Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons

[capt_oats]

39 minutes ago, YassinMoutaouakil said:

Been quickly looking into the permutations re Top 6 and our goal difference is really fucking me off, at least 6 worse than everyone around us, apart from St Mirren who are -14 as well. The 1-6 and 0-4s at Fir Park didn't really wind me up too much at the time but they've left us probably needing 4 points (LOL) to make it as well as a daft amount of luck in other fixtures.

I suppose nobody else has been gettin cuffed 3-0 at Dens either tbf. Am I right in saying that the three games I've mentioned are the only times we've lost by more than a 2 goal margin?

Aye those are the only games we've lost by more than 2.

In all comps we've lost 7 by 1 goal, 6 by 2 and 3 by 2+

Tbh the games that have absolutely fucked us have been the 2 losses to County, losing to Dundee at Dens and not holding on to that point last week.

[Busta Nut]

I'd love us to sneak into 6th. End our season right there.

[Kapowzer]

3 hours ago, capt_oats said:

Aye those are the only games we've lost by more than 2.

In all comps we've lost 7 by 1 goal, 6 by 2 and 3 by 2+

Tbh the games that have absolutely fucked us have been the 2 losses to County, losing to Dundee at Dens and not holding on to that point last week.

I'd add the Brophy brace at FP before Xmas too, he's done nothing since too.

How many games have we scored more than 2? ...... Queen of the South in the League Cup groups .... and that's it. When was the last time we went through a league season without scoring 3 once?

It's not all about conceding if you are 1-0 and do a Levein c. Czech Republic. you've got zero chance of helping the GD column.

But as @RandomGuy. has pointed out, our first half points accumulation was well in excess of what the stats said. Our second half, probably right where we're meant to be.

[capt_oats]

14 minutes ago, Kapowzer said:

I'd add the Brophy brace at FP before Xmas too, he's done nothing since too.

How many games have we scored more than 2? ...... Queen of the South in the League Cup groups .... and that's it. When was the last time we went through a league season without scoring 3 once?

It's not all about conceding if you are 1-0 and do a Levein c. Czech Republic. you've got zero chance of helping the GD column.

But as @RandomGuy. has pointed out, our first half points accumulation was well in excess of what the stats said. Our second half, probably right where we're meant to be.

Nah, the Brophy game is purely at Bobby Madden's door. First giving the soft pen then his nonsense re-take.

Also, we're scored more than Hibs, we've scored more than United and one fewer than Livi. We're entirely mid-table when it comes to goals scored.

[Kapowzer]

Can you get that table to show up till Boxing day?

[capt_oats]

1 minute ago, Kapowzer said:

Can you get that table to show up till Boxing day?

Sure.

We've since scored 7 but conceded 19...

[Kapowzer]

24 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

We've since scored 7 but conceded 19...

5 point accrued territory ... funny enough right where we are.

The three goals thing however. Still blows my mind a bit.

Goals per game with Tony = 1.25

Goals per game without = 0.64 (so half as effective)

Edited March 25, 2022 by Kapowzer

[Busta Nut]

How many goals does KVV have?

Where can you get an up to date list of top goalscorers? I checked about 3 websites and they all had RCC, Morelos and someone else all on different amount of goals.

[Kapowzer]

1 hour ago, Busta Nut said:

How many goals does KVV have?

Where can you get an up to date list of top goalscorers? I checked about 3 websites and they all had RCC, Morelos and someone else all on different amount of goals.

You'd like to think the SPFL official is correct but they may only cover league goals.

Also, following on from the earlier post, number of league games we scored 3 or more (not always wins). We're on course for a record breaker lads.

Edited March 26, 2022 by Kapowzer

[rowsdower]

Gifs don't work on my phone *Roy Castle gif*

That's grim.

[crazylegsjoe_mfc]

7 hours ago, Busta Nut said:

How many goals does KVV have?

Where can you get an up to date list of top goalscorers? I checked about 3 websites and they all had RCC, Morelos and someone else all on different amount of goals.

KVV has 10 goals in all competitions, 8 in the league. Saturday was his only league goal since Boxing Day. 

It would be interesting to see how Alexander managed victories at his other teams. The only time we’ve scored 3 in the league under him was a 3-1 win v Livingston last season and even then, he chucked Gallagher and McGinley on as late subs.

That Brophy game mentioned above was a good example of it. O’Hara on for Woolery when we were 2-0 up still with 25 minutes to go.

 

[crazylegsjoe_mfc]

Just had a look, seems like his teams scored 3 or more regularly enough. There was even a 5-4 game when he was at Fleetwood. In his last full season at Salford, they only scored 3 times or more twice in 37 league games before the pandemic. I wonder if that was the shift in his mentality.

