When will indyref2 happen?

[John Lambies Doos]

Like the last Indy No campaign, it's almost as though they want Scotland to vote to leave the UK. 

Let's hope so

[NotThePars]

I just don’t have much faith in the deliverance of independence via lawyering either in driving enthusiasm for the cause or in trusting the courts or Westminster to remotely play fairly. Still listening to what suggestions people have for extra-parliamentary pressure but it’s going to take more than the SNP and trying to by-your-logic unionists into getting a referendum and winning it. Boris is 100x the chancer and shitebag that Cameron was and that’s saying something.

 

I appreciate I’m looking at it differently because it’s not about independence in itself but building a socialist Scotland and while I get people who want to “leave that shite til we’ve broken away” my problem is that, for lack of a better word, the forces of capital in the indy movement and beyond are not leaving it til after indy to sink their claws in.

[Ivo den Bieman]

2 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

Inb4 H_B storms in to tell you the SNP are neoliberal shills

I'd characterise the SNP government as centre-left & I'd say the majority of the population of Scotland want that too. I'd totally agree the movement itself is much more left wing than the SNP. Part of the reason why I think the SNP should front the next campaign instead of using an arms length organisation of well meaning but insufficiently experienced people like they did in 2014.

In the hypothetical future where another referendum takes place I think it essential that the SNP does not lead the Yes campaign.

The SNP got what...44% in December? This too at a recent high water mark with many voting tactically to get rid of / keep the Tory out.

Independence will only be delivered by a coalition that stretches well beyond the SNP to include Greens, socialists and even those Tory one-nation wets who may be privately horrified by the far-right populism and cavalier approach to the law and truth taken by Boris Johnson's cronies. It also needs a fair chunk of apathetic / non voters who don't see that this stuff has anything to do with them, and tends to be cynical and think all politicians the same.

Personally I thought Yes in 2014 went a bit too long on the cultural side and was too light on the hard headed economics and post-independence settlement with the UK.

We are now dealing with a gang of criminals and psychopaths who have stopped at nothing to reach power and will not relinquish it without very bitter resistance. Again, it's time we realised we are no longer dealing with David Cameron. He fought dirtily enough behind his saleman's smile. This lot will ramp up the opposition several times over, and will stop at nothing to ensure their hegemony is maintained. The idea that they care about "democratic deficit" is for the birds.

The toxic payload from the Salmond trial will be maximised and it's by no means certain that Sturgeon's leadership will survive that (even if Salmond acquitted and Sturgeon survives, the fallout will be portrayed in the most damaging light possible). The ferocious onslaught visited on the hapless Corbyn will be maximised on the Scottish independence movement now that the Labour party seems intent on a protracted period of in-fighting and navel gazing and, charitably, is a decade away from returning to power.

People have to realise that the Tories have unbridled power and need pay no heed whatever to devolved administrations which they privately seem intent on undermining. Alistair Jack's recent interview with Gordon Brewer is a very, very sinister thing where he talks in militarised terms and of using plenipotentiary powers to over-rule / undermine devolved administrations. Johnson threatened already at the end of the last parliament to take Health away from Holyrood. He will anyway, selling it in any future trade deal with Americans, and can do so by a simple majority vote, for which he has the numbers, in Westminster. 

The SNP has to realise it can do absolutely nothing about any of this as things stand. The gap between their rhetoric of protecting Scotland and a reality whereby that rhetoric is shown to be hollow is a bind they will face, increasingly. It may be a bitter truth but the SNP have few cards to play at present. My fear is that the rhetoric concerning a plan B that has emanated from the leadership in the last month of so has little substance.

This will be a dark, difficult decade in Scottish politics. 2014 is over. I wish we'd stop harping on about it and upgrade plans to fit the much more difficult terrain the Yes movement now faces. Marches are all very well but will ultimately peter out without the cutting edge of political action. And, any future new Yes coalition must be so much more than the SNP, and certainly not led by them. Yes, they are a hugely credible and electorally successful machine- but they can't face down the cynical coalition of the thrawn, the shitebags, the frightened elderly, and the I'm-all-right-Jacks that won in 2014, alone. The same coalition is still around.

