When will indyref2 happen?

[BawWatchin]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I'm hoping the SNP have a secret plan to do just that, or at least prove transparently why the GERS figures are incorrect. Otherwise NO will pish all over any imminent referendum.

GERS isn't incorrect. There isn't some big mistake in the figures. It's peoples inability to fully grasp GERS that's the problem. GERS gives the average dimwit the impression that Scotlands economy is in a bad way and would suffer with independence. But those that take the time to break it all down come to realize that the most negative effect on the Scottish economy is the economic shithousery from the UK Government over reserved matters.

[BawWatchin]

1 hour ago, Tractor said:

The Prime Minister is in favour of scrapping the Barnett formula, if we remain in the UK and continue to run up heavy deficits Barnett will be scrapped.   TBH the goal of the SNP should be to extract maximum financial concessions for Scotland through Smith, or bung money (DUP).    Provided income levels increase the SG should be looking to run as heavy a deficit as it's allowed under the current constitutional arrangement.     

Scotland could cut "Greek style" and run the biggest surplus in the world, but it wouldn't make Scotland more or less viable as an independent country, therefore the 12.6 bill argument is complete bollocks.    

Our healthy GDP per capita, Balance of trade, natural resources, and the fact that we're lagging behind similar small European countries makes Independence attractive.     

We have our own parliament - Why would you want to our source work to Westminster, when it would be hugely beneficial to run fiscal policies that suit the Scottish economy?  

The SNP have never ran a deficit. The maximum borrowing allowance for Holyrood is approximately 500 million a year. A power the SNP have never utilized as it would impact the budget for the next financial year. 100% of the yearly deficit attributed to Scotland comes from UK Government borrowing and spending over reserved matters. It has absolutely nothing to do with the Scottish Government at Holyrood.

[BawWatchin]

1 minute ago, Tractor said:

Cool. Story. 

It's a fact. Go read up the Scottish Government spending figures yourself. All devolved spending is within budget. The deficit is UK Government borrowing and spending on matters that are reserved at Westminster.

[BawWatchin]

Just now, Tractor said:

I'm fully aware that UK Gov interest takes up about 30-40% of our 'deficit'.    

I personally believe in the relative accuracy of GERS.    

The We raise 70 billion they give back 35 billion and waste 35 billion on our behalf and the very worst of the Yes movement.    Folk like these need shutting down because they harm the movement.  

UK Government spending decisions make up 100% of the deficit attributed to Scotland each and every year. The Scottish Government underspends the Holyrood budget each and every year.

2018 Underspend

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17719872.snp-government-underspent-its-budget-by-450m-last-year/

2017 Underspend

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16306576.snp-government-budget-underspend-almost-500m/

and on it goes.

[BawWatchin]

2 minutes ago, Tractor said:

Again you're offering nothing.   We all know this.   

Can you break down the reserved spending on Scotland please?    Debt interest takes up a large chunk of this, what's the rest spent on?  

You already know the answer to that and i've already stated it multiple times.

[BawWatchin]

Just now, Tractor said:

Not during our 3 post exchange.   

To answer the question directly can you inform the forum directly:  What the reserved spending spent on?  

You responded to my initial post with this. Which I can only assume was sarcasm.

30 minutes ago, Tractor said:

Cool. Story. 

You then go on to say this.

13 minutes ago, Tractor said:

Again you're offering nothing.   We all know this.   

Well if you already knew this as you claim, then what was the purpose of the initial response?

As for  a break down of how the UK Government spends Scottish Tax revenue on reserved matters. This is outlined in the GERS report (as you know). However, the figures are far from definitive and rely heavily on a system of methodology where a series of assumptions are made based on UK wide spending as a whole. Such a system wouldn't be necessary if the UK Government provided a direct breakdown of their spending of Scottish tax revenues, but they choose not to.

[Baxter Parp]

GERS to me seems to be reasonably accurate.  

 

Based on what?