This bit of his wiki about him leaving Scunthorpe seems particularly familiar. They only won 1 out of his last 13 games there.

[Handsome_Devil]

The difference between being cautious and overly negative is subjective and questioning subs in games we won comfortably is ridiculous but I don't think there's much doubt it gives a true insight into Alexander's personality.

The one which stuck out for me (perhaps this is a personal one since I was back and it was the first win I saw in nearly two years) was St Johnstone pre-xmas. They were at their absolute lowest and were on the bus home at 2-0 - without going mental, it was the perfect chance to push for some goals, or show we could play a bit or give Amaluzor and Roberts a chance having barely played. The subs instead we're Shields 75 (fair), Carroll 82 (!) and a last minute cameo for Roberts.

Of course seeing out the win is first priority and when we did that it was daft to be too critical. But even at the time to me it said so much about GA's attitude...St J were absolutely done, the risk was as close to zero as you could get and yet the only thought was basically shutting up shop. It just seemed an utterly needless approach.

 

[capt_oats]

Tbh, I've no strong thoughts or feelings on whether we have/haven't scored an arbitrary number of goals in a game. Ngl, if we were consistently winning games 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 through the season I'd be just fine with that.

That said, I found it amusing that Alexander mentioned that most games in the league had been close this season. Precisely because he's making the choice to shut up shop when we went 2-0 up.

Anyway what's interesting to me is that we've gone from scoring 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.35 up the the break to only scoring 0.63 gpg but conceding 1.72. So our goals scored has gone down and goals conceded has gone up...I'm no tactical genius but that seems a problem.

Fwiw, the only team to have scored fewer than us since the break has been Maloneyball's Hibs and we've conceded more than any team in the league in the same period.

Edited March 26, 2022 by capt_oats

[capt_oats]

I know shots on goal is an entirely useless metric because there's no context but indulge me for a second.

Here are our league fixtures for the season with shots on goal (on target) and shots against (on target) per stats provided by the BBC. Ours are the first numbers, the opposition 2nd.

I've also included the conversion rates pre and post-break below.

Spoiler

01/08/21 - Hibs - 2-3 (L) - 9 (5) | 14 (5)
08/08/21 - St Johnstone - 1-1 (X) - 10 (5) |  13 (4)
21/08/21 - Livingston - 1-2 (W) - 15 (6) | 13 (3)
28/08/21 - Dundee - 1-0 (W) - 4 (3) | 15 (2)
11/09/21 - Aberdeen - 2-0 (W) - 6 (2) | 20 (7)
19/09/21 - Rangers - 1-1 (X) - 5 (1) | 24 (7)
25/09/21 - Ross County - 2-1 (W) - 12 (5) | 18 (6)
02/10/21 - Hearts - 2-0 (L) - 20 (7) | 10 (5)
16/10/21 - Celtic - 0-2 (L) - 5 (0) | 18 (7)
23/10/21 - Dundee United - 2-1 (L) - 11 (5) | 10 (4)
27/10/21 - St Mirren - 2-2 (X) - 8 (4) | 23 (10)
31/10/21 - Rangers - 1-6 (L) - 3 (2) | 30 (12)
06/11/21 - Aberdeen - 0-2 (W) - 2 (2) | 18 (8)
20/11/21 - Hearts - 2-0 (W) - 20 (7) | 6 (4)
27/11/21 - Dundee - 3-0 (L) - 10 (3) | 12 (6)
30/11/21 - Dundee United - 1-0 (W) - 20 (2) | 7 (2)
04/12/21 - Hibs - 1-1 (X) - 12 (5) | 17 (5)
12/12/21 - Celtic - 1-0 (L) - 9 (1) | 26 (7)
18/12/21 - St Johnstone - 2-0 (W) - 7 (2) | 9 (1)
26/12/21 - Livingston - 2-1 (W) - 11 (5) | 7 (3)
------------Winter Break----------------------
18/01/22 - Ross County - 3-1 (L) - 13 (3) | 5 (2)
26/01/22 - Hibs - 0-0 (X) - 9 (2) | 4 (0)
29/01/22 - Hearts - 2-0 (L) - 8 (2) | 11 (5)
01/02/22 - St Mirren - 1-1 (X) - 15 (7) | 8 (3)
06/02/22 - Celtic - 0-4 (L) - 7 (1) | 18 (10)
09/02/22 - Dundee United - 2-0 (L) - 17 (2) | 8 (2)
19/02/22 - Aberdeen - 1-1 (X) - 20 (4) | 6 (3)
27/02/22 - Rangers - 2-2 (X) - 5 (3) | 28 (8)
02/03/22 - Ross County - 0-1 (L) - 17 (3) | 6 (3)
05/03/22 - Dundee -1-1 (X) - 16 (5) | 11 (3)
19/03/22 - St Johnstone - 2-1 (L) - 7 (4) | 8 (2)

