Granny Danger Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 2 hours ago, Ross. said: Only if they are going abroad. Anyone with equities in large caps is probably OK. The markets have rocketed almost in correlation to the drop in the pound. If it drops below 1.10 to USD I think I'll sell everything I have, wait for the rebound and a crash in prices. I'm going to take this as financial advice. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Pound up 2% against the dollar, up 1.5% against the Euro. Big gains against all currencies - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 37 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said: The consolidated Treaties (there is a pdf on the EU website) state that only countries who are Members of the EU or the EEA are in the Single Market. If a country leaves the EU or EEA, it ceases to be a member of the Single Market. So after Brexit, Britain must apply to join the EEA via a new agreement with the EU. That agreement will be negotiated after Article 50 is invoked. The Conservative manifesto commitment assumed that Britain would in the EU. Here are the sections on the referendum and Single Market. Page 72 "We are clear about what we want from Europe. We say: yes to the Single Market. Yes to turbo- charging free trade. Yes to working together where we are stronger together than alone. Yes to a family of nation states, all part of a European Union – but whose interests, crucially, are guaranteed whether inside the Euro or out. No to ‘ever closer union.’ No to a constant ow of power to Brussels. No to unnecessary interference. And no, of course, to the Euro, to participation in Eurozone bail-outs or notions like a European Army." "It will be a fundamental principle of a future Conservative Government that membership of the European Union depends on the consent of the British people – and in recent years that consent has worn wafer-thin. That’s why, after the election, we will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in Europe, and then ask the British people whether they want to stay in the EU on this reformed basis or leave. David Cameron has committed that he will only lead a government that offers an in-out referendum. We will hold that in-out referendum before the end of 2017 and respect the outcome." Page 73 "We will legislate in the first session of the next Parliament for an in-out referendum to be held on Britain’s membership of the EU before the end of 2017. We will negotiate a new settlement for Britain in the EU. And then we will ask the British people whether they want to stay in on this basis, or leave. We will honour the result of the referendum, whatever the outcome." "We will protect our economy from any further integration of the Eurozone. The integration of the Eurozone has raised acute questions for non-Eurozone countries like the United Kingdom. We bene t from the Single Market and do not want to stand in the way of the Eurozone resolving its di culties. Indeed, given the trade between Britain and the Eurozone countries we want to see these economies returning to growth. But we will not let the integration of the Eurozone jeopardise the integrity of the Single Market or in any way disadvantage the UK." "We want to preserve the integrity of the Single Market, by insisting on protections for those countries that have kept their own currencies. We want to expand the Single Market, breaking down the remaining barriers to trade and ensuring that new sectors are opened up to British firms. We want to ensure that new rules target unscrupulous behaviour in the nancial services industry, while safeguarding Britain as a global centre of excellence in nance. So we will resist EU attempts to restrict legitimate nancial services activities." So where's the commitment to stay in the Single Market after a vote for Brexit? "Yes to the Single Market" is just a statement of Government policy in 2015. It would no longer be valid in the event of a Brexit victory. The UK is also a signatory to the EEA agreement. As this isn't the same as the EU, it remains to be seen how that one will work out when the A.50 notification is submitted. We can leave the lawyers to argue that one (it's been challenged). The commitment to the Single Market looks pretty plain to me, and as I said before comes without a caveat. Notably, there are no such words saying "yes to the EU" in there. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyingscot Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said: Pound up 2% against the dollar, up 1.5% against the Euro. Big gains against all currencies - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm. That's because of the large falls before hand. Also to those saying the GBP was below 1 EUR that was someone quoting a rate at Gatwick Airport. Which is like quoting petrol prices on a motorway as evidence petrol is expensive. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Michael W said: The UK is also a signatory to the EEA agreement. As this isn't the same as the EU, it remains to be seen how that one will work out when the A.50 notification is submitted. We can leave the lawyers to argue that one (it's been challenged). The commitment to the Single Market looks pretty plain to me, and as I said before comes without a caveat. Notably, there are no such words saying "yes to the EU" in there. Under the Treaties, all EU Members must be signatories to the EEA agreement as a condition of membership. There was no need for a "Yes to the EU". The Conservative Party under Cameron was firmly committed to EU membership even though he wanted a renegotiation. The Tories' main concern was the lack of progress in expanding the Single Market, especially in services, and that was reflected in the manifesto. ETA - it's surprising that the media is not commenting on the ability of May to get Parliamentary support for her Single Market exit plan. There is a large number of Europhile Tories who could vote against it. Edited January 17, 2017 by Bishop Briggs 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: I'm going to take this as financial advice. There's a reason I still work for a living. That said, if I'm right and you are quids in, I'll take 1.5% thanks. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 13 minutes ago, flyingscot said: That's because of the large falls before hand. Also to those saying the GBP was below 1 EUR that was someone quoting a rate at Gatwick Airport. Which is like quoting petrol prices on a motorway as evidence petrol is expensive. Really? The media speculated that the Pound would fall substantially, especially against the Dollar and Euro, if May committed to leaving the Single Market. I can't see the relevance of your second paragraph. The exchange rates at airports are always terrible, usually 10% (or more) worse than the banks. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said: Really? The media speculated that the Pound would fall substantially, especially against the Dollar and Euro, if May committed to leaving the Single Market. I can't see the relevance of your second paragraph. The exchange rates at airports are always terrible, usually 10% (or more) worse than the banks. Most of the drop is already priced in. GBP is about 20-25% down on a year ago versus most currencies. There is still a major element of "Wait and see what actually happens" about the markets. Seen predictions covering 1.05 to 1.35 versus the dollar depending on what actually happens. