When will indyref2 happen?

[Peppino Impastato]

18 hours ago, Alan Stubbs said:

I'm not sure if it's stupidity, or more just a case of being a collection of absolute sadcunts who are incapable of getting on with their lives (nothing to lose eh), but the folk constantly screaming for another vote haven't shown themselves to be the most politically astute so far.  Seems like a lot of the same people who were absolutely certain that it would be a Yes vote last time and definitely the same people whose demands for a referendum have already backfired once since Brexit. 

As someone who still wants Independence, even if it doesn't happen in the next five minutes, I disagree that there is 'nothing to lose'. As far as I can tell, there are two ways that overall defeat can happen - the disappearance of a pro-Independence political force in Holyrood or a second referendum failing. People like yourself seem determined to make both happen. 

I'd throw in a third threat and that is a rolling back of devolution itself. If the SNP show themselves to be more representative of their own hardcore base than of Scotland as a whole, this one will become particularly serious. I'm sure most of them are well meaning but for my money, the window sticker simpletons are as big a threat to Independence as any staunch w****r out there. They've arguably already fucked up the opportunity for us to really capitalise on Brexit and if the SNP listens to them too much in the next few years, they might end up killing the whole thing off.   

You're simply wrong.  And incredibly naive.  It's now or never.

[Peppino Impastato]

22 hours ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

There's rumours circulating that Tories are preparing for an autumn election as the Maybot has realised that she cannot hold her squabbling party of far-right crazies, zealots and xenophobes together, and will be swept away by Brexit's floodtide of shite.

It'd be crazy to call another indyref at the moment because:

1. referendum fatigue

2. possible new General Election (SNP should have learned something from the last General Election)

3. people wanting to "wait and see" what Brexit actually means in practice

4. the supposed game changer, the Westminster seven-year power grab, is failing to raise the hackles of all but the already converted

People in Scotland (in general) tend to be conservative with a small c. There's been more life-changing referenda in the last four years than there had been in the period 1973-2014. People have had enough of constant change, constant turmoil, constant upheaval, constant political stalemate, constant uncertainty, being used as expendable pawns in an ideological battle.

The trouble is, there's no turning the clock back to pre-June 2016. Regardless of your individual views on Brexit, the UK is now an international laughing stock and has suffered reputational damage on the international stage that will take a long time to repair. This constant political chaos feels very much like the new normal.

In these circumstances, it's better to wait. I don't understand the "but we might lose a majority in 2021" line. If the pro-independence bloc loses an overall majority then, then a Yes vote in an indy ref 2 was never going to happen anyway.

Brexit will be a shocker. People will lose jobs, the cost of living will jump, travel will become more expensive and difficult. I'm afraid it's going to take quite a few years of pain in a post-Brexit unitary UK state before the majority opinion that would trigger a successful indyref 2 result will be reached. It would be sheer suicide to call it prematurely and run the risk of a second defeat and the issue being removed from the table in our lifetimes.

Patience is a very under-rated virtue in today's politics. This is the most hideous and inhuman government Britain's had for over a century. It still leads in the polls down south. The ineptitude of the Labour leadership coupled with a visceral gut reaction from the electorate outwith Scotland to a possible Labour-SNP pact, plus all the factors above, means that (*for me, anyway) now is the wrong time to call another independence referendum.

The No vote- an alliance of the easily frightened elderly, risk-averse  gammon, I'm all right jacks, contrarian trolls and the Loyalist vote  is going to be very difficult to prise apart, in a relentlessly hostile media landscape.

Regard the impatient and those who think this'll all be easy with a good deal of scepticism. Wait. It's easy to look back to 2014 and be bitter but it's not going to make the horrible dilemmas of 2018 any easier to solve. Jumping the gun certainly won't solve the issue in the Yes movement's favour.

 

That's fundamentally pish as a referendum is a binary choice on one issue.

 

I repeat, if you a support independence and don't want a vote now you're an idiot.  There will never be another chance.  And therefore there's nothing to lose.

[Antlion]

I wonder if the Tories’ and the media sudden carping about indyref2 is in preparation for Maybot’s mooted GE (i.e. an early appeal to Britnattery who might be pushed into enabling Toryism by the thought of being asked about Scotland’s future).

If the Maybot pulls the trigger on a third GE in as many years, I hope the SNP will be standing by to tell it “now is not the time”, and that people are sick of being asked who they want to rule them.

[Peppino Impastato]

11 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Well the harm is that it could irreparably damage the indy cause forever if we get beat a second time.
We have everything to lose and it looks very likely that we will definitely lose as the yes campaign hasnt learned the lessons from 2014. Its still populated by absolute whompercunts like Cat Boyd and ‘radical independence’ who put potential centrist yes voters off with their actions, truth be told if i thought an independent Scotland would look like the RI guys vision for it i’d probably vote against. What we need is for the loonies to take a back seat in this campaign if it’s to happen.
We would need significant defections from the Labour party for this to be a win and would need to ensure that Europeans living in Scotland got the vote. That’s the only way we win.
Given the financial implications and cost of another indy ref its anything but a free hit.

Mate the problem here is twofold.  One, you're an arsehole.  Two, you're a shitebag. Shut up and strap on a pair.  We have the mandate it's happening now.

[Peppino Impastato]

11 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Well the harm is that it could irreparably damage the indy cause forever if we get beat a second time.
We have everything to lose and it looks very likely that we will definitely lose as the yes campaign hasnt learned the lessons from 2014. Its still populated by absolute whompercunts like Cat Boyd and ‘radical independence’ who put potential centrist yes voters off with their actions, truth be told if i thought an independent Scotland would look like the RI guys vision for it i’d probably vote against. What we need is for the loonies to take a back seat in this campaign if it’s to happen.
We would need significant defections from the Labour party for this to be a win and would need to ensure that Europeans living in Scotland got the vote. That’s the only way we win.
Given the financial implications and cost of another indy ref its anything but a free hit.