Average shots per game pre-break = 9.95 / On target = 3.6
Average shots per game post-break = 12.1 / On target = 3.27

Average shots conceded per game pre-break = 15.5 / On target = 5.4
Average shots conceded per game post-break = 10.27 / On target = 3.72

Total shots pre-break = 199 (72 OT)  Goals scored = 25 Conversion rate = 12.56% (34.7%)
Total shots post-break = 134 (36 OT) Goals scored = 7 Conversion rate =  5.22% (19.4%)

Total shots against pre-break = 310 (108 OT)  Goals conceded = 27 Conversion rate = 8.70% (25%)
Total shots against post-break = 113 (41 OT) Goals conceded = 19 Conversion rate = 16.8% (46.3%)

So since the break we're actually averaging more shots per game (albeit marginally less on target) but not scoring which suggests that we're not creating as high % chances (combined with the whole Tony Watt fucking off situation).

We're also averaging fewer shots on our goal than we were but conceding more...the opposition have coverted 46.3% (that's FORTY SIX POINT THREE PERCENT) of their shots on target.

Fwiw, I get that the numbers stand to reason on account of us having gone behind in most games since the break so it means we've been chasing but still...

Edited March 26, 2022 by capt_oats

[YassinMoutaouakil]

I will still find it incredibly funny if we make Top 6. I really hope we're all singing Graham Alexander's Well Army at Almondvale after a 1-0 and a 0-0 get us over the line.

[Al B]

MORE shots since the break you say? But on target has gone down you say?

 

Kevin

Van

VEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN

[capt_oats]

28 minutes ago, Al B said:

MORE shots since the break you say? But on target has gone down you say?

 

Kevin

Van

VEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN

Has a conversion rate of 17% and shot accuracy of 52%...

[capt_oats]

Since I've nothing better to do I was curious to see how the same numbers compared for Alexander's 18 league games in charge last season.

Spoiler

09/01/21 - St Mirren - 1-1 (X) - 11 (3) | 16 (2)
17/01/21 - Rangers - 1-1 (X) - 5 (3) | 16 (5)
23/01/21 - Aberdeen - 2-0 (L) - 6 (3) | 26 (8)
27/01/21 - Ross County - 1-2 (W) - 12 (6) | 11 (5)
03/02/21 - Dundee United - 2-1 (W) - 13 (6) | 15 (3)
06/02/21 - Celtic - 2-1 (L) - 7 (5) | 22 (9)
10/02/21 - Kilmarnock - 0-1 (W) - 11 (4) | 18 (5)
13/02/21 - Accies - 1-4 (L) - 11 (1) | 15 (5)
20/02/21 - St Johnstone - 0-3 (L) - 1 (1) | 22 (7)
24/02/21 - St Mirren - 0-0 (X) - 14 (2) | 7 (2)
27/02/21 - Hibs - 0-2 (W) - 12 (2) | 16 (3)
06/03/21 - Livingston - 3-1 (W) - 14 (6) | 10 (4)
20/03/21 - Kilmarnock - 4-1 (L) - 9 (3) | 13 (5)
10/04/21 - St Mirren - 1-0 (W) - 11 (3) | 15 (7)
21/04/21- Accies - 0-1  (W) - 12 (3) | 5 (1)
01/05/21 - Kilmarnock - 2-0 (W) - 11 (2) } 18 (4)
12/05/21 - Dundee United - 2-2 (X) - 12 (5) | 13 (6)
16/05/21 - Ross County - 1-2 (L) - 7 (1) | 10 (2)

Average shots per game = 9.94 / On target = 3.27
Average shots conceded per game = 14.88 / On target = 4.61
Total shots = 179 (59 OT)  Goals scored = 22 Conversion rate = 12.29% (37.2%)
Total shots against = 268 (83 OT)  Goals conceded = 24 Conversion rate = 8.95% (28.91%)

So there you have it, it was much closer to the period of this season up to the break. Although again it's worth bearing in mind that we took the lead in 10 of those 18 games compared with 11 of the 20 up to the break this season and only 1 of 11 since the break.

It suggests that whatever fuckery Alexander has been up to since the winter break has left us far less efficient in terms of converting chances (despite taking more shots at goal) and less effective defensively despite facing fewer shots on average than either of these 2 other periods.

Edited March 27, 2022 by capt_oats

[RandomGuy.]

10 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

It suggests that whatever fuckery Alexander has been up to since the winter break has left us far less efficient in terms of converting chances (despite taking more shots at goal) and less effective defensively despite facing fewer shots on average than either of these 2 other periods.

The xG Gods have taken control of your fate after the obscene overpeformance before Christmas.

Their power is unrivalled.