Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Michael W]

The Scottish referendum was legally binding by Act of the UK parliament; the EU one was not. Parliament can of course choose to ignore the EU referendum if they wish. Legally they can do so, though it would be politically undesirable and would finish the government. I suspect May knows this, hence her opposition to a parliamentary vote that may not go in favour. 

Correct result, however - Parliament should decide rather than the royal perogative being exercised. This is parliamentary sovereignty in action. 

[Benjamin_Nevis]

This is going to be utterly fantastic viewing over the coming months.

[Colkitto]

22 minutes ago, renton said:

All over the place I suspect. Assuming the appeal fails it'll require the government to present some form of it's terms to the EU before parliament, and if that's a hard Brexit with all that implies? Then party lines may muddle, as MPs value self preservation and Labour MPs in particular will be wary of their own backyard electoral math, but if faced with a deal designed to save London and f**k the rest?

Interesting...  Also, I wonder if she will go for an early election? 

[ICTChris]

Maybe the real Brexit is the friends we made along the way?

I don't really see the problem, we live in a Parliamentary democracy, Parliament should decide.  If MPs want to vote against it then they can.  The majority of MPs supported Remain but I think Parliament will vote to trigger Article 50.  The Conservatives have united around the 'Brexit means Brexit' line, Labour are a shambles and around 70% of their MPs have constituencies that voted for Brexit.  Jeremy Corbyn actually said that A50 should be triggered the day after the vote!

The most likely route for no Brexit is that Parliament could vote to reject the terms negotiated or something like that, jamming up the process so that it becomes unworkable and eventually a further vote or new Parliament will rule out triggering Article 50.  I don't think that'll happen though.

[Dunning1874]

Labour have to play this extremely carefully and intelligently, not traits Corbyn as often shown as leader. It gives them the opportunity to contribute to completely destroying any confidence and trust in the Tories among half of the electorate, but they could easily destroy the little confidence remaining in themselves too. They have to very carefully pitch their message at respecting the result of the vote and being willing to vote for Article 50 to be triggered, but only on the right terms, ie. no hard Brexit. If they can pull that off they have the government staring down a barrel, but they could so easily make it look like they're failing to respect the result and get even more of a backlash from the electorate than the Tories do.

[zidane's child]

49 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

The Tories currently have a majority in the Commons. How does the arithmetic stack up for triggering Article 50 vote? 

While this is true, there is still a split within the Tories on EU membership so it may come down to what the MP thinks will benefit their constitution.

Is it fair to say that Labour ans SNP MP's will probably vote against article 50?

[zidane's child]

29 minutes ago, Michael W said:

The Scottish referendum was legally binding by Act of the UK parliament; the EU one was not. Parliament can of course choose to ignore the EU referendum if they wish. Legally they can do so, though it would be politically undesirable and would finish the government. I suspect May knows this, hence her opposition to a parliamentary vote that may not go in favour. 

Correct result, however - Parliament should decide rather than the royal perogative being exercised. This is parliamentary sovereignty in action. 

I don't think a 2nd EU ref would happen, but it would be interesting to know what the outcome would be this time given the increased media coverage it's had since June and the political/economical fallout that we've also witnessed.

Some leave voters may wish to change their vote given they may be more informed on what EU membership actually involves and not basing your decision on a big red bus with Gove, Johnson and Farage onboard.

[Colkitto]

If WM has to pass legislation I wonder if the Scottish parliament will be involved? 

[RadgerTheBadger]

Will the SNP scrap indyref2?

[strichener]

1 hour ago, Aladdin said:

Its not the method of leaving that is the issue.  Its the fact that EU Law has been incorporated into domestic law since joining.  That domestic law would then be changed should Article 50 be triggered and only Parliament have the ability to do that.

No domestic laws will be changed as a result of triggering article 50.  Not a single one. 

[sparky88]

1 hour ago, ayrmad said:

UKIP will run the country if that happens.

She'll  do it in such a way that she'll keep kicking the can down the road. So after March comes and goes, she'll say it will be triggered after the German elections. That'll come and go and then she'll say it would be unwise to leave the EU in the run up to a uk general election or something.

[strichener]

1 hour ago, renton said:

All over the place I suspect. Assuming the appeal fails it'll require the government to present some form of it's terms to the EU before parliament, and if that's a hard Brexit with all that implies? Then party lines may muddle, as MPs value self preservation and Labour MPs in particular will be wary of their own backyard electoral math, but if faced with a deal designed to save London and f**k the rest?

The ruling does not require the government to set out terms, only to get parliamentary approval for triggering the exit.  It will be down to the government to decide what form and detail will be provided for the vote.

[Sooky]

My first thought would assume that the vast majority of Tories will vote in favour, and they'll be joined with DUP/UUP/Carswell (that's an extra 11)

With regards to Labour, you'd assume the handful of leave supporters will support it. The curious thing is remain supporting MPs in north east leave constituencies. Abstain?

[SweeperDee]

Pound shooting back up. Buy your Euros.

[welshbairn]

20 minutes ago, Sooky said:

My first thought would assume that the vast majority of Tories will vote in favour, and they'll be joined with DUP/UUP/Carswell (that's an extra 11)

 

I'm not so sure, 185 voted Remain against 138 who voted Leave.

[Billy Jean King]

47 minutes ago, strichener said:

The ruling does not require the government to set out terms, only to get parliamentary approval for triggering the exit.  It will be down to the government to decide what form and detail will be provided for the vote.

Naive in the extreme to think they could possibly even attempt to win a parliamentary vote WITHOUT revealing their hand.  This will 100% force them to lay their terms for exit firmly on the table - how could a decision be reached any other way ???

The will need to tip toe around their own dissenters offering concesions along the way to have any chance of getting the pro remain mp's on side.

You are 100% right in stating the ruling does not require them to set out their terms but in reality it 100% will !

 

[WILLIEA]

Excellent news for democracy and a small fightback agains mob rule.

This is what the civil war was fought for centuries ago, to ensure the supremacy of parliament.

[Billy Jean King]

23 minutes ago, Sooky said:

My first thought would assume that the vast majority of Tories will vote in favour, and they'll be joined with DUP/UUP/Carswell (that's an extra 11)

With regards to Labour, you'd assume the handful of leave supporters will support it. The curious thing is remain supporting MPs in north east leave constituencies. Abstain?

Political suicide if they did given NI voted firmly to remain !

[George Parr]

These developments simply add more weight to the argument that there should never have been a referendum in the first place.

Offering an EU vote as a bribe in return for a majority was careless at best but to do it when the majority of the country's elected representatives actively support remaining was beyond the pale. I hope the fall out goes a long way to destroying the modern Conservative Party. 

[Sooky]

It's since been changed, but I'm outraged that one of the judges is an ex-fencer.