Is that right eh?  Need to ensure the Europeans get the vote or we can't win?  Your words.  Are you aware for that to happen we have to have it before Brexit?  You fkn clown.  Some of us actually have a clue what we're talking about and aren't just face painted nutjobs.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Mate the problem here is twofold.  One, you're an arsehole.  Two, you're a shitebag. Shut up and strap on a pair.  We have the mandate it's happening now.

No wonder you are such a laughing stock on here.

 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Is that right eh?  Need to ensure the Europeans get the vote or we can't win?  Your words.  Are you aware for that to happen we have to have it before Brexit?  You fkn clown.  Some of us actually have a clue what we're talking about and aren't just face painted nutjobs.

You really aren’t the brightest eh? EU citizens will be allowed to remain so could get a vote post brexit. For someone flinging around so much abuse I really hope you don’t go out on the campaign trail as you’d put people off. You come on here and abuse people because they disagree with you on the timing of a referendum because it isnt a ‘free shot’ its a long game, it isnt going to happen any time soon, we won’t win in March. I know exactly what im talking about when it comes to this particular subject matter.

[Peppino Impastato]

1 minute ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

You really aren’t the brightest eh? EU citizens will be allowed to remain so could get a vote post brexit. For someone flinging around so much abuse I really hope you don’t go out on the campaign trail as you’d put people off. You come on here and abuse people because they disagree with you on the timing of a referendum because it isnt a ‘free shot’ its a long game, it isnt going to happen any time soon, we won’t win in March. I know exactly what im talking about when it comes to this particular subject matter.

Google it champ

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Google it champ

Ffs you’re like our sides version of glen minter.
We wont win, we need to play the long game.

[Peppino Impastato]

10 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Ffs you’re like our sides version of glen minter.
We wont win, we need to play the long game.

The long game is certain defeat.  You're just being incredibly naive.

[John Lambies Doos]

Ffs you’re like our sides version of glen minter.
We wont win, we need to play the long game.

Not sure I agree with this long game mate. When we leave the EU it will be so hard to convince voters to leave another union. I'm sure the EU would pave the way if we vote now, unfortunately our perceived dependence will grow and grow the longer we leave it.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Not sure I agree with this long game mate. When we leave the EU it will be so hard to convince voters to leave another union. I'm sure the EU would pave the way if we vote now, unfortunately our perceived dependence will grow and grow the longer we leave it.

We’ve got to contend with referendum fatigue and lack of progress in the polls. Theres no real appetite for it outside the yes support which has stagnated. I agree with the principle of starting to frame the argument, making the case for it but having a referendum in March when the electorate will still be getting to grips with whatever Brexit deal we have is ill-advised. Wait til 2020, give us a chance to frame a better deal in terms of brexit post indy, coupled with sorting out the economic argument and we might actually have a chance. If we use the clusterfuck they negotiate ie CAP,CFP,single market access, irish sea border etc as part of our case for indy then it could be very positive, but thats why its got to be a longer term game. It’ll be worth it if we pick our moment and dont jump the gun too early, because if we do then it really will be fucked for decades.

[git-intae-thum]

You are all assuming Maybots consent for a referendum.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

You are all assuming Maybots consent for a referendum.

Well thats the other thing, i dont think she’ll give it, ultimately that might be enough to swing it for some however.

[git-intae-thum]

17 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Well thats the other thing, i dont think she’ll give it, ultimately that might be enough to swing it for some however.

Exactly. Which is why its sensible to push for it. Maybe not too hard.....but just enough

[HTG]

Pep is being somewhat impetuous here. 

May knocking back a formal Indyref request would be an outstanding result for the independence movement. 

[welshbairn]

5 hours ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

Can you expand on that?

 

I'd have thought it was pretty obvious. Making a populist appeal to the passionate right or left instead of the rational centre has worked in Italy. A clown and a Fascist have shaken hands and taken over. 

[Antlion]

30 minutes ago, HTG said:

Pep is being somewhat impetuous here. 

May knocking back a formal Indyref request would be an outstanding result for the independence movement. 

Hasn’t it already happened? I thought the SG sent on the request and received no acknowledgment other than the Maybot’s “not now, subservient region” given not even to Scotland’s government, but the media...

[git-intae-thum]

22 minutes ago, Antlion said:

Hasn’t it already happened? I thought the SG sent on the request and received no acknowledgment other than the Maybot’s “not now, subservient region” given not even to Scotland’s government, but the media...

More times it happens the better

[DrewDon]

9 hours ago, Ivo den Bieman said:

Appeals to form a Centrist Dad party in England are seemingly stillborn. Some Bond villain is waiting in the wings with a £50million warchest, but he's yet to find his Graeme Souness.

The fact that Nick Clegg, Tony Blair and various wet Tory nonentities have been suggested as potential members of the leadership cadre tells you all you need to know.

Politics is too divided up here along generational and unionist / nationalist lines for the "radical centre" to get very far. Macron's government is already reminding us that the "radical centre" is actually the radical right, just with nicer teeth, better manners and notionally kinder to minority communities.

 

It should probably be an issue for concern amongst Sensible Centrists™ in certain quarters that their primary antidote to the rise of reactionary populism appears to amount to the grand total of reheating bland, technocratic managerialism.