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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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Loon, you don't do yourselves any favours
I've got a lot on today cutting grass and stuff, no time to put up a more thoughtful response JLD. The ten years of sterling use does sound like the currency issue going into the long grass though.
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From the point of view of the money in your pocket then other than the potential for cost of living changes, day 1 indie is business as usual.
 
From the point of view of financial services? Day 1 indie without a currency and central bank means regulation under rUK rules. It means rUK interest rates. It means protection for savers being underwritten under whatever terms rUK want to implement.
 
It's one small step for your average man but a giant leap for the financial services sector. More importantly it does nothing to strengthen the objective case for independence. Remove the emotional argument - the SNP needs to convert no voters to yes voters and moving from pipe dreams of fiscal union to simply using Sterling without the associated financial levers does nothing to strengthen the objective case for independence.
 
They would have to consider a choice between a country wishing to remain in the EU with all the free movement of goods and most importantly services or a country whos just leaving with none of these. Its not as black and white as you make out. The financial service industry in both Edinburgh and London are currently shitting themselves based on a Westminster decision that Scottish people that do not agree with.
Edinburgh in Europe...London outside Europe. That is the choice.
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Lender of last resort.  Applying liquidity where required.  Basically everything a central bank shpuld do minus the interest rate control in the short to medium term.
The deficit reduction part looks neoliberal to the core. However the two elements of it seem to be transitioning towards a more productive, export led economy.  Get more women into the workforce for longer and positive migration are fairly progressive policies. Worth remembering that the paper also agrees with the idea of a national investment bank - already being setup by the current government and a policy of supporting actively industries where Scotland may possess a sustainable advantage.
Secondly there is undoubtedly UK discretionary spending that Scotland could cut almost immediately - defence and infrastructure - that could ultimately limit the real effect on service provision. The paper does take the conventional approach that the markets must be persuaded of a government's prudence.  Which is not a view that will find a hell of a lot of sympathy in the more radical wings of the indy movement.
Having said that its not official SNP policy either, as much as denying the findings of a government commision you set up can give rise to hostages of fortune. Nevertheless there are alternatives, such as the Commonweal how to start a new country publication, that is more in line with the wider movements thoughts. Sturgeon calls for a debate. I think there is a decent clutch of potential policies in the paper even if i wouldn't apply the whole thing lock stock and barrel.
Your of the opinion that the SNP  have no intention of ever calling another indy ref? 
 
The never like to mention our population share of defence, HS2, Crossrail, Heathrow, Millenium Dome, Olympics, Westminster Refurb and so on. Holyrood is still waiting on the 90% coming up the road for the Forth Bridge and the Commonwealth Games. Shoul be here anytime now.
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1 hour ago, BallochSonsFan said:

Why would any individual area within a country be able to control currency liquidity?

Probably because, as much as it irritates the cringers, Scotland is a country, not an area. 

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1 hour ago, AUFC90 said:

They would have to consider a choice between a country wishing to remain in the EU with all the free movement of goods and most importantly services or a country whos just leaving with none of these. Its not as black and white as you make out. The financial service industry in both Edinburgh and London are currently shitting themselves based on a Westminster decision that Scottish people that do not agree with.
Edinburgh in Europe...London outside Europe. That is the choice.

Only a choice if iScotland was a Euro member from day 1.

The issue would come down to which lender of last resort was underwriting protection for savers and which central bank was controlling currency liquidity. Financial institutions would look at who was actually in control of the currency.

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57 minutes ago, Antlion said:

Probably because, as much as it irritates the cringers, Scotland is a country, not an area. 

So you'll have a Scottish passport then?

It isn't a country. It's a constituent member of a country. It only becomes a country if it gains independence and is then internationally recognised as an independent sovereign nation.

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So you'll have a Scottish passport then?
It isn't a country. It's a constituent member of a country. It only becomes a country if it gains independence and is then internationally recognised as an independent sovereign nation.
It's not an independent sovereign nation but it is a country. Anyone who disputes this loses the right to be taken seriously.
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Only a choice if iScotland was a Euro member from day 1.

The issue would come down to which lender of last resort was underwriting protection for savers and which central bank was controlling currency liquidity. Financial institutions would look at who was actually in control of the currency.

We shall see. A deflated currency for a high export country like Scotland is actually a good thing. For the UK ? Not so much.

 

Do you honestly think that the BOE and and finacial institutions are not going to give protection and will actually intentionally give the markets the absolute shitters? Did the crash not teach you anything? The UK even bailed Ireland out in no time to avoid the jitters. The same Ireland which beats the UK in just about every economic indicator. Its all interlinked and currency will sort itself out. We'll piggy back the pound ,just like every other country that has went independent, until we float or own. To be honest all the growth commission will succeed in doing is giving all the nawbags an excuse to mention pound sterling every day for the next 5 years.

 

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Scotland  must be a country because Allistair Darling used that word in his attack on Salmond for "being able to tell us the flag of the country/the capital of the country, but you can't tell us the currency of the country"- all in a word I know , and it is so misused all over the media and in Westminster when the word is used to describe health etc  in England which is itself on your argument therefore  a constituent part . I think we should talk about the State as a better term.

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On ‎25‎/‎05‎/‎2018 at 19:00, Detournement said:

I've suspected for a while that the SNP are more interested in establishing an apparatus than campaigning for independence but i'm genuinely surprised that they actually knifed the independence movement in the back.

 Years of piggybacking on the pound after the dissolution of the Union and a commitment to a decade of austerity are policies designed to fail. In 2014 the independence campaign was positive and seemed ahead of the curve. Today's document is regressive and reminiscent of the pre crash SNP when Salmond was brown nosing Goodwin and Trump and Ireland's tax avoidance schemes were aspirational. 50+1 will never be achieved by beige managerialism.

 

 

This relates in no way to the actual document.

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On ‎25‎/‎05‎/‎2018 at 21:08, Detournement said:

The controversial aspect isn't using Sterling. It isn't even matching rUK corporate tax rates. It's committing to cutting the deficit to below 3% in 5-10 years and limiting debt to 50% of GDP and limiting real spending increases to levels less than %growth.

Austerity is what has held back growth in this country and prolonged the deficit - you can cut the deficit by investing in the country and making it prosperous.  Years of neoliberalism have made people think that cutting deficits requires cuts.  It does not.

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7 hours ago, BallochSonsFan said:

So you'll have a Scottish passport then?

It isn't a country. It's a constituent member of a country. It only becomes a country if it gains independence and is then internationally recognised as an independent sovereign nation.

You need to Google the meaning of the word country.  You're confusing it with unitary state.

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