mjw Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Stephen kinnock taking some heat today. Hiding the 29k a year he paid in school fees before the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Owen Smith sets out some good policy ideas that I would love to see Labour adopt, but then undoes it by saying something sexist.It's refreshing to hear Labour setting out practical Labour policy ideas again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Owen Smith sets out some good policy ideas that I would love to see Labour adopt, but then undoes it by saying something sexist.It's refreshing to hear Labour setting out practical Labour policy ideas again though. When I read he wanted to smash Theresa,I thought he meant a Keith lemon backdoor arrangement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, mjw said: When I read he wanted to smash Theresa,I thought he meant a Keith lemon backdoor arrangement. That's a hell of a mental image to leave folk with. You should be ashamed of yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BerwickMad Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 There's argument over whether it was actually sexist or some Welsh rugby term. It was refreshing to hear some actual policies though, rather and just pathetic meme's and hard done by stories. I hope there's enough pressure on Corbyn now to reveal so of his own, but I suppose it depends how confident he is and if he thinks he's already won. It's easier to be always against something without providing any solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cream Cheese Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 So 29% of people who allegedly voted Labour last time, won't vote Labour this time round? Well that settles it. Labour should totally force Corbyn out undemocratically for the sake of those 29% and a hand full of swing voters. The other 71% will be no great loss i'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 So 29% of people who allegedly voted Labour last time, won't vote Labour this time round? Well that settles it. Labour should totally force Corbyn out undemocratically for the sake of those 29% and a hand full of swing voters. The other 71% will be no great loss i'm sure. You are assuming the 71% who voted for Miliband's Labour wouldn't vote for anyone but Corbyn's. If we lose 29% of the people who voted for us in an election we lost that would take a lot of support from elsewhere to win the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cream Cheese Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Just now, jmothecat said: You are assuming the 71% who voted for Miliband's Labour wouldn't vote for anyone but Corbyn's. If we lose 29% of the people who voted for us in an election we lost that would take a lot of support from elsewhere to win the election. You are assuming the 29% who said they won't vote for Corbyn's Labour aren't just saying so in order to get it all their own way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 YouGov seem to confirm the trend towards Tory and way from Labour. Given that we are 15 months into parliament this is when governments usually are struggling in the polls. Labour are pretty much at or around their core vote. "At least" the libs are not picking up votes of off them. Someone I know jokes Corbyns aim is one million members and one million voters. "jokes". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 This Owen Smith guy is just a bit of an idiot isn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 20 minutes ago, Jamaldo said: This Owen Smith guy is just a bit of an idiot isn't he? Yeah but which bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cream Cheese Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 21 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: Yeah but which bit? The Welsh bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 YouGov seem to confirm the trend towards Tory and way from Labour. Given that we are 15 months into parliament this is when governments usually are struggling in the polls. Labour are pretty much at or around their core vote. "At least" the libs are not picking up votes of off them. Someone I know jokes Corbyns aim is one million members and one million voters. "jokes". You're still going by the old rules of Westminster politics - and following the polling norms. By that standard there wouldn't be a Tory government and we'd have comfortably voted remain. I see the suggestion of a progressive alliance is being put forward in the Guardian. That seems to me to be a very sensible approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 1 minute ago, pandarilla said: You're still going by the old rules of Westminster politics - and following the polling norms. "following polling norms"? lol. I have been saying the same thing about polling for years on this site, they do not give the exact result but do indicate trends. Unlike you, I took time to understand what polling was and how it does and does not work. It relies of modelling the responses into groups that anticipate polling day behaviour. It is a snapshot of current opinions and has inherent uncertainties, but within those bounds it can be used to guage changing attitudes. Quote and we'd have comfortably voted remain. The GE result (which incidentally I loudly expressed my fears over) was because the polling lacked priming, that is set up questions before asking about intentions. The referendum polling had problems because referendums are usually one offs and its hard to work out who will turn out and and how they differ in their answers given to pollsters vs how they vote on the day. The lack of long term data to work with makes referendums more difficult to model, despite this several pollsters nailed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 The GE result (which incidentally I loudly expressed my fears over) was because the polling lacked priming, that is set up questions before asking about intentions. The referendum polling had problems because referendums are usually one offs and its hard to work out who will turn out and and how they differ in their answers given to pollsters vs how they vote on the day. The lack of long term data to work with makes referendums more difficult to model, despite this several pollsters nailed it. So you're admitting that your prediction of electoral doom for labour in a few years is basically pointless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, pandarilla said: So you're admitting If this is what gives your ego comfort then there is little I can do to change your mind. Data is data. Extrapolating information from data requires models, "All models are wrong but some are useful" George Box. This discussion is a little above you really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 If this is what gives your ego comfort then there is little I can do to change your mind. Data is data. Extrapolating information from data requires models, "All models are wrong but some are useful" George Box. This discussion is a little above you really. The two issues I had with your post were as follows:- labour's core vote? The party are going through a civil war and I don't think you can make any prediction about the core vote of the labour party. The soul of the party is up for grabs and a split is a real prospect.- you suggested that mid term is when governments are normally at their most vulnerable. We've just had a massively divisive referendum and now there's a new prime minister. The 'norms' do not apply here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 30 minutes ago, pandarilla said: - you suggested that mid term is when governments are normally at their most vulnerable. Data says yes. Quote We've just had a massively divisive referendum and now there's a new prime minister. The 'norms' do not apply here. New Prime Ministers have a bounce. I have said this over and over and over again. This are always happening in politics that are divisive. Most Labour voters wanted an In vote, May wanted an In vote. Technically Corbyn wanted an In vote. Why would the Out vote favour the Tories? UKIP has fallen, Labour voters are not departing to UKIP in any great numbers. How does Labour win voters in the age groups 35-65, in the Midlands in the C1C2 economic bands? That is a crude "over view. Its all that is available publicly. In private the parties will have much more sophisticated data. But that is expensive and the newspapers dont buy that. Edited to change In to Out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Far too much reliance on data.Things are changing very quickly and the data becomes meaningless. People are people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 17 minutes ago, pandarilla said: Far too much reliance on data. Guesses and astrology are so much better. Quote Things are changing very quickly Not an argument against data. Quote the data becomes meaningless. Does it? If you ask people at a specific time what their opinion is that remains valid for that time: for ever. Polls are snapshots of opinions at points in time. Why are you struggling with the basics here? Have you really spent no time learning about this stuff before offering your "opinions" on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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