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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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2 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

All the Green votes on the list look like they’re coming from the SNP.  I view that as a positive thing so long as people vote for the most effective result in their region.

Interesting to see again that BallotBoxScotland's analysis shows that the only list seat the SNP win is in the Highlands again, along with two seats in the Highlands going to the Greens.  Looking increasingly likely again that outside of the Highlands (and maybe Southern Scotland at a stretch), a list SNP vote won't help them much at all and may again inadvertently let another Tory in.

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On 17/12/2020 at 13:39, MixuFruit said:

Good polling for Greens;  who is Lorna Slater?

As said above, she's co-leader of the Greens. Andy Wightman's resignation likely moves her up to second on the Lothian list so she has a good chance of being elected in May. She stood in the Leith Walk by-election last year and came within about 250 votes at the final stage of beating the SNP.

Incidentally, for that by-election the council produced full tables, meaning you could see where voters second, third etc preferences went. 1.1% of SNP voters and 1.3% of Green voters gave their second preference to the Tories; 0.6% of SNP voters and 0.3% of Green voters gave their second preference to UKIP. Flipping it round, 4.7% of UKIP voters gave their second preference to the SNP and 3.5% went to the Greens.

I'll never understand how people can vote like that. 

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16 hours ago, Andrew Driver said:

You would like to think so and the direction of travel is only one way.   The time for Nicola to step up to the mic has arrived.   She's lost my vote after this Scottish Election if we don't see a proper strategy to get this done.  

What would that strategy look like?

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If anybody's ever fancied holding office in a "major" political party, now's surely the time to sign up to the Lib Dems.

If he'd stuck at it, @Ad Lib would surely be one of the favourites for leader when Willie Rennie gets a proper job.

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That Mr Starmer better start talking nice.

Quote

“The SNP would appear to be the real winners. Not only do they win all but two Scottish constituencies, but the most likely outcome is a Labour-SNP coalition government, which would have an overall majority of just over 20 seats.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/02/poll-predicts-a-uk-general-election-now-would-wipe-out-tory-majority

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Doesn't matter, which is why the Tories couldn't give a flying f**k about how they look right now.

Still about four years to go, which gives them plenty of time to put the mask of Compassionate Conservatism back on, bung a few tax cuts to the middle-class, and ease back in for another five years with another comfortable majority.

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1 hour ago, Highland Capital said:

What would the SNP need to do to win Edinburgh South?  Ian Murray seems to be the immovable object.  Orkney and Shetland would be a big win for the SNP mind.

A juicy Covid scandal would do it. Visiting a local care home for a photo op while waiting for a test result.

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2 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Anyway doesnae matter. Tories are going to do away with fixed term parliaments.

It's a bit of an indictment of the electorate that fixed terms are huge hindrance to any party in government. All they have to do it wait for something positive to happen and roll the dice on a snap election. You'd like to think people might remember all the grot they've been up to for the previous <x> years, but people either have the memory of goldfish, or are so self-interested that they'll take a chocolate biscuit and turn a blind eye to their neighbours being force-fed another shit sandwich.

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1 hour ago, Highland Capital said:

What would the SNP need to do to win Edinburgh South?  Ian Murray seems to be the immovable object.  Orkney and Shetland would be a big win for the SNP mind.

Medium term, I don't think there's anything they can do take it. It's fairly ironic that Labour's last stronghold in Scotland is virtually impregnable because it's filled with middle class natural Tory and Lib Dem voters. Whilst it's not an exclusively middle class constituency, it's the perfect storm for not going SNP.

It's got a huge middle class pro-UK, pro-Remain population in places like Morningside, Merchiston, Grange and the former Edinburgh Pentland suburbs. A lot of these people have probably voted Tory in the past but coalesce around Ian Murray as the only viable alternative to the SNP. In the north of the constituency, you've got the areas containing most of the Edinburgh Uni students (Marchmont, Newington, Sciennes, etc). This'll give the constituency a huge rUK population (in fact, I'm sure I've read that it's by some distance the constituency with the lowest number of Scottish born residents). Those largely middle class students from England are absolutely prime Labour targets, seeing as the Busted Flushes aren't a viable alternative.

In fact, it might not be a bad thing that these demographics are effectively corralled into one constituency. If they were split evenly across two, they could well push both constituencies towards Labour/Tories.

Edited by Gordon EF
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