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When will indyref2 happen?


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Indyref2  

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1 minute ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

The Pound was 20% down on USD and EUR on the 24th June 2016 compared to the day before.

Oh come on you cant expect Dawson Park Boy to remember that. 

This is someone who only four weeks ago re-acted to Kwasi's (remember him?) "fiscal event" with the following - "Where I do disagree is that I think that this is a brilliant budget at just the right time and will increase GDP."

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13 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

EU membership or at the least common market are essential post indy, its for me one the basis of legitimacy to have a second ref based on the fact Scotland and its electorate overwhelmingly support EU membership. 

I would agree a 2nd referendum is needed but I havent seen anything mentioned by SNP to say thats the plan, same for issues like currency, Nato.

Maybe I have just not seen this though? Id have thought these things would have been published by SNP.

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2 hours ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

All I’m saying is that, at the moment, it hasn’t made any difference.

That's because it hasn't been implemented, all that has been achieved is to put us into a great position of weakness. 

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1 hour ago, BigDoddyKane said:

I would agree a 2nd referendum is needed but I havent seen anything mentioned by SNP to say thats the plan, same for issues like currency, Nato.

Maybe I have just not seen this though? Id have thought these things would have been published by SNP.

In fairness, its all there now at https://www.gov.scot/newscotland/  (just published) pretty detailed, and covers currency, the EU, the economy, immigration. More papers to come.

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Imagine still advocating being part of a country where a disgraced PM is being touted to return a few weeks later. A man who cheated on his cancer ridden wife and was found to lie to parliament. 

Also a man who is on record saying cash spent in England is better than in Scotland. 

 

But I'll go eat my cereal.

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1 hour ago, Caledonian1 said:

Oh come on you cant expect Dawson Park Boy to remember that. 

This is someone who only four weeks ago re-acted to Kwasi's (remember him?) "fiscal event" with the following - "Where I do disagree is that I think that this is a brilliant budget at just the right time and will increase GDP."

Yes, that’s correct.

The strategy was correct but the implementation was poor.

In my opinion, of course.

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11 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

Imagine still advocating being part of a country where a disgraced PM is being touted to return a few weeks later. A man who cheated on his cancer ridden wife and was found to lie to parliament. 

Also a man who is on record saying cash spent in England is better than in Scotland. 

 

But I'll go eat my cereal.

But ma penshun!

But Putin will bomb us!

The numbers don't add up! We'd be in debt!

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On the eve of the Brexit vote the pound was worth about 1.31 Euro. Today it's about 1.14. We keep getting it rammed down our throat that interest rate rises, inflation and recession are affecting all countries yet the pound has lost a double digit % of its value against the main currency of the countries we opted to separate from. The pound is toxic and blaming the (relatively) strong dollar is a total smokescreen for the Tory govt and Brexiteers to hide behind.

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1 hour ago, Jedi said:

In fairness, its all there now at https://www.gov.scot/newscotland/  (just published) pretty detailed, and covers currency, the EU, the economy, immigration. More papers to come.

I havent read it but who are they saying is going to make the decision post indy, The people of Scotland post indy in a referendum, whoever wins the first election in Scotland post indy or something else?

Edited by BigDoddyKane
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19 minutes ago, BigDoddyKane said:

I havent read it but who are they saying is going to make the decision post indy, The people of Scotland post indy in a referendum, whoever wins the first election in Scotland post indy or something else?

That is a really good question, and one which they do need to clarify.

Presumably, the SNP would handle negotiations with Westminster, as they would still have a majority in Holyrood.

Do they then call an election with the aim being that the 'first' govt of an Independent Scotland (almost certainly the self same SNP) then get to implement their programme of what Indy should look like (for 5 years at least).

So, its probably fair to say that both the negotiation period, and also the first 5 year govt would be the SNP's programme based (at the moment) on Building Scotland's Future document.

After the first 5 years...? who knows that would be up to the electorate. Will they simply put the SNP back in, or is there an alternative party by that stage.

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2 minutes ago, Jedi said:

That is a really good question, and one which they do need to clarify.

Presumably, the SNP would handle negotiations with Westminster, as they would still have a majority in Holyrood.

Do they then call an election with the aim being that the 'first' govt of an Independent Scotland (almost certainly the self same SNP) then get to implement their programme of what Indy should look like (for 5 years at least).

So, its probably fair to say that both the negotiation period, and also the first 5 year govt would be the SNP's programme based (at the moment) on Building Scotland's Future document.

