Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[BawWatchin]

41 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

56 minutes ago, mizfit said:

The Brexit party, DUP & Tories coalition of Chaos then?

Not enough numbers

You forgot the Lib Dems.

[John Lambies Doos]

You forgot the Lib Dems.

Easily forgettable

[sparky88]

3 hours ago, mizfit said:

The Brexit party, DUP & Tories coalition of Chaos then?

Given that the Brexit Party have only one policy at the moment, extrapolating the result of a poll to an election that will happen in perhaps 3 years seems daft. I fully expect Brexit Party to implode long before then.

[John Lambies Doos]

Given that the Brexit Party have only one policy at the moment, extrapolating the result of a poll to an election that will happen in perhaps 3 years seems daft. I fully expect Brexit Party to implode long before then.

They won't implode until brexit is delivered

[doulikefish]

They won't implode until brexit is delivered

Or a scientific cure for being gay is develpoed

[Granny Danger]

Don’t know if this is the right thread, but if a GE was called as a result of a Brexit stalemate and the Tories and Labour combined were in a minority then it could spell the end of FPTP and change U.K. politics forever.

The Lib Dems would want it, the SNP would support it and I imagine the Brexit mob would see it as very beneficial to remaining a force beyond one election.

 

[Tibbermoresaint]

1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

Don’t know if this is the right thread, but if a GE was called as a result of a Brexit stalemate and the Tories and Labour combined were in a minority then it could spell the end of FPTP and change U.K. politics forever.

The Lib Dems would want it, the SNP would support it and I imagine the Brexit mob would see it as very beneficial to remaining a force beyond one election.

 

Why would the SNP support it? 

[dirty dingus]

5 hours ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

Why would the SNP support it? 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-snp-would-vote-to-introduce-proportional-representation-at-westminster-nicola-sturgeon-confirms-10223302.html

 

[Tibbermoresaint]

12 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/the-snp-would-vote-to-introduce-proportional-representation-at-westminster-nicola-sturgeon-confirms-10223302.html

 

Fair enough. Thank you.

[Donathan]

Don’t know if this is the right thread, but if a GE was called as a result of a Brexit stalemate and the Tories and Labour combined were in a minority then it could spell the end of FPTP and change U.K. politics forever.
The Lib Dems would want it, the SNP would support it and I imagine the Brexit mob would see it as very beneficial to remaining a force beyond one election.
 

Farage has spoken out against FPTP and in favour of a PR system

[Granny Danger]

13 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

 

Farage has spoken out against FPTP and in favour of a PR system

 

 

Yeah, the only parties that still benefit from FPTP are Labour, the Tories and, more recently, the SNP who still favour PR.  Like I said an abandonment of FPTP at Westminster would change the political landscape for ever.

I think the only thing that can save the Tories is Gove becoming PM as he has signaled a more pragmatic approach to Brexit.  He knows there are not the numbers at Westminster to support a No Deal and as a result he might manage to avoid a GE.  Raab, Johnson or their ilk won’t get No Deal through and might find it impossible to govern or even be brought down by Tory ‘moderates’.  A GE could be forced that would spell disaster for the Tories.

I reckon a GE called any time in the next 12 months if there has been no resolution of Brexit will throw up a political map that none of us would have predicted a few months ago.  The only thing that might change that is Labour commiting to a Second Referendum and signalling their support for Remain.  I don’t see that happening.

 

[renton]

13 hours ago, doulikefish said:

14 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

They won't implode until brexit is delivered

Or a scientific cure for being gay is develpoed

Nailed it. The Brexit party will prosper so long as it keeps the message about Brexit and nothing else. It'll do fine so long as Farage keeps downplaying his ambitions towards number 10.

If that cloak falls away, and the Brexit party is revealed as a socially conservative party on wider issues, they'll start to lose socially liberal voters. Some people would further abandon them if forced to seriously weigh up the prospect of PM Farage.

[Donathan]

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Yeah, the only parties that still benefit from FPTP are Labour, the Tories and, more recently, the SNP who still favour PR.  Like I said an abandonment of FPTP at Westminster would change the political landscape for ever.

