Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Boo Khaki]

That Gif never fails to buckle me 

[tirso]

10 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

This. The Polls showing an outright SNP majority are pretty optimistic imo. I'd be happy to see the Greens pick up extra seats and Alba/Galloway's gammon parties achieve nothing. 

haha. i should have added, f knows where it takes us!

i think the offer of three parties gives the pro-yes parties as a whole a higher possibility of taking over 50%.  I just happen to think it'll fall just short but provide a seat majority.  but who knows.

[vikingTON]

NB: The SNP got 6 constituency seats and 0 list seats in Lothian in 2016 - losing three incumbents. If that is converted into 9/9 then that's the majority right there. 

Similarly the SNP got zero list seats from the West of Scotland, Mid Scotland and the North East so those three seats would also be unambiguous gains with no impact on the list. 

Gaining East Lothian could reduce the South list so is less valuable a prize. I'm not convinced that Scotland needs or would benefit from a spell of majority government, but the path for the SNP to achieve it is relatively straightforward and does not involve second votes anywhere in the Central Belt. 

Edited April 8, 2021 by vikingTON

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, Day of the Lords said:

This. The Polls showing an outright SNP majority are pretty optimistic imo. I'd be happy to see the Greens pick up extra seats and Alba/Galloway's gammon parties achieve nothing. 

The big benefit with an outright SNP majority will be the Tories not being able to spin any lines about what constitutes a pro-Independence majority.

We all know the Greens’ stance but the Tories will be more interested in smoke and mirrors and will be aided by the MSM.

In practical terms a minority government dependent on Green support is probably a better option.

 

[Saltire]

Scottish elections: Sturgeon's SNP set for majority but Salmond's Alba unlikely to get single seat - Sky News poll | Politics News | Sky News

[GordonS]

2 hours ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

Mental that the Lib Dem’s used to be part of the Government up here, and now they’re basically confined to about 4 seats that anyone notices them in.

And two of those seats arguably could be one, as Orkney and Shetland are really small. The only reason they'll hold North East Fife and presumably Edinburgh West is that they are unequivocally the not-SNP party in those constituencies. 

In many ways its sad, because they were a great Scottish institution. Charles Kennedy, Ming Campbell, Malcolm Bruce, Jim Wallace, David Steel, John Thurso, Ross Finnie - they were grown-ups and you knew what they stood for. In the Highlands they were drawn from the Episcopalian tradition. But 2010 killed them, they sold their souls to the Tories for nothing more than the trinkets of power. Now they seem like politicians from another time and their party is almost exclusively southern English. 

[Kejan]

One consistently thing in the polls we are seeing is the Tory vote shipping, and fingers crossed it does to some of those polls number e.g that Sky one would be magical 20% plus 17% or so on the list. They'll probably do better than that, but really seeing them getting a shoeing would be ootstanding. 

I think an SNP majority is a bit too optimistic. The polls overstated their support in 2016 and 2017, but then again in 2019 they seemed to overperform - most polls had them on around 41-42% and they received 45% in the election. So, there's definitely a shy SNP factor of 5% - that can go either way.

If the SNP could win only one constituency from a current unionist MSP, I'd go for the Cole Hamilton one. Even ahead of that Aberdeen West oddball, Jackie Baillie, heck even gobshite Jackson Carlaw. ACH losing his seat and seeing his count would be almost as epic as Murphy or Swinson losing theirs. 

Havering on here, but at the state of things the now, I'd say SNP on about similar to what they are on ; Tories down about 6-10 seats depending on their night ; Labour gain 3-4 seats ; Greens up 2-3 seats ; Lib Dems possibly up 1-2 and Alba, if they win a seat, it'll be 1-2 max.

Edited April 8, 2021 by Kejan

[John Lambies Doos]

One consistently thing in the polls we are seeing is the Tory vote shipping, and fingers crossed it does to some of those polls number e.g that Sky one would be magical 20% plus 17% or so on the list. They'll probably do better than that, but really seeing them getting a shoeing would be ootstanding. 
I think an SNP majority is a bit too optimistic. The polls overstated their support in 2016 and 2017, but then again in 2019 they seemed to overperform - most polls had them on around 41-42% and they received 45% in the election. So, there's definitely a shy SNP factor of 5% - that can go either way.
If the SNP could win only one constituency from a current unionist MSP, I'd go for the Cole Hamilton one. Even ahead of that Aberdeen West oddball, Jackie Baillie, heck even gobshite Jackson Carlaw. ACH losing his seat and seeing his count would be almost as epic as Murphy or Swinson losing theirs. 
Havering on here, but at the state of things the now, I'd say SNP on about similar to what they are on ; Tories down about 6-10 seats depending on their night ; Labour gain 3-4 seats ; Greens up 2-3 seats ; Lib Dems possibly up 1-2 and Alba, if they win a seat, it'll be 1-2 max.

Really think you are being way to pessimistic here. With the country starting to open up,plus news the Euros are coming etc I expect the SNP to handily get a majority

[Highland Capital]

4 hours ago, virginton said:

NB: The SNP got 6 constituency seats and 0 list seats in Lothian in 2016 - losing three incumbents. If that is converted into 9/9 then that's the majority right there. 

Similarly the SNP got zero list seats from the West of Scotland, Mid Scotland and the North East so those three seats would also be unambiguous gains with no impact on the list. 

Gaining East Lothian could reduce the South list so is less valuable a prize. I'm not convinced that Scotland needs or would benefit from a spell of majority government, but the path for the SNP to achieve it is relatively straightforward and does not involve second votes anywhere in the Central Belt. 