After the first 5 years...? who knows that would be up to the electorate. Will they simply put the SNP back in, or is there an alternative party by that stage.

my opinion is that a yes vote at Indy is just a yes to independence, the big fundamental questions for Scotland after that should be decided in a referendum within a year or 2 max after that. EU, Currency, Nato etc. That should all be decided by the people of Scotland.

I would be surprised if the SNP think they have the power to decide these things but the reason I ask is I havent seen anything where they state how this will happen.

If they are saying they will decide these questions I dont agree with that and they need to be clearer about that. Its very important at the start of an independnt Scotland that we decide those big questions not any political party

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Unfortunately (or fortunately) whichever way you look at it, the pattern of politics in Scotland since the 1950s has been to effectively have a one party state.

From the late 50s through to 2011 that was Labour-pretty much for 50 years. During that period the SNP were small electorally in terms of vote share and seats.(at Westminster traditionally returning 3 or 4 seats)

Now that has been completely reversed since really 2011 and the first SNP landslide in a Scottish election. With their having been in power now for 15 years, it difficult to see that changing for a long, long time. Reason being that there is an in-built 40-45% of the vote which is guaranteed to go to the SNP because of Independence..that share automatically gains by far the most seats. You could argue that maybe the opposition is just rubbish (and in Scotland, they haven't been good since 2011), but because of the pattern of Scottish politics, when you look at Labour dominance for 50 years, and now the SNP, 15 years already and many more to go (the next Scottish election being a formality for them)...Labour will never really recover in Scotland because they were part of the No campaign in 2014.

Its actually ironic that Westminster does change governments in less time periods than Scotland. Yes, the Tories have clearly won the most elections but if you look at

1979-97 Tories for 18 years

97-2010 Labour for 13

2010-22 Tories for 12 (and now likely to change again)

The 'turnover' is quite different to Scottish politics.

So, with that (continuing 40-45% of voters) which I can't see changing post-Indy for a very long stretch, it will most certainly be the SNP who dominate an Independent Scotland for a good while.

Edited by Jedi
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2 hours ago, Stellaboz said:

Imagine still advocating being part of a country where a disgraced PM is being touted to return a few weeks later. A man who cheated on his cancer ridden wife and was found to lie to parliament. 

Also a man who is on record saying cash spent in England is better than in Scotland. 

 

But I'll go eat my cereal.

I agree the tories are a shambles/disgrace etc. However, there is a very high chance they will get voted out in the next GE. A no vote is not a vote for tory, much the same as a yes vote is not a vote for SNP. 

2 hours ago, TheScarf said:

But ma penshun!

But Putin will bomb us!

The numbers don't add up! We'd be in debt!

This is just embarrassing. People are trying (and actually been quite good and interesting) to have a proper conversation and this is the level of chat you are at. Cant even offer up anything except blind optimism. I will reiterate that i would love to vote yes but the financial side needs to be a lot clearer. 

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So the complete dominance electorally of Scottish politics by a single party firstly from the late 50s-2011, and then from 2011 till now isn't effectively a 'one party state'?

Of course it doesn't fit the 'definition' by way of there being other parties which actually stand, but in these time periods, as now, there was/is no prospect of any other than one party holdng power. Independence doesn't automatically change that. Where are the 40-45% of SNP going to go post-Indy?...the Greens? Labour?

Edited by Jedi
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11 minutes ago, Jedi said:

So the complete dominance electorally of Scottish politics by a single party firstly from the late 50s-2011, and then from 2011 till now isn't effectively a 'one party state'?

Of course it doesn't fit the 'definition' by way of there being other parties which actually stand, but in these time periods, as now, there was/is no prospect of any other than one party holdng power. Independence doesn't automatically change that. Where are the 40-45% of SNP going to go post-Indy?...the Greens? Labour?

It doesn’t fit the definition by way of Scotland not being a “state” either, so swing and a miss on both counts there.

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5 minutes ago, Jedi said:

So the complete dominance electorally of Scottish politics by a single party firstly from the late 50s-2011, and then from 2011 till now isn't effectively a 'one party state'?

Of course it doesn't fit the 'definition' by way of there being other parties which actually stand, but in these time periods, as now, there was/is no prospect of any other than one party holdng power. Independence doesn't automatically change that.

Maybe if Labour weren’t such a bunch of lick spittle, yoon, gammon chasing arseholes, the “one party state” may change? Anyway, they are about to win every single seat in our largest city! 

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