When will indyref2 happen?

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

13 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

 

Nonsense, all to do with Salmond being fat with an old wife.

 

And Nicola Sturgeon not having kids.

[renton]

https://www.sustainablegrowthcommission.scot/report

 

[NotThePars]

Devastating for the SNP IMO.

[johnnydun]

11 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Devastating for the SNP IMO.

That was a quick read of 300 pages.

[Baxter Parp]

1 hour ago, renton said:

https://www.sustainablegrowthcommission.scot/report

 

Some hope.

[BallochSonsFan]

So in near enough 3 years the SNP's answer to the currency conundrum is still "it's oor poond and wull use it if wae want tae".

 

So

No central bank/lender of last resort.

Allowing what would be a foreign government to set the interest rates by which Scottish finances would be affected.

 

Thats what they've been working on since the last referendum? Really?

[Baxter Parp]

3 minutes ago, BallochSonsFan said:

So in near enough 3 years the SNP's answer to the currency conundrum is still "it's oor poond and wull use it if wae want tae".

 

So

No central bank/lender of last resort.

Allowing what would be a foreign government to set the interest rates by which Scottish finances would be affected.

 

Thats what they've been working on since the last referendum? Really?

Utterly wrong and clearly without reading a word of the report.  Great start.

[williemillersmoustache]

10 years for transition to our own currency sounds like forever and I reckon it can and should be done much faster.  However, great to see migration put at the heart of this and encouraged to see that the assumed date for indy is from 2021/22.

*insert it's happening gif here*

Nice juxtaposition with what's happening in the UK today too, Lowest growth for 5 years. 

And how are they planning on fixing that, you may ask? Selling innovative jam to NZ still appears to be the 'only' plan.

 

Time to get the band back together. 

 

 

Edited May 25, 2018 by williemillersmoustache

[Baxter Parp]

9 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said:

10 years for transition to our own currency sounds like forever and I reckon it can and should be done much faster. 

"The Commission recommends that the currency of an independent Scotland should remain the pound sterling for a possibly extended transition period" Not sure it says ten years or any fixed period.

[williemillersmoustache]

"The Commission recommends that the currency of an independent Scotland should remain the pound sterling for a possibly extended transition period" Not sure it says ten years or any fixed period.

I've only read excerpts but "at least 10 years" has been banded about in the rags and auntie Beeb. Should have known it was bollocks, amateur stuff from me.

[BallochSonsFan]

Utterly wrong and clearly without reading a word of the report.  Great start.

So when the report itself predicts that no bank will have it's headquarter in Scotland if iScotland uses the GB Pound, that's presumably made up?

Using another country's currency without recourse to a central bank/lender of last resort or having control over interest rates is one step up from bartering eggs.

Which may well explain some of those Bank of Scotland adverts from the past few months but is hardly a credible plan for an independent economy.

[Baxter Parp]

1 minute ago, BallochSonsFan said:

So when the report itself predicts that no bank will have it's headquarter in Scotland if iScotland uses the GB Pound, that's presumably made up?

Using another country's currency without recourse to a central bank/lender of last resort or having control over interest rates is one step up from bartering eggs.

Which may well explain some of those Bank of Scotland adverts from the past few months but is hardly a credible plan for an independent economy.

 

 

Gammon Rap.  Utterly bewildering that anybody could take this gibberish from what is a calm and considered document.

[renton]

1 minute ago, BallochSonsFan said:

 

So when the report itself predicts that no bank will have it's headquarter in Scotland if iScotland uses the GB Pound, that's presumably made up?

Using another country's currency without recourse to a central bank/lender of last resort or having control over interest rates is one step up from bartering eggs.

Which may well explain some of those Bank of Scotland adverts from the past few months but is hardly a credible plan for an independent economy.

 

There is no way to setup a central bank/new currency prior to independence and it's not like we can do it in a matter of days afterwards. A transition period feels necessary to me, and without the formal monetary union we're going to have to lump it on being fiscally tied to the rUK in the short term, functionally it'd be no different from how Scotland's fiscal policy operates today. That might not sound overly brimming with optimism and hope but only by taking the first step of independence can we move to a better solution down the line.

[BallochSonsFan]

There is no way to setup a central bank/new currency prior to independence and it's not like we can do it in a matter of days afterwards. A transition period feels necessary to me, and without the formal monetary union we're going to have to lump it on being fiscally tied to the rUK in the short term, functionally it'd be no different from how Scotland's fiscal policy operates today. That might not sound overly brimming with optimism and hope but only by taking the first step of independence can we move to a better solution down the line.