[BawWatchin]

13 hours ago, Tractor said:

This is what I'm interested in.   

GERS suggests that circa £20 billion of reserved funds are spend on tax credits, transport, social protection, government grants.   

There's the approx 4 billion on defence spending.  

There's the money of international aid, the BBC and HMRC, DWP.   

GERS to me seems to be reasonably accurate.     I'd be delighted (as a fan of Scottish independence)   to be proved wrong  but thus far all you've shown is the SP is only allowed to run a micro-deficit.    Something every man and their dug knows.  

 

"Every man and their dug" doesn't know this. In fact, the vast majority of unionists are convinced that the deficit is ran up by an incompetent government at Holyrood. They don't understand the difference between devolved spending and UK Government spending on reserved matters.

I'm well aware of what GERS suggests. It suggests that all economic matters led by the UK Government ultimately lead to a deficit. It's a non debatable fact.

GERS is an argument against Scotland remaining in the UK, not for it.

[BawWatchin]

2 hours ago, Tractor said:

When GERS is suggesting proportionally more money is spent in Scotland you view this as a argument for leaving the UK.   

When GERS was showing Scotland was running a (comparative) fiscal surplus - in your opinion - was this an argument to stay in the UK?   

It's nowhere near as simplistic as you're making out. You assume all of it is spent in Scotland, it isn't. The UK Government spends Scottish tax revenue on things that it considers a benefit to the Scottish economy, even if it's spent in other parts of the UK and Scotland has no real control over it. Scotland has no control over UK National debt levels, so we have no control over how much debt interest our country is contributing towards it. We have no control over defence spending policies or how much the UK Government chooses to allocate on border controls. 

The UK Government could decide to spend £100 billion painting Westminster gold. Scotland still has to contribute it's share, even if every single citizen in this country opposes the policy.

The higher proportion of spending in Scotland per head statement is smoke and mirrors. It takes people for idiots.

[git-intae-thum]

1 hour ago, BawWatchin said:

It's nowhere near as simplistic as you're making out. You assume all of it is spent in Scotland, it isn't. The UK Government spends Scottish tax revenue on things that it considers a benefit to the Scottish economy, even if it's spent in other parts of the UK and Scotland has no real control over it. Scotland has no control over UK National debt levels, so we have no control over how much debt interest our country is contributing towards it. We have no control over defence spending policies or how much the UK Government chooses to allocate on border controls. 

The UK Government could decide to spend £100 billion painting Westminster gold. Scotland still has to contribute it's share, even if every single citizen in this country opposes the policy.

The higher proportion of spending in Scotland per head statement is smoke and mirrors. It takes people for idiots.

We helped to pay for the paint for London, so the good folk at ONS make sure Scotland  receives its barnett consequential back of the cost of the gold paint.

GERs clearly provides for this

Very fair eh.

Eh....no..

4 hours ago, Tractor said:

When GERS is suggesting proportionally more money is spent in Scotland you view this as a argument for leaving the UK.   

When GERS was showing Scotland was running a (comparative) fiscal surplus - in your opinion - was this an argument to stay in the UK?   

Bawwatchin is completely correct to highlight that it is not really as simple as some would have us believe. To think that GERs provides any kind of accurate portrayal of the economy of Scotland is really quite naive.

Take the above example of painting Westminster gold.

GERs gives us back  consequential cost of share of paint.

Scotland does not receive it's share allocated back of the revenue generated by the painters, the paint and paint brush manufacturers, the service industries that provide for these folk and the associated financial industries that service their money. That's just for starters.

Scotland bears its proportion of the cost.....but tax revenue created from this cost goes through the books as solely generated in London and the South East.

Now imagine this happening right across the board on all central government spend.

It's one of the main reasons for the daft regional imbalance shown in the GERs figures.

This wouldn't really matter if we only used GERs figures to provide an insight into the Scottish economy in union.

But of course they are not. They are used by dummies as a stick to beat the Scottish economy.

