Kyle Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 Just now, renton said: Conceivably a strong Tory campaign there, at Labour's expense could let the SNP through the middle. Given the Greens aren't standing there, the SNP will doubtless pick up some of that support. Indeed - considering the national swing from labour to the Tories, its inconceivable that wont take some effect in Edinburgh South. I think there's a fair chance Labour will end up coming third this time round. There seemed to be a huge number of Tory voters lending their support to Ian Murray last time. I can't see that happening this time given that their preferred candidate has a chance this time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 15, 2017 Author Share Posted May 15, 2017 Indeed - considering the national swing from labour to the Tories, its inconceivable that wont take some effect in Edinburgh South. I think there's a fair chance Labour will end up coming third this time round. There seemed to be a huge number of Tory voters lending their support to Ian Murray last time. I can't see that happening this time given that their preferred candidate has a chance this time. Only problem with that is that Ian Murray, in all but name, is a Tory 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 I don't believe the Conservatives will gain ten seats. I think they'll maybe gain three or four, the Lib Dems might gain two and Labour will hold onto Edinburgh South. The advantages of incumbency and the higher number of SNP activists give the SNP MPs a huge advantage. Also, I think a lot of people are reading too much into the council election results. I've seen some people predicting that my MP, Joanne Cherry will be unseated in Edinburgh South West - absolutely no chance of that happening IMO. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 (edited) 12 minutes ago, ICTChris said: I don't believe the Conservatives will gain ten seats. I think they'll maybe gain three or four, the Lib Dems might gain two and Labour will hold onto Edinburgh South. The advantages of incumbency and the higher number of SNP activists give the SNP MPs a huge advantage. Also, I think a lot of people are reading too much into the council election results. I've seen some people predicting that my MP, Joanne Cherry will be unseated in Edinburgh South West - absolutely no chance of that happening IMO. I think the Tories will gain more than 3 or 4, but I've seen some articles suggesting they'll game as many as a quarter of Scotland's seats. 14 or 15 seats. I'm struggling to see where they're close enough to seriously challenge the incumbent to gain that number of seats. Their vote share will clearly go up considerably in the Borders, Aberdeenshire, Perth, Angus and East Ren etc where they will likely directly take some of the SNP's vote, but the rest of their increase will be made up of PULs who will be switching from labour or the lib dems to the Tories because of their views on the constitution. I'd say the Tories are in with a shout in East Ren, Edinburgh South, Perth, Angus, Dumfries, Berwickshire, Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen South and Moray. Gordon is fanciful considering where they're coming from, and I'd say Banff and Buchan will hang on as well. Of those, I can't see them winning in Angus or Moray because of the longstanding SNP MPs. I don't see them winning Aberdeen South either. That leaves East Ren and Edinburgh South (where they are absolutely miles back), Perth (they have a genuine chance in North Perthshire and may gain tractions in South Perthshire too, depending on how much is made of Tasmina's law society probe) Dumfries, Aberdeenshire and Berwickshire (where I think they'll win comfortably). So maybe 5 or 6 seats total. Anything more would be pretty good going IMO. Edited May 15, 2017 by Kyle 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 Was just a matter of time tbh. Willie Wilson will do anything to stay relevant. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 The Tories will get max 3 seats in Scotland next month. Trust me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 The only poll that's relevant is the one on June 9th. I remember 1992 and everybody and his dog said that Labour would win the GE. Of course John Major and the Tories swept to power for a fourth term. That's when I decided to stop buying newspapers. This is a non-judgemental statement of facts and an irrefutable truth. © 2017 McSpreader 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 15, 2017 Author Share Posted May 15, 2017 I'm loving all this talk about 15 Tory Mps in Scotland...SNP already have a thumping mandate for Indy 2; but when the Torys spectacularly fail to get anywhere near this; it will be complete justification for another referendum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 Go back to the first page of the 2015 GE thread and check some of the predictions on there.6-12 SNP seats was the general feeling. It didn't quite work out that way and it even ruined at least one poster. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edinabear Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 Pretty depressing that the SNP has divided Scotland to such an extent that people are turning to the Tory party as the alternative. Never thought I'd see Scotland trapped in this Nationalist vs Unionist debate. -10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mizfit Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 Pretty depressing that the SNP has divided Scotland to such an extent that people are turning to the Tory party as the alternative. Never thought I'd see Scotland trapped in this Nationalist vs Unionist debate. Ms. Davidson did that as soon as she started wooing the bigot vote, let's not pretend otherwise. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Bully Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, edinabear said: Pretty depressing that the SNP has divided Scotland to such an extent that people are turning to the Tory party as the alternative. Never thought I'd see Scotland trapped in this Nationalist vs Unionist debate. Interesting Username for an Alloa fan 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 It's not really tbh; the place is crawling with them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edinabear Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 9 minutes ago, Wee Bully said: Interesting Username for an Alloa fan Whys that even relevant? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Bully Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 Just now, edinabear said: Whys that even relevant? "divisive SNP". Username ending in "Bear". You do the math. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edinabear Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 12 minutes ago, virginton said: It's not really tbh; the place is crawling with them. Crawling with what exactly? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 (edited) 55 minutes ago, mjw said: Go back to the first page of the 2015 GE thread and check some of the predictions on there. 6-12 SNP seats was the general feeling. It didn't quite work out that way and it even ruined at least one poster. Difference is the SNP were polling 40% + of he vote at that time. The Tory average is 28% and they're gaining in places where they already have a strong showing and have a chance to wins seats (borders, North East, Perth, Angus) and are taking votes from labour where the SNP have absolutely huge majorities. The Tories might run the SNP close and will definitely pinch a few 'unexpected' second places, but I just can't see where the 15 seats are coming from. Edited May 15, 2017 by Kyle 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 Crawling with what exactly? I believe he was referring to servile ***s 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 20 minutes ago, jupe1407 said: I believe he was referring to servile ***s worth a greenie 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted May 15, 2017 Share Posted May 15, 2017 Difference is the SNP were polling 40% + of he vote at that time. The Tory average is 28% and they're gaining in places where they already have a strong showing and have a chance to wins seats (borders, North East, Perth, Angus) and are taking votes from labour where the SNP have absolutely huge majorities. The Tories might run the SNP close and will definitely pinch a few 'unexpected' second places, but I just can't see where the 15 seats are coming from. I've worded that badly.The fact that some of the SNP majorities broke the BBC's swingometer and that the Union Jack parties are fighting over the same votes I can't either. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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