Motherwell FC - A Thread For All Seasons

[Swello]

2 minutes ago, capt_oats said:

Also, noticed this on the TL.

I know xStats aren't for everyone but that's genuinely hilarious. 

For idiots - does that mean we are 12 points worse off from where we "should" be?

[capt_oats]

Just now, Swello said:

For idiots - does that mean we are 12 points worse off from where we "should" be?

That's how I'm reading it. Aye.

Underperforming by 12 points.

[fat_tony]

39 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

If that means Butcher at CB i'll cry.

(this boy might be shite but he's my only hope)

It's that age old question of "where are we most shite". I'd much rather see him in the midfield than stuck at CB.

[dezz]

That’s mental don’t know whether to read that as us being very unlucky,  very shite, or (more likely) a mix of both - unlucky pre-WC and shite post-WC? 

Should be on 31 points and chasing our rightful place amongst Europe’s elite. 

[RostokMcSpoons]

Looking at the other end of that graph (I have to avert my eyes from our position), why the hell are Celtic at the top.   Doesn't everyone pretty much expect them to get 3 points every game, so how can their Expected Points be far enough below that for them to be 'bestest' ???   

Just goes to show, footy stats are mostly pish, far as I'm concerned

 

[eliphas]

Haud on. Lamie is injured? I missed that. Magic 

Also, being 12 points off where we should feels kinda right.  Probably should have

- Won Dundee U at home (21 shots and no goals). We drew.

- Won Aberdeen at home (12 shots to their 7). We lost.

- Won Killie at home (15 shots to their 3). We drew 

...and picked up a few more draws rather than chucking it it with schoolboy defending. 

Got that was fun looking back. Real real fun.

Edited February 9, 2023 by eliphas

[eliphas]

1 hour ago, Busta Nut said:

There is a few rumours kicking around one of the new guys is going to play out of position. 

If that means Butcher at CB i'll cry.

(this boy might be shite but he's my only hope)

Looks like that might be the case. What's the point in even benching Dunachie if he's nowhere near it? He's like break glass in emergency but only if it's like a triple emergency and legs have literally fallen off.

[ATLIS]

1 hour ago, capt_oats said:

Also, noticed this on the TL.

I know xStats aren't for everyone but that's genuinely hilarious. 

I'm normally one for following and reading into stats but had to unfollow Andrew Caskie lately as his stuff is largely nonsense  Most stuff I've read had Livi around where we are now +/-5pts or so and he has us second bottom by his stats. It's an outlier by some margin too as most other stuff is a bit away from what he's got.

[ropy]

Just get the new guys on the pitch, get them pointing and shouting, don’t care where they play, just inject some energy and urgency into the team.  A good run around and a 3-0 win will set them up for the next league match.

[ATLIS]

4 minutes ago, ATLIS said:

I'm normally one for following and reading into stats but had to unfollow Andrew Caskie lately as his stuff is largely nonsense  Most stuff I've read had Livi around where we are now +/-5pts or so and he has us second bottom by his stats. It's an outlier by some margin too as most other stuff is a bit away from what he's got.

And for those interested btw here's a look at a predicted table



And a look at your run to the split, games % wise:

Edited February 9, 2023 by ATLIS

[rowsdower]

2 minutes ago, ATLIS said:

And for those interested btw here's a look at a predicted table



And a look at your run to the split, games % wise:

10th on goal difference? Done! 

Great work everyone, see you in August. 

[CoF]

1 hour ago, RostokMcSpoons said:

Looking at the other end of that graph (I have to avert my eyes from our position), why the hell are Celtic at the top.   Doesn't everyone pretty much expect them to get 3 points every game, so how can their Expected Points be far enough below that for them to be 'bestest' ???   

Just goes to show, footy stats are mostly pish, far as I'm concerned

 

I assume if it's based on xG then it means they've taken a pile of points relying on difficult chances, i.e. scoring outside the box. You're right though, without context and analysis it's a pretty pointless and hard to understand table .

[RandomGuy.]

1 hour ago, RostokMcSpoons said:

Looking at the other end of that graph (I have to avert my eyes from our position), why the hell are Celtic at the top.   Doesn't everyone pretty much expect them to get 3 points every game, so how can their Expected Points be far enough below that for them to be 'bestest' ???   

Because xPoints would give them something like 2.7pts for games they win.

Everyones method seems to be vary but some literally just ratio out xG figures.

For instance your loss to Aberdeen. WyScout xG is 0.94 for you, and 2 for Aberdeen. Handily thats virtually 3 as I cant actually be arsed working it out, so they'd claim your xPts for that game was ~0.94 and Aberdeens was ~2.

Add this up over the season so far and you can kind of see why your total is so high. You lose a lot of games but in game your xG figures are generally close to your opponents. You're probably at a ~0.5 xPts difference in most games and have simply lost more games than you've won. Celtics is so big because they win a lot of games and its almost impossible for their xPts in a game to total 3, so they're always "getting lucky".