A new yes vote has to offer a hard headed and pragmatic platform with clear and simple messages on the future of Scottish economy, currency, pensions, trade, post-UK neogtiated settlement, foreign policy and route back towards EU membership. Privately I hope the cultural fringe/ movement- kum-bah-yah for independence and Yes unicyclists / avant-garde poets etc- are really de-emphasised next time. It's such a mistake to imagine that the left-leaning impulses of the independence grassroots are in any way appealing to small-c conservative Scotland as a whole. More's the pity.

I think we need a new Scottish Constitutional Convention and a new Canon Kenyon Wright. This political moment feels like 1992 on steroids. If Scottish Labour move to backing another referendum at their special conference later this year (even if they adopt it for the very cynical reason of avoiding imminent oblivion) then that will be of great help. The Tories have taken up a hard right position and won't budge, and the Liberals- who are almost as fanatic in the Tories in the opposition to independence- don't really matter, anyway.

Edited January 13, 2020 by Ivo den Bieman

[DukDukGoose]

On 12/01/2020 at 10:25, Nigel said:

On 12/01/2020 at 10:23, Bairnardo said:

Who said anything about "treatment". 
 
Someones a bit paranoid. Maybe relax a bit mucker. 

Hardly paranoid to think that a section of the population who are regarded as "scum" may be disadvantaged in some way should the other sect gain the wherewithal to do so...

Isn't this what the Tory govt do now?

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

^^^ great post IDB. Especially agree that we need to get the radical indy folks to get to, they were a very polarising force last time and as you say put off many small c conservative types. I see a Scotland run along a fair minded centrist route similar to Scandinavian countries, it works well for them and would appeal to a broad spectrum of Scotland’s voters.

[Baxter Parp]

Like the polls continually showing a preference for No.
I can't understand the rush on this at all.

Probably in a hurry to get away from the UK before the Tories f**k up the country irreparably.

[Baxter Parp]

It's a decent point but tbh winning is not possible without convincing the already wealthy who like going to Lake Garda that independence is the safest way to preserve this.

Fully up for storming the Bastille/Saughton Prison shortly thereafter likes.

I like going to Lake Garda and I think independence is the only way forward for the country. The two aren't incompatable. Going to places like Lake Garda aren't the preserve of the wealthy, for a start.

[Malky3]

6 hours ago, Mastermind said:

Have the bitter Nats actually got a credible Plan B for when Boris Johnson issues a telt this week or next? Just more pointless marching and moaning about the BBC or something?

This is quite the ‘journey’.

I think this is really telling about the real reason as to why the SNP are desperately trying to revive an Independence argument. 

In 2019 the Scottish Parliament only passed four bills into law. That's it. That is the sum total of the work done by a Scottish Government that is quick to tell us everything in the UK is wrong.

https://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/Bills/111325.aspx

There is a real credibility gap in the Scottish Parliament but haranguing Westminster about Brexit and about Indy Ref 2 seems to be doing a good job of hiding the fact that Sturgeon and Co have clearly ran out of ideas as to how to make Scotland a better place to live. 

[Malky3]

7 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Nice trolling but that is an abuse of statistics right there. 

It's factual. The SNP vote has fallen dramatically since 2015 whilst the Conservative vote is up enormously. 

[Malky3]

3 hours ago, Dons_1988 said:

 

Thank you, all fair points.

On section 30, I think BJ saying no is effectively part of the plan. The more the Tory clown tells Scotland they can't have their say, the more people will swing to Yes IMO and that's what the SNP are banking on.

I think it's still a bit too early, going by the polls, for a referendum just yet.

It's clearly part of the plan but the SNP are making an arse of it by over playing it. 

Had Scotland not delivered a decisive verdict in 2014 in a "one in a generation" referendum, or there had been a significant shift in opinion in Scotland then perhaps the idea of Scotland being bullied by a Westminster government might have gained traction, but instead Ian Blackford sounds like a broken record in a political world where things are moving on. 

 

[btb]

11 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

It's factual. The SNP vote has fallen dramatically since 2015 whilst the Conservative vote is up enormously. 

Factual but meaningless, comparing apples & oranges.

