Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[John Lambies Doos]

Not actually saying this isn’t true, but is there any strong evidence of the EU signing trade deals in the closing months/weeks of protracted negotiations? The claim that they always hold out until the last possible moment is common, but no one ever cites examples that would parallel this expected eleventh-hour deal with the UK. So when did the EU actually go to the wire in negotiating international trade deals with third countries?

EU should just tell Minter Britain to f**k off. They have the patience of saints

[O'Kelly Isley III]

Real politik. (remember them, they got to the semi final of the Fairs Cup in 1964)
Both sides want a deal, but everyone outside the Daily Express knows that in reality the EU hold the strongest hand. It's very typical of the EU to sign off deals at the last minute, and I don't see anything different happening here. 
The UK will take the common sense route and effectively sign up to the EU's demands, but for Johnson and co. it's vital that they're seen as 'winning'. Everyone knows that, especially Michel Barnier.
Some kind of compromise will be agreed where the Tories can go back to the country and present it all (or at least some of it) as a victory. The EU won't give a f**k about the internal politics of the UK, they'll have a deal that suits them. 
 
 
 

I recognise your logic but I don't agree with it - this could be the glaring exception to the last-minute rule, due entirely to the arrogance of the UK Government and the vitriol of the British media. I expect the EU to stick exactly to their current position, in which case there will be absolutely no 'deal' for Johnson to try and slip past the likes of the ERG and the Daily Telegraph. The alternative of course would be a disastrous No Deal but no doubt there are some who would consider that worthwhile to demonstrate Brittania's vainglorious mettle.

[coprolite]

5 hours ago, Antlion said:

Not actually saying this isn’t true, but is there any strong evidence of the EU signing trade deals in the closing months/weeks of protracted negotiations? The claim that they always hold out until the last possible moment is common, but no one ever cites examples that would parallel this expected eleventh-hour deal with the UK. So when did the EU actually go to the wire in negotiating international trade deals with third countries?

Every trade deal they have ever done has been right at the end of negotiations. 

 

[coprolite]

5 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Real politik. (remember them, they got to the semi final of the Fairs Cup in 1964)

Both sides want a deal, but everyone outside the Daily Express knows that in reality the EU hold the strongest hand. It's very typical of the EU to sign off deals at the last minute, and I don't see anything different happening here. 

The UK will take the common sense route and effectively sign up to the EU's demands, but for Johnson and co. it's vital that they're seen as 'winning'. Everyone knows that, especially Michel Barnier.

Some kind of compromise will be agreed where the Tories can go back to the country and present it all (or at least some of it) as a victory. The EU won't give a f**k about the internal politics of the UK, they'll have a deal that suits them. 

 

 

 

Not sure the EU particularly wants a deal. They 'd prefer one but their overriding aim is to make sure that full membership is more attractive to existing members than leaving. 

[Antlion]

20 minutes ago, coprolite said:

Every trade deal they have ever done has been right at the end of negotiations. 

 

Well obviously. You don’t agree to a deal and then negotiate it for six-seven years, or even agree it and then continue negotiating for three-four years. The agreement of a deal is the end of negotiations. 

Have the EU and a third country ever set out a time frame for negotiations and then come down to the wire, agreeing just before the clock runs out?

[welshbairn]

17 minutes ago, coprolite said:

Every trade deal they have ever done has been right at the end of negotiations. 

 

That's been settling the last remaining issues after resolving the bulk of it. Doesn't sound like this lot have agreed to anything yet, with London trying to backtrack on what they agreed to last year.

[coprolite]

5 minutes ago, Antlion said:

Well obviously. You don’t agree to a deal and then negotiate it for six-seven years, or even agree it and then continue negotiating for three-four years. The agreement of a deal is the end of negotiations. 

 

I knew there would be a logical explanation 

[Antlion]

3 minutes ago, coprolite said:

I knew there would be a logical explanation 

There usually is. I’m struggling to think of any circumstances in which the EU has negotiated with a third country on a time-stamped basis, with negotiations going on until the last days of that time frame. From what I can see, their negotiations usually go on for years and years (sometimes the EU’s fault; sometimes the third country’s fault; sometimes just circumstances) before agreements are signed.

In this case, the UK has stated that the current arrangement ends with the year. I’m not saying there won’t be a last-minute deal: I’m just curious as to whether anyone has examples of the EU agreeing to a deal weeks before a third-country’s self-imposed time frame for negotiation runs out (and thus after the time has run out for legislation to get through any parliament).

