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Midweek 18/07 - 20/07


Marshmallo

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I have a few other fancies but just a heads up early that Dunfermline are odds against in a couple of places to beat Forfar away on Tuesday night. That will not last.

Forfar are a very decent team. Brechin, Cowdenbeath and Arbroath are not. Not saying they won't win or that 11-10 isn't a decent price but Forfar are worthy of much more respect than the sides they've played so far.

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Middlesbrough at 2/1 at an overrated derby side IMO merit consideration. Dumbarton 7/10 at Queens Park also stood out. And possibly Mk Dons v Bolton. All at a very brief first glance.

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3 I like the look of are Coventry (3/4 at home to Crewe), Leyton Orient (10/11 at home to Stevenage) and Portsmouth (23/20 away to Crawley). All started the season very well. Will look to add a Scottish side for the 4 fold but it's hard to see value outwith the Pars who as someone mentioned are playing a significantly better team than their 3 opponents so far. Falkirk at 1/2 or Raith at 4/6 are the 2 I'll probably choose from.

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Since the season kicked off we have started with the same team in every game, yet i am not sure if that will continue against Forfar in the cup. When we played Arbroath in the first round, we had a week until our next match, so this is a little different with a more important league game coming up a few days later. Johnston has already said that while cup runs are good, the league is the main priority.

However, the squad is pretty thin so if there's going to be any changes, i can see their being six changes at maximum. Mind you, the likes of Falkingham, Wallace and Hopkirk who fall into this category, have come on as subs and have played well. For example, Wallace has scored four goals in four sub appearances.

The league match against Peterhead at the weekend might be less of a betting risk as that will be the usual team.

Also, in regards to El Bak, AJ keeps bringing him off as a precaution to keep him fit for our next game as he's our best striker.

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Put £20 on a MLS game last night Over 2.5 goals. Came in to return £38. Took my £20 out and put the £18 on another MLS game Over 2.5 goals. Returned £33.

Have the £33 on Liverpool to return £47. If it comes in I'll be putting it all on Leyton Orient and Coventry to return around £150.

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I've also gone for

Dumbarton at Queens Park at 4/5 - Dumbarton are flying in the Championship with victories over Hibs and away to St Mirren. They've got quality throughout the team. QP got a really good result at Clyde at the weekend but were dire before that. Dumbarton should really be as short as 1/2 here, the price looks craziness.

Raith at Stenhousemuir at 4/5 - Raith were heading for a draw with us up until their red card, and I think from watching them they'll be a comfortable midtable Championship team. Prior to us scoring against 10 men, they hadn't conceded in three games. Stenny from the looks of things will be mid-lower League One. Full time vs part time midweek could play a part as well. I'd have Raith about 4/6.

Queens at home to Livi at 8/11 - Queens won at Livi at the weekend and by all accounts it should have been much more than 1-0. Livi got humped by Raith the previous week and going by what I saw of Raith, Queens are a stronger side. Add in the fact it's in Dumfries and Queens should be nearer 8/13ish IMO.

Dunfermline are my big bet (price hasn't moved as I'd hoped yet), so them plus one of the above = ~ 15%. No Dunfermline win and I'd need all three of the above for a profit (~ 13%).

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Going for a somewhat foolhardy or brilliantly calculated Forfar (dnb), Annan (+1), Dumbarton (-1) and Falkirk (-2). 66/1. Banking on Dunfermline resting a few players and St Mirren being a bit fed up.

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Queen's Park played alright on Saturday but took about 60 minutes to do so. If Dumbarton get an early goal I think they'll collapse.

Plumped for five fold of Dunfermline, Dumbarton, Shrewsbury, Dagenham and Redbridge and Plymouth. £5 returns £221.81.

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Put £20 on a MLS game last night Over 2.5 goals. Came in to return £38. Took my £20 out and put the £18 on another MLS game Over 2.5 goals. Returned £33.

Have the £33 on Liverpool to return £47. If it comes in I'll be putting it all on Leyton Orient and Coventry to return around £150.

Do you realise that if you put on an Acca covering all these bets that you could have been quite well off. :)

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Do you realise that if you put on an Acca covering all these bets that you could have been quite well off. :)

Yes, had I put it in an accy I'd have the potential to win £150 as opposed to the potential £150 I might win tomorrow ;):P

I've effectively done a scattered accumulator but I'm doing it with no risk. I'm playing with free money as I took my initial £20 stake out straight after my first win. Needless to say I wouldn't have had that option had I done a straight 5-fold.

Even if I'd done a 4-fold with my £18 stake I'd still be getting the same return that I am doing them separately as I keep putting all the winnings on the next bet.

If nothing else there's no way I'd put a 4-fold on, spread over 3 days :lol:

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