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG_03 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 An indyref seems a certainty now. The UK government won't give scotland a special deal. They wouldn't even give us a decent devolution. Late 2018/early 2019 for an indyref. Guy verhofstadt has withdrawn his candidacy so can remain as eu negotiator, good news for Scotland. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ross. said: Most of the drop is already priced in. GBP is about 20-25% down on a year ago versus most currencies. There is still a major element of "Wait and see what actually happens" about the markets. Seen predictions covering 1.05 to 1.35 versus the dollar depending on what actually happens. Context 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 8 minutes ago, GTG_03 said: An indyref seems a certainty now. The UK government won't give scotland a special deal. They wouldn't even give us a decent devolution. Late 2018/early 2019 for an indyref. Guy verhofstadt has withdrawn his candidacy so can remain as eu negotiator, good news for Scotland. Guy Verhofstadt hates Nationalists and wants a United States of Europe. Have you read any of his books? http://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/guy-verhofstadt/europes-last-chance/9780465096855/ "In Europe's Last Chance, Guy Verhofstadt—former prime minister of Belgium and current leader of the liberal faction in the European Parliament—provides the essential framework for understanding Europe today, laying bare the absurdity of a system in which each member state can veto legislation, opt in or out of the Euro, or close borders on a whim. But Verhofstadt does not just indict the European Union, he also offers a powerful vision for how the continent can change for the better. The key, argues Verhofstadt, is to reform the European Union along the lines of America's federal government: a United States of Europe strong enough to stand with the United States of America in making a better, safer world." https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/post-brexit-eu-structural-reforms-by-guy-verhofstadt-2016-07?barrier=accessreg "the most important lesson to take away from the “Brexit” referendum that sealed its fate is that one cannot defeat nationalism by pandering to nationalists. If the EU wants to tackle the strains of nationalism that are undermining its very raison d'être, it will have to listen to people’s concerns and offer a radical new vision for effective governance. Otherwise, the nationalist cancer will spread." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 17 minutes ago, GTG_03 said: An indyref seems a certainty now. The UK government won't give scotland a special deal. They wouldn't even give us a decent devolution. Late 2018/early 2019 for an indyref. Guy verhofstadt has withdrawn his candidacy so can remain as eu negotiator, good news for Scotland. There will be an 'indyref' when sturgeon thinks she'll win ie when the polls show around 60 percent yes consistently . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG_03 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 [emoji38] [emoji38] Guy Verhofstadt hates Nationalists and wants a United States of Europe. Have you read any of his books?http://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/guy-verhofstadt/europes-last-chance/9780465096855/ "In Europe's Last Chance, Guy Verhofstadt—former prime minister of Belgium and current leader of the liberal faction in the European Parliament—provides the essential framework for understanding Europe today, laying bare the absurdity of a system in which each member state can veto legislation, opt in or out of the Euro, or close borders on a whim. But Verhofstadt does not just indict the European Union, he also offers a powerful vision for how the continent can change for the better. The key, argues Verhofstadt, is to reform the European Union along the lines of America's federal government: a United States of Europe strong enough to stand with the United States of America in making a better, safer world."https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/post-brexit-eu-structural-reforms-by-guy-verhofstadt-2016-07?barrier=accessreg "the most important lesson to take away from the “Brexit” referendum that sealed its fate is that one cannot defeat nationalism by pandering to nationalists. If the EU wants to tackle the strains of nationalism that are undermining its very raison d'être, it will have to listen to people’s concerns and offer a radical new vision for effective governance. Otherwise, the nationalist cancer will spread." I am aware of his views. The EU could do with a boost and Scotland leaving the UK and joining the EU will be a big win for the EU. Also just because guy verhofstadt wants a united States of Europe doesn't mean it's going to happen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTG_03 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 There will be an 'indyref' when sturgeon thinks she'll win ie when the polls show around 60 percent yes consistently . I disagree and I think deep down you know this isnt true. Keep thinking that way if it makes you feel better though.It'll be much harder for another better together campaign due to brexit. I've no doubt the result will be more favourable to yes this time. Remains to be seen if it's enough to get over 50 % 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyingscot Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 16 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said: Really? The media speculated that the Pound would fall substantially, especially against the Dollar and Euro, if May committed to leaving the Single Market. I can't see the relevance of your second paragraph. The exchange rates at airports are always terrible, usually 10% (or more) worse than the banks. The drop already happened. It fell post vote from $1.47-ish to $1.30 and fell again late Sep / Early Oct when the hard brexit was rumoured. It rebounded a bit but it took a tumble before the speech today. My second point was exactly that. Someone was saying 1 Euro was worth more than 1 pound, but that is only because a terrible airport rate is used when there is a captive market. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Just read Mays speech,basically "gies what we want or ill turn us into a tax haven" is what she said And parliament/house of lords gets to vote on it 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 Apple hikes app store prices over weak pound http://news.sky.com/story/apple-raises-app-store-prices-by-up-to-25-amid-weaker-sterling-10732208?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 15 minutes ago, GTG_03 said: I disagree and I think deep down you know this isnt true. Keep thinking that way if it makes you feel better though. It'll be much harder for another better together campaign due to brexit. I've no doubt the result will be more favourable to yes this time. Remains to be seen if it's enough to get over 50 % I have no doubt Scotland will be independent one day but not in the immediate future i.e not within the next 10 years. Even brexit couldn't shift the polls. Sturgeon is adopting a gradualist approach as she knows a hastily called second referendum followed by a loss will put independence on the back burner possibly for good, if the example of Quebec is anything to go by. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
git-intae-thum Posted January 17, 2017 Share Posted January 17, 2017 16 hours ago, Bishop Briggs said: Is "git-intae-thum" the latest sock puppet of Fizzy Afro/Fide/Pepperoni/Cream Cheese? No; but since we are playing guess who........are you heehaw/mcspreader? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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