The new tactic from SNP members when folk question them on this seems to be along the lines of 'but when we had a majority it was done with list seats' and it's starting to do my head in.  Polls can be wrong...but they won't be *that* wrong.  The chances of the SNP hoovering up list seats in regions aside from H&I and the South are miniscule.  

And anyway, the fact that the SNP don't have a majority right now isn't really down to the list at all (they only lost 1.2% of their list vote in 2016) - they lost their majority because they lost local seats, such as Edinburgh Western and NE Fife where they gotten beaten by the titanic political duo of... *checks notes* Alex Cole Hamilton and Willie Rennie!

Edited April 8, 2021 by Highland Capital

[Boo Khaki]

Just thank f**k the election is before the Euro group stages in that case 

[Merkie84]

How do we think turnout will be in the day?

Will covid affect it and therefore the final results?

 

[Boo Khaki]

Judging by the fact that nobody appears to be paying any attention whatsoever to restrictions, I'm struggling to imagine that come May people will suddenly become wary of leaving home to vote. Also, it's been quite strident throughout that the election was going ahead on May 6th regardless, so anyone who is a complete and utter Covid shiter has had plenty of time to organise themselves a postal vote, although I concede that there will be significant overlap in certain demographics between people who are 'I don't trust that knew fangled postal vote stuff' and those who assume they'll keel over dead from covid as soon as they cross their front doorstep, acting like it's some sort of deadly airborne biological weapon.

From a purely personal and selfish perspective, if Covid does indeed prevent coffin-dodgers from voting, then that's sure to be a net positive for the SNP 

Edited April 8, 2021 by Boo Khaki

[gmca]

51 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

Judging by the fact that nobody appears to be paying any attention whatsoever to restrictions, I'm struggling to imagine that come May people will suddenly become wary of leaving home to vote. Also, it's been quite strident throughout that the election was going ahead on May 6th regardless, so anyone who is a complete and utter Covid shiter has had plenty of time to organise themselves a postal vote, although I concede that there will be significant overlap in certain demographics between people who are 'I don't trust that knew fangled postal vote stuff' and those who assume they'll keel over dead from covid as soon as they cross their front doorstep, acting like it's some sort of deadly airborne biological weapon.

From a purely personal and selfish perspective, if Covid does indeed prevent coffin-dodgers from voting, then that's sure to be a net positive for the SNP 

I'm a shielding covid shiter, have arranged my postal vote, and am a coffin dodger.

So SNP/Greens for me  

[Boo Khaki]

1 hour ago, gmca said:

I'm a shielding covid shiter, have arranged my postal vote, and am a coffin dodger.

So SNP/Greens for me  

Good, can you ensure and put the wind right up any Tory-voting acquaintances, while simultaneously rubbishing the postal voting system as bent and corrupt in favour of the 'separatists' and 'that woman'? 

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, gmca said:

I'm a shielding covid shiter, have arranged my postal vote, and am a coffin dodger.

So SNP/Greens for me  

Please fill in your postal ballot as soon as it arrives and send it off.

[gmca]

1 hour ago, Boo Khaki said:

Good, can you ensure and put the wind right up any Tory-voting acquaintances, while simultaneously rubbishing the postal voting system as bent and corrupt in favour of the 'separatists' and 'that woman'? 

Surprisingly only know 1 eejit who votes Tory, and have been nipping at him for years. Am considering a phone call to report him as a danger to himself. 

[gmca]

39 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Please fill in your postal ballot as soon as it arrives and send it off.

I drag myself to the front door whenever I see the postie!

[Boo Khaki]

20 minutes ago, gmca said:

Surprisingly only know 1 eejit who votes Tory, and have been nipping at him for years. Am considering a phone call to report him as a danger to himself. 

When you get to a certain age, do you think you could dob all your Tory-voting pals in as senile, be taken seriously, and have SS cart them off to somewhere miles away from their polling station?

"Aye, Eck was wandering aboot the high street the other day in his pants, waving about a packet of lorne sausage and picking fights with trees"

Boom. Tory vote in Scotland collapses overnight.

[RH33]

6 hours ago, GordonS said:

And two of those seats arguably could be one, as Orkney and Shetland are really small. The only reason they'll hold North East Fife and presumably Edinburgh West is that they are unequivocally the not-SNP party in those constituencies. 

In many ways its sad, because they were a great Scottish institution. Charles Kennedy, Ming Campbell, Malcolm Bruce, Jim Wallace, David Steel, John Thurso, Ross Finnie - they were grown-ups and you knew what they stood for. In the Highlands they were drawn from the Episcopalian tradition. But 2010 killed them, they sold their souls to the Tories for nothing more than the trinkets of power. Now they seem like politicians from another time and their party is almost exclusively southern English. 

Dad was the local agent for Bob McLennan for thirty years. They both were utterly deviated by what Clegg did. Killed the lib Dems I'm Scotland as result.

[gmca]

2 hours ago, Boo Khaki said:

When you get to a certain age, do you think you could dob all your Tory-voting pals in as senile, be taken seriously, and have SS cart them off to somewhere miles away from their polling station?

"Aye, Eck was wandering aboot the high street the other day in his pants, waving about a packet of lorne sausage and picking fights with trees"

Boom. Tory vote in Scotland collapses overnight.

Wouldn't work. I stay in Stirling, so need something that might stand out a bit.