I think the only thing that can save the Tories is Gove becoming PM as he has signaled a more pragmatic approach to Brexit.  He knows there are not the numbers at Westminster to support a No Deal and as a result he might manage to avoid a GE.  Raab, Johnson or their ilk won’t get No Deal through and might find it impossible to govern or even be brought down by Tory ‘moderates’.  A GE could be forced that would spell disaster for the Tories.

I reckon a GE called any time in the next 12 months if there has been no resolution of Brexit will throw up a political map that none of us would have predicted a few months ago.  The only thing that might change that is Labour commiting to a Second Referendum and signalling their support for Remain.  I don’t see that happening.

 

 

I feel pretty bad for the remain supporting Tory MPs who may need to choose between allowing no deal to happen or potentially voting down the government and letting Corbyn in.

 

There's a 14 day period between a government being VONC and a GE being triggered to see if anyone else can command a majority, I wonder if someone like Grieve or Letwin could find a way to become an interim PM with support of remainer Tories, Blairite Labour MPs, Lib Dems, Change UK and the SNP so that a GE could be avoided.

[Granny Danger]

2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

I feel pretty bad for the remain supporting Tory MPs who may need to choose between allowing no deal to happen or potentially voting down the government and letting Corbyn in.

 

There's a 14 day period between a government being VONC and a GE being triggered to see if anyone else can command a majority, I wonder if someone like Grieve or Letwin could find a way to become an interim PM with support of remainer Tories, Blairite Labour MPs, Lib Dems, Change UK and the SNP so that a GE could be avoided.

At the risk of sounding like a MSM hack we are in uncharted territory.  Things that would have seemed impossible a few months ago could now happen.

That said I cannot think of any reason why either the Lib Dem’s or the SNP would want to avoid a GE.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

2 hours ago, Donathan said:

 

I feel pretty bad for the remain supporting Tory MPs who may need to choose between allowing no deal to happen or potentially voting down the government and letting Corbyn in.

 

 

f**k them. It's their party who have caused this chaos.

2 hours ago, Donathan said:

 

 

 

There's a 14 day period between a government being VONC and a GE being triggered to see if anyone else can command a majority, I wonder if someone like Grieve or Letwin could find a way to become an interim PM with support of remainer Tories, Blairite Labour MPs, Lib Dems, Change UK and the SNP so that a GE could be avoided.

Why in God's name would the SNP and Lib Dems want to avoid a GE ? 

They're both on course for significant gains, and for the SNP there would be the added bonuses of wiping out the Tories in Scotland (and shutting Davidson's mouth) and seeing a hard-right party effectively gain power south of the border.

A General Election in the next 6 months would be magnificent. 

[LongTimeLurker]

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

...That said I cannot think of any reason why either the Lib Dem’s or the SNP would want to avoid a GE.

Any risk of having Nigel Farage as PM would give most people who aren't completely obsessed by constitutional politics a reason to think very carefully about what to do next. That would be a case of having somebody like Donald Trump in control with none of the checks and balances of the American system. 

[GiGi]

During a period of political upheaval, stalemate on the brexit issue and resignation of the PM it would be crazy not to have a GE before the end of this year.

[Granny Danger]

The ‘problem’ with a Parliamentary democracy as we have in the U.K. and in Scotland is that it’s not the people as a whole who chose the PM.  

I don’t have any problem with that in principle.  I do have a problem with the lack of oversight by parties in power of their leaders.

For example, Corbyn is certainly not representing the majority of the PLP OR the wider Labour membership on the issue of Brexit.

The PM (and arguably by extension all party leaders) is supposed to be first amongst equals not a presidency type figure.

 

[glasgow-sheep]

Westminster voting intention:

BREX: 26% (+4)
LAB: 20% (+1)
LDEM: 20% (-4)
CON: 18% (+2)
GRN: 9% (+1)
CHUK: 0% (-1)

via @YouGov, 04 - 06 Jun
Chgs. w/ 29 May

CHUKle

[glasgow-sheep]

YouGov - 2019-06-06
BRX: 26%
LDem: 20%
Lab: 20%
Con: 18%
Grn: 9%

Flavible Projection
BRX: 278 (+278)
Lab: 141 (-121)
LDem: 113 (+101)
SNP: 52 (+17)
Con: 41 (-277)
PC: 4 (-)
Grn: 2 (+1)
Ind: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ 2017
https://t.co/Je1uAHBwt1