Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Pearbuyerbell]

Just now, John Lambies Doos said:

 

 

This is good. Very good

 

 

 

It's only a sub-sample.   https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fko52um47n/TimesResults_170510_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

[welshbairn]

5 hours ago, Father Ted said:

 

Did you use a crayon?

Hope you get a win, will make up for Tories being roundly horsed again up here.

As always.

 

It's called a related contingency bet, they'll only pay out on singles. Can't read the odds but it wouldn't be much. I'd be happy to take a bet from him that he gets less money back than his stake. Charity or whatever.

Edited May 14, 2017 by welshbairn

[Pearbuyerbell]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

It's called a related contingency bet, they'll only pay out on singles. Can't read the odds but it wouldn't be much. I'd be happy to take a bet that he gets less money back than his stake.

East Lothian is more likely to go Labour than Tory.   East Ren may well go Labour also, betting that was a mistake.    The only one that might be a sensible punt was Moray at even money. 

But he's a think c**t who only bet a quid!!!

[John Lambies Doos]

It's only a sub-sample.   https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fko52um47n/TimesResults_170510_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

Worth absolutely nothing then I'm afraid

[Shades75]

41 minutes ago, AyrExile said:

Misinformation. Are you referring to the brexit process now being respected? Wasn't so long ago indy ref was being pencilled in for 2018. 

"Pencilled".

Sturgeon has consistently been open to negotiate the timing of the next referendum.

"When the terms of the Brexit negotiations become clear", is how she has always described the potential date for that referendum.

The "Brexit process being respected", is shorthand for the letting the Tories, and May, do whatever they feel like and anyone using the term needs to undo a couple of the buttons in the back of their head.

[The_Kincardine]

9 minutes ago, Shades75 said:

"Pencilled".

Sturgeon has consistently been open to negotiate the timing of the next referendum.

"the timing of the next referendum." is the phrase of fools.

[Shades75]

Just now, The_Kincardine said:

"the timing of the next referendum." is the phrase of fools.

I told you last week that I think you're an arsehole and that I'll not be engaging with you anymore.

Take the hint.

[1320Lichtie]

Tories getting awful big for their boots I think....

Looking forward to watching the results. Maybe we will have some competition afterall. Will make the SNP wins even sweeter.

[The_Kincardine]

11 minutes ago, Shades75 said:

I told you last week that I think you're an arsehole and that I'll not be engaging with you anymore.

I'm impressed at how well you followed it through.

[mizfit]

Leave campaigner backs Angus Robertson over Douglas Ross.

Well...that was unexpected

[Kyle]

29 minutes ago, mizfit said:

Leave campaigner backs Angus Robertson over Douglas Ross.

Well...that was unexpected



 

I think Big Gus' local profile will help him hold on in Moray. I'd be quite shocked if he lost, even with a big Tory resurgence in the North East.

[mizfit]

I think Big Gus' local profile will help him hold on in Moray. I'd be quite shocked if he lost, even with a big Tory resurgence in the North East.

He also has a massive national profile tbf. Coupled with his hobby of dishing out bodyings to may at PMQ's he should be safe.

[vikingTON]

I'm not convinced that any increase in the Tory vote will prove efficient enough for them to compete in more than a handful of constituencies. They are probably picking up new support from staunch Britnats and old biddies in the central belt (see their councillors slithering into Shettleston, Paisley north-west etc.); these votes would achieve absolutely nothing against the Sturgeon tsunami under FPTP.

 

National polling isn't a very good guide in the absence of battleground constituency ones to provide a clearer picture.

 

 

 

 

[Pearbuyerbell]

6 minutes ago, virginton said:

I'm not convinced that any increase in the Tory vote will prove efficient enough for them to compete in more than a handful of constituencies. They are probably picking up new support from staunch Britnats and old biddies in the central belt (see their councillors slithering into Shettleston, Paisley north-west etc.); these votes would achieve absolutely nothing against the Sturgeon tsunami under FPTP.

 

National polling isn't a very good guide in the absence of battleground constituency ones to provide a clearer picture.

 

 

 

 

 

Nobody cares about your convictions, given your history as one of the worst political predictors going, which a chequered history of being schooled by swampy and many other on basic political trends you're too thick to understand.    

What's actually happened is:  

1.   The SNP voter who're against a 2nd referendum has gone since Nicola's announcement.    

2.   A small number of SNP out the EU voters are casting elsewhere.    

 

In the past the SNP vote ( which hit 60% in certain outliers) showed the SNP at levels far higher than a potential Yes vote.   They've lost voters as I've correctly outlined.   

 

We've arrived perfectly now at the constitutional election scenario.     I'll be marking my vote for the SNP.   

[vikingTON]

Nobody cares about your convictions, given your history as one of the worst political predictors going, which a chequered history of being schooled by swampy and many other on basic political trends you're too thick to understand.    

What's actually happened is:  

1.   The SNP voter who're against a 2nd referendum has gone since Nicola's announcement.    
2.   A small number of SNP out the EU voters are casting elsewhere.    
 
In the past the SNP vote ( which hit 60% in certain outliers) showed the SNP at levels far higher than a potential Yes vote.   They've lost voters as I've correctly outlined.   
 
We've arrived perfectly now at the constitutional election scenario.     I'll be marking my vote for the SNP.   

You didn't start with and still haven't got a single shred of credibility. Hard lines, you utter fantasist.

[ICTChris]

Survation poll

CON 48 (+1)

LAB 30 (=)

LD 8 (+1)

UKIP 4 (=)

Apparently UKIP are polling so low in YouGov that they don't even have their own column.

Ashcroft posted a Scottish poll, not sure if it's been discussed

Westminster voting intention

SNP - 41%

CON - 30%

LAB - 17%

LDEM - 7%

OTHER - 5%

Poll taken 12th May, 3,476 sample size.  You can probably find the tables on his website, I can't be arsed looking for them.

[ICTChris]

Mike Smithson, who runs the Political Betting site, is posting the seat spreads from Sporting Index / spreadex.

Latest was a day ago, SI / Spreadex figures

Conservative - 396-402 / 387-403

Labour - 156-162 / 156-162

Liberal Democrats - 15-18 / 15-18

SNP - 43-46 / 44-47

[Kyle]

Survation (Edinburgh S):

SNP 30 (-4)

CON 20 (+3)

LAB 40 (+1)

LD 3 (-1)

GRN 7 (+3)

 

All to play for in Edinburgh South. The Greens aren't standing in that constituency, so you could conceivably see a large number of votes transferring over to the SNP.

Edited May 15, 2017 by Kyle

[ICTChris]

Electoral Calculus have posted a Scotland prediction.  Figures are compared to 2015 GE in Scotland.

SNP - 42.7% (-7.3%) / 46 seats (-10)

Conservatives - 29.7% (+14.8%) / 11 seats (+10)

Liberal Democrats - 7% (-0.5%) / 2 seats (+1)

Labour - 16.3% (-8%) / 0 seats (-1)

 

[renton]

1 minute ago, Kyle said:

Survation (Edinburgh S):

SNP 30 (-4)

CON 20 (+3)

LAB 40 (+1)

LD 3 (-1)

GRN 7 (+3)

 

All to player for in Edinburgh South. The Greens aren't standing in that constituency, so you could conceivably see a large number of votes transferring over to the SNP.

Conceivably a strong Tory campaign there, at Labour's expense could let the SNP through the middle. Given the Greens aren't standing there, the SNP will doubtless pick up some of that support.