Its not a great model to judge anything on, really. Needs more added into it to make it worthwhile.

I'm also not sure how he does it, but it kind of feels like it will be the method to have such large figures involved.

Edited February 9, 2023 by RandomGuy.

[RostokMcSpoons]

Hmmm, that set of predicted results has us as favourites against St Mirren.   I really can't see that being an accurate reflection of our current situation - it's just too soon!  We need time for players to return to fitness, redemption arcs, a sudden change of luck, perhaps a new manager...
 
Or are we just expected to get quite a few draws and pick up all our points that way?  (That also seems unlikely, as we give away a goal or two every bloody game)

[Desp]

1 hour ago, RandomGuy. said:

Because xPoints would give them something like 2.7pts for games they win.

Everyones method seems to be vary but some literally just ratio out xG figures.

For instance your loss to Aberdeen. WyScout xG is 0.94 for you, and 2 for Aberdeen. Handily thats virtually 3 as I cant actually be arsed working it out, so they'd claim your xPts for that game was ~0.94 and Aberdeens was ~2.

Add this up over the season so far and you can kind of see why your total is so high. You lose a lot of games but in game your xG figures are generally close to your opponents. You're probably at a ~0.5 xPts difference in most games and have simply lost more games than you've won. Celtics is so big because they win a lot of games and its almost impossible for their xPts in a game to total 3, so they're always "getting lucky".

Its not a great model to judge anything on, really. Needs more added into it to make it worthwhile.

I'm also not sure how he does it, but it kind of feels like it will be the method to have such large figures involved.

Nope. Not a fucking clue. 

[Kapowzer]

Getting round to reading all the stuff about Flao today and a number of posters probably have nailed bits of the story.

For me he was underpaid for the role based on the going rate. Partly through him serving his apprenticeship with us, being promoted internally and us having a habit of doing stuff on the cheap. I'm sure he realised this long ago and would have been courted due to his favourable standing in our game for a long while. Outwith the OF, Aberdeen probably can pay the highest and owner is a self confessed fan. Going to the OF, if there was an opening, means not upping sticks but all taking on all their bullshit that goes along with it. No doubt also saw less capable, less media friendly and massive roasters on bigger money too must have irked.

I don't think he jacked our job with nothing concrete, that would be mental. I do believe McCormack tapped him up and an agreement was put in place that he could join them by not leaving us in the lurch so with start date that was fluid. Aberdeen not been seen to poach and preserve his PR with us. All this talk of 7 teams making enquiries, yeah well one of them already had their man and the other 6 didn't know, let's be honest.

McCormack is a businessman who is himself being graded on how he runs Aberdeen, at present they're woefully underperforming. He obviously sees Flao as key to an upturn and he just got irritated and impatient that his successors search didn't seem to have a fire lit under it and took the impetus, forcing us to make a statement of our own.

Questions will arise, did Flao approach our Chairman and ask to match it/come close to it to stay? We're going to the market to pay closer to what he has been offered at Aberdeen anyway. When did Flao first approach them? Its normally a 3 month notice period for roles of his stature (end of Feb = end of Nov - mid World Cup), he resigned on the 12th so that's 6 weeks to his confirmed start date from today (27th). Or has that been hastened? It seems he did steer our transfer window while in theory competing against his new employer which is a potential conflict of interest but let's be honest we don't really swim in the same sea or do we?

Just like a player, if he moved to Luton Town as CEO we'd wish him all the best, back slap and feel involved in his future success. When its a team in the same league albeit with a much bigger pot of cash, there a bit of "meh" from me anyway. I always kinda hoped if he left us it would be to somewhere like the SFA/SPFL where he could make a difference or England.

I don't resent him going he has a young family to look after and his 8 years at the helm of us aged him in excess of that. The backstory however, I could do without. This falling on his sword (aka Robinson narrative) and suddenly blown away by all the interested clubs the following morning as his WhatsApp pinged like a reversing bin lorry.

But, I don't know how else he could have done it mid-season and kept everyone happy. 

Maybe moving the AGM a month earlier had something more to it, certainly a lot more awkward questions to answer than they did with just an underperforming team and rookie manager.

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Kapowzer

[Busta Nut]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

f**k me.

[rowsdower]

"After the Sligo game I was at the bar, and the directors we're there. Billy big baws McMahon walked up to me and said the drinks were on him. I was having a half pint of lager and a can of coke for the wean. The c**t though he could buy us back with a cheap round after that display."

[ZX1886]

35 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

I’m all for our next Chief Executive being hired based on how many pints they’re willing to buy me after every embarrassing defeat tbh

[Swello]

John Boyle once didn't pay for my dinner in Reykjavik when I was in the same place as him - he saw me looking distressed about how a pizza could cost 25 quid.  Leaving all that administration stuff aside,  that's when my doubts about him crept in.