020 by madwullie 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 38 minutes ago, madwullie said: Randoms This extremely well balanced and sound dude for eg Does he want to wait until after the end of the transition period has separated us from continental Europe, then? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 21, 2020 Share Posted November 21, 2020 2 hours ago, madwullie said: Carol Smillie is my half cousin and didn't let her dad walk her down the aisle, instead asking the guy that hosted Wheel of Fortune with her instead. Your move Kasparov Why did she ask the guy from Wheel of Fortune to walk her down instead? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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