 

Edited January 13, 2020 by btb

[Dan Steele]

18 hours ago, Colkitto said:

Would it be fair to say Unionism is now Colonialism?

14 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

The big question is who 'The colonialists' are. 

Well, we're not in the 1600s so fair to say it's not mercantile colonialism that Kincardine likes to point to. Neither is it the grab for land and mineral resources by the military (with slaughter) like America against the Native American population. Maybe it's a less obvious colonialism, one that convinces you that serfdom is your destiny and an inability to take control is your nature, a colonialism that convinces you that it's not possible to speak, not possible to act, not possible to exist. We saw the Westminster and the UK government do it last time, they'll do it again this time. Alister Jack is already using this language. Next up will be the PM refusing a referendum. 

[Malky3]

4 minutes ago, btb said:

Factual but meaningless, comparing apples & oranges.

Meaningless? A considerable fall in support for the main Nationalist party in Scotland and a large increase in support from the main Unionist party in Scotland would only be meaningless to someone who is hard wired to ignore all evidence on faltering support for the Nationalist cause. 

There is no prospect in reality of a replay of the Independence Referendum. The majority of Scots don't want it. 

 

Edited January 13, 2020 by Malky3

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

12 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

It's factual. The SNP vote has fallen dramatically since 2015 whilst the Conservative vote is up enormously. 

It's not factual. That's not how percentage movements work. Going from 15% to 25% is a rise of 10%, not a rise of 66% as you are claiming.

 

 

 

[Malky3]

4 minutes ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

It's not factual. That's not how percentage movements work. Going from 15% to 25% is a rise of 10%, not a rise of 66% as you are claiming.

Going from 434,000 to 693,000 votes is a rise of around 60% which is what I actually claimed. Completely factual. It's not my fault you can't grasp it. 

Edited January 13, 2020 by Malky3

[btb]

1 minute ago, Malky3 said:

Meaningless? A considerable fall in support for the main Nationalist party in Scotland and a large increase in support from the main Unionist party in Scotland would only be meaningless to someone who is hard wired to ignore all evidence on faltering support for the Nationalist cause. 

There is no prospect in reality of a replay of the Independence Referendum. The majority of Scots don't want it. 

 

But it's actually a transference between Unionist parties (with one of the Unionist parties becoming IndyCurious) against an an increase in support for the SNP - the momentum is towards the Indy side

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

12 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Going from 434,000 to 693,000 votes is a rise of around 60% which is what I actually claimed. Completely factual. It's not my fault you can't grasp it. 

Fair Cop.

Why not a comparison to 2017?

[Malky3]

8 minutes ago, btb said:

But it's actually a transference between Unionist parties (with one of the Unionist parties becoming IndyCurious) against an an increase in support for the SNP - the momentum is towards the Indy side

In 2015 the SNP got 1,454,436 votes. Their best ever result in a Scottish General Election. It was notable that was an election held soon after Scotland had delivered a resounding NO to Scottish Independence the year before. Since then the SNP vote has fallen to 977,569 in the 2019 election. Momentum, whichever way you look at it, is away from Scottish Nationalism and Scottish Independence. 

It is true to some extent that the rise in support from the Conservatives comes from a transference of Unionist vote, but the total vote for Nationalist Parties remains stuck at around 45% - 46% of the total vote, and in terms of individual votes is considerably down on 5 years ago. 

[Malky3]

2 minutes ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

Fair Cop.

Why not a comparison to 2017?

Because I am making the point that there is no evidence of a change of opinion in Scotland towards Independence since the last referendum which was in 2014. 

If I was to compare 2015 to 2017 the figures would look even more damming for the SNP

[NotThePars]

I’m not opposed to the SNP leading the campaign for much the same reasons as many others have listed but that’s why I’m trying to get Scottish Labour to back indy. There needs to be an organ that is able to articulate valid criticisms of the SNP and the potential vision of independence that they are offering that isn’t doing so to prop up the decrepit British state.

The other aspect of my belated and lukewarm support for them is that I know more people on Slab (albeit a fucking depressingly low minority atm) who are advocating a campaign of non-violent civil disobedience potentially along the lines of Catalonia to get a referendum.