Functionally it's massively different.

It would effectively kill the Scottish financial services sector dead overnight. Scotland would become a market for financial services rather than having an industry based here.

Financial service institutions leaving Scotland would mean zero tax income from them. That puts a significant hole in the post independence budget.

[renton]

1 minute ago, BallochSonsFan said:

 

Functionally it's massively different.

It would effectively kill the Scottish financial services sector dead overnight. Scotland would become a market for financial services rather than having an industry based here.

Financial service institutions leaving Scotland would mean zero tax income from them. That puts a significant hole in the post independence budget.

 

Not from a currency point of view. In terms of setting up a central bank, that's a different question and the paper does make the point of setting that up a priority first, which could stockpile reserves of Sterling, also something that conceivably would happen during a transition from Union to Independence.

[renton]

The relevant subsection on Currency, Monetary and central bank schemes is here:

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5afc0bbbf79392ced8b73dbf/t/5b06e8a56d2a73f9e0305ad9/1527179438303/SGC+Part+C+Currency+Monetary+Framework.pdf

[BallochSonsFan]

Not from a currency point of view. In terms of setting up a central bank, that's a different question and the paper does make the point of setting that up a priority first, which could stockpile reserves of Sterling, also something that conceivably would happen during a transition from Union to Independence.

 

From the point of view of the money in your pocket then other than the potential for cost of living changes, day 1 indie is business as usual.

 

From the point of view of financial services? Day 1 indie without a currency and central bank means regulation under rUK rules. It means rUK interest rates. It means protection for savers being underwritten under whatever terms rUK want to implement.

 

It's one small step for your average man but a giant leap for the financial services sector. More importantly it does nothing to strengthen the objective case for independence. Remove the emotional argument - the SNP needs to convert no voters to yes voters and moving from pipe dreams of fiscal union to simply using Sterling without the associated financial levers does nothing to strengthen the objective case for independence.

 

[renton]

1 minute ago, BallochSonsFan said:

 

From the point of view of the money in your pocket then other than the potential for cost of living changes, day 1 indie is business as usual.

From the point of view of financial services? Day 1 indie without a currency and central bank means regulation under rUK rules. It means rUK interest rates. It means protection for savers being underwritten under whatever terms rUK want to implement.

It's one small step for your average man but a giant leap for the financial services sector.

 

As I understand the recommendations, the idea is to maintain Sterling, forgoing the control of the interest rates that our own currency would provide. Day one of Indy would however start with us having a central bank, recruited and set up during the transition period with a subsidiary Scottish Finance Authority. That bank would operate as a lender of last resort and provide liquidity to those sections of the banks operating in Scotland. Ringfencing on the UK model would be ported across alongside other regulatory frameworks. 

Given that most HQ functions for nominally Scottish banks are already in London or outside of Scotland, being slaved to rUK interest rates shouldn't make a huge difference. 

Seriously, read the pdf in the link above and explain to me what I'm missing...

[BallochSonsFan]

All you've quoted is the recognition that iScotland would need it's own central bank. There's nothing there that provides a properly thought out and costed process for creating one.

If the currency was still Sterling then that central bank can act as lender of last resort but it can't issue currency and it has no control over interest rates.it can't stop the Bank of England taking action such as quantative easing (for example) that would have a direct effect on the Scottish economy.

It's a worse plan than iScotland joining the Euro from day 1.

It delivers none of the economic levers needed for a post independence economy.

[renton]

6 minutes ago, BallochSonsFan said:

All you've quoted is the recognition that iScotland would need it's own central bank. There's nothing there that provides a properly thought out and costed process for creating one.

If the currency was still Sterling then that central bank can act as lender of last resort but it can't issue currency and it has no control over interest rates.it can't stop the Bank of England taking action such as quantative easing (for example) that would have a direct effect on the Scottish economy.

It's a worse plan than iScotland joining the Euro from day 1.

It delivers none of the economic levers needed for a post independence economy.

Not sure the document was written with that kind of technical minutae in mind. It's a strategy paper after all.  It recommends having a central bank ready to roll out on day 1, it's up to the government to apply that principle and work out the details accordingly.  Having no control over interest rates is not ideal but it's not a deal breaker. Not being independent would leave us in the same condition anyway. 

Independence is a process, not an event. We won't be riding off to full communism, or Randian anarchy on day 1. The economic levers needed will come to Scotland but would require time.