[O'Kelly Isley III]

There usually is. I’m struggling to think of any circumstances in which the EU has negotiated with a third country on a time-stamped basis, with negotiations going on until the last days of that time frame. From what I can see, their negotiations usually go on for years and years (sometimes the EU’s fault; sometimes the third country’s fault; sometimes just circumstances) before agreements are signed.
In this case, the UK has stated that the current arrangement ends with the year. I’m not saying there won’t be a last-minute deal: I’m just curious as to whether anyone has examples of the EU agreeing to a deal weeks before a third-country’s self-imposed time frame for negotiation runs out (and thus after the time has run out for legislation to get through any parliament).

This is an important point. There can't have been many trade deals in which one party has issued a very tight timeframe and then sat truculently across the table with its arms folded.

[strichener]

5 hours ago, Antlion said:

There usually is. I’m struggling to think of any circumstances in which the EU has negotiated with a third country on a time-stamped basis, with negotiations going on until the last days of that time frame. From what I can see, their negotiations usually go on for years and years (sometimes the EU’s fault; sometimes the third country’s fault; sometimes just circumstances) before agreements are signed.

In this case, the UK has stated that the current arrangement ends with the year. I’m not saying there won’t be a last-minute deal: I’m just curious as to whether anyone has examples of the EU agreeing to a deal weeks before a third-country’s self-imposed time frame for negotiation runs out (and thus after the time has run out for legislation to get through any parliament).

Happens every time the EU sit down with Norway and the Faroes over fishing rights.

[Antlion]

6 minutes ago, strichener said:

Happens every time the EU sit down with Norway and the Faroes over fishing rights.

Probably true; but fishing right negotiations aren’t comprehensive free trade deals. In these arrangements, did Norway predetermine a deadline (I genuinely have no idea)?

Once again, I’m not saying that an agreement won’t be reached at the last minute; I’m trying to find whether the constantly-repeated “the EU only agrees to deals at the last minute” claim is based any actual previous trade deal talks, or whether it’s based on other negotiations they’ve been engaged in (internal ones, fishing arrangements, etc).

It seems a lot of people are banking on this despite no one knowing of any EU-third country free trade arrangements that have been signed just before a deadline and with no time for parliaments to pass them.

[strichener]

1 hour ago, Antlion said:

Probably true; but fishing right negotiations aren’t comprehensive free trade deals. In these arrangements, did Norway predetermine a deadline (I genuinely have no idea)?

Once again, I’m not saying that an agreement won’t be reached at the last minute; I’m trying to find whether the constantly-repeated “the EU only agrees to deals at the last minute” claim is based any actual previous trade deal talks, or whether it’s based on other negotiations they’ve been engaged in (internal ones, fishing arrangements, etc).

It seems a lot of people are banking on this despite no one knowing of any EU-third country free trade arrangements that have been signed just before a deadline and with no time for parliaments to pass them.

I presume those that are saying such things are probably basing it on the treaty talks rather than trade deals.

I have zero confidence that a deal will be reached by the end of the year.

 

Edited September 3, 2020 by strichener

[Baxter Parp]

UK plan to undermine withdrawal treaty threatens Brexit trade talks

Internal market bill to override elements of protocol on Northern Ireland

    Sections of the internal market bill — due to be published this Wednesday — are expected to “eliminate the legal force of parts of the withdrawal agreement” in areas including state aid and Northern Ireland customs, according to three people familiar with the plans. 
 

https://www.ft.com/content/9906e0d4-0c29-4f5f-9cb0-130c75a2f7a7

End game.

[Bully Wee Villa]

They haven't the slightest interest in getting a deal. This is all about trying to switch the blame to the EU. Also, they would rather have the economic disaster of Brexit as soon as possible so they can say that the inevitable recession was caused by Covid, not Brexit.

[Paco]

You really would love to think anyone who voted for Johnson for Brexit reasons would be repulsed by him backing out of the ‘oven-ready deal’ that he made every candidate swear allegiance to before the election.

That’s just far too optimistic though isn’t it?

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, MixuFruit said:

What are they doing?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/06/five-weeks-clinch-brexit-deal-uk-move-boris-johnson-to-say

They're playing chicken with a lorry, driving a Morris Minor.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

Surely good news for the cause of Scottish independence. 

I wonder how many wavering Scots voters will be appalled enough by Westminster's behaviour, to come down firmly on the side of 'yes' ? 

Quite a few I suspect. 

[John Lambies Doos]

Covid had screwed all countries, a financial rebalance is incoming. With this in mind Europe should just tell rump Britain to sling their hook. Too much posturing here, just get on with it.

[resk]

Is that the Brexits all sorted then? Haven't really been paying attention TBQHWY.

[Detournement]

It's impossible that we end up with a hard Brexit with Sir Keith leading the opposition. Expect the most forensic PMQs performance of all time to save the day.