 

 

[BawWatchin]

45 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

The point being made is you can't regurgitate all of that in the time afforded to an SNP politician on a typical news interview slot, or an activist in a doorstep canvassing interaction.

If you're going to that effort to clarify your point, with a view to telling undecided voters that they should vote yes, you already lost.

Attacking GERS is the wrong approach, bypassing it is the correct approach.

How exactly can it be "bypassed"?
GERS will never be bypassed in any indyref debate, because unionists will forever drag it up and shout "deficit" at every opportunity.

The only way around GERS is through education and if that means a 5 minute explanation over a daft wee soundbite, then so be it. It has to be done.

[Antlion]

6 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

How exactly can it be "bypassed"?
GERS will never be bypassed in any indyref debate, because unionists will forever drag it up and shout "deficit" at every opportunity.

The only way around GERS is through education and if that means a 5 minute explanation over a daft wee soundbite, then so be it. It has to be done.

Something the Yes campaign has never been good at is attacking. Unionists need to be confronted over GERS figures seemingly indicating that Scotland is a poor, dependent place within the UK, and questioned as to why they think this is a good thing.

[git-intae-thum]

Rather than bypassing or having to make continual explanations..........what really needs to happen is the leadership having the bottle to admit these statistics are pure hoccum and have them dropped.

They are unnecessary (there are no GERe figures produced!!).

They are a distraction from the economic indicators that we can attain with some degree of certainty and that therefore really matter (GDP, BofP etc) 

They provide ammunition for the devious and unscrupulous among the British nationaists such as that horrible dog food salesman fellow and his cohorts.

All this then leads to confusion and bewilderment for the harder of thought amongst the populous.

As Richard Murphy states they are "crap" statistics.

They should be binned pronto.

[Lex]

For the few of those who do actually believe there will be a referendum in 2020, get your mortgage on this:



5/1 eh, what profit there will be if you’re right.

Of course the reason there’s such long odds is because there almost certainly won’t be one next year.

But, if you think I and they are wrong, get your money where your mouth is.

Post screen shots of your betting slips on this thread to show your certainty.

[welshbairn]

[BawWatchin]

2 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

Just stop using it as "Scotland should/shouldn't be independent because GERS". It's a totally unnecessary argument. Of course Scotland could be independent.

That's not going to wash. As long as it can be manipulated and used as an argument against independence, ignoring it simply isn't an option. The Scottish Government has to do more to make people understand.

[BawWatchin]

1 hour ago, git-intae-thum said:

Rather than bypassing or having to make continual explanations..........what really needs to happen is the leadership having the bottle to admit these statistics are pure hoccum and have them dropped.

They are unnecessary (there are no GERe figures produced!!).

They are a distraction from the economic indicators that we can attain with some degree of certainty and that therefore really matter (GDP, BofP etc) 

They provide ammunition for the devious and unscrupulous among the British nationaists such as that horrible dog food salesman fellow and his cohorts.

All this then leads to confusion and bewilderment for the harder of thought amongst the populous.

As Richard Murphy states they are "crap" statistics.

They should be binned pronto.

The Scottish Government can't simply bin them. It's all they have to base the Scottish Economy on, despite the flaws.

[git-intae-thum]

2 hours ago, BawWatchin said:

The Scottish Government can't simply bin them. It's all they have to base the Scottish Economy on, despite the flaws.

With a bit of political balls.......yes they could.

Nothing wrong with being honest wi folk.

[BawWatchin]

26 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

With a bit of political balls.......yes they could.

Nothing wrong with being honest wi folk.

Nothing to do with political balls and everything to do with economics. If GERS was so easily binable, it would have been one of the first things they did in Government.

[dirty dingus]

Happy New Year to the good guys ..f**k the Tories, Scottish Labour, Scottish Libdems, Britain First, SDL, Orange Order,  SIU, Union Bears, Vanguard Bears and the rest o the kunts that hate the Scottish nation. Saor Alba.