Catalonia

[Booker-T]

over 46% of the Catalans that voted at the last election for the Catalan Parliament in 2015 voted for absolute independence parties. Those votes cannot be construed as anything but opting to leave Spain.

The rest on the other hand couldn't possibly be taken as support for "Spanish Unity" as those other parties have a lot of traditional working class support who still want independence.

There is of course a lot of I'm alright Jacks, Spanish immigrants and EU/South American workers who will support a united spain for obvious reasons but Catalan independence will happen, it's the circumstances, human cost and timeline that are unclear.

[welshbairn]

I don't want to be associated with the reply to my post quoted above.

Edited October 28, 2017 by welshbairn

[Savage Henry]

over 46% of the Catalans that voted at the last election for the Catalan Parliament in 2015 voted for absolute independence parties. Those votes cannot be construed as anything but opting to leave Spain.
The rest on the other hand couldn't possibly be taken as support for "Spanish Unity" as those other parties have a lot of traditional working class support who still want independence.
There is of course a lot of I'm alright Jacks, Spanish immigrants and EU/South American workers who will support a united spain for obvious reasons but Catalan independence will happen, it's the circumstances, human cost and timeline that are unclear.

Less analysis than confirmation bias. That’s how you want things to pan out. It may turn out that way, but you’ve loaded events to suit your preferred narrative. For one thing, a vote for a Catalan separatist party (or whatever name people prefer) is no more a mandate for independence than a vote for the SNP is a vote for Indy2. For another, the international system is deliberately stacked against minority nationalist movements. Look at the response to the Kurdish referendum, for example. And thirdly, economic institutions can, if they wish, utterly cripple the Catalan bubble.

The Spanish government is doing all it can to change facts, but there’s absolutely nothing inevitable about Catalan independence, especially when it is viewed as an end itself by its proponents.

[John Lambies Doos]

This is the issue. What about the people there who want to be part of Spain? Yes, the Spanish government behaved in an abhorrent fashion regarding the referendum. But there's no evidence from any vote that a majority of people want independence. The Spanish central government is the only group with the ability to defend the rights of what might be the majority of the people in Catalonia. This is a really shitty move by the separatists. Any decent person recognizes that changing political bonds which have existed for hundreds of years is a major deal to their friends and neighbors. It's not like other political questions. These things should be handled with care and respect for all views. Separatists have a responsibility to make sure their view is solidly in the majority before permanent action is taken. Otherwise they lose any moral high ground.

^ word salad

The world stopped and the brave sovereign republic of Catalonia got on.

[DrewDon]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Have to say the Catalan unionists look a right bunch of c***s.

I can't speak Spanish, but 'prisión' can't be a good thing. 

[welshbairn]

13 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

 

Less analysis than confirmation bias. That’s how you want things to pan out. It may turn out that way, but you’ve loaded events to suit your preferred narrative. For one thing, a vote for a Catalan separatist party (or whatever name people prefer) is no more a mandate for independence than a vote for the SNP is a vote for Indy2. For another, the international system is deliberately stacked against minority nationalist movements. Look at the response to the Kurdish referendum, for example. And thirdly, economic institutions can, if they wish, utterly cripple the Catalan bubble.

The Spanish government is doing all it can to change facts, but there’s absolutely nothing inevitable about Catalan independence, especially when it is viewed as an end itself by its proponents.
 

 

Best hope imo is Rajoy's minority government loses support from their partners over his madness and an national election is called, hopefully with a new government willing to return the powers to Catalonia that Rajoy took back through the constitutional courts. The constitution really needs rewriting, it was apparently C+P'd from German text and kept as ambiguous as possible to keep everyone happy, which means judges can interpret it as their politics dictate.

[Savage Henry]

Best hope imo is Rajoy's minority government loses support from their partners over his madness and an national election is called, hopefully with a new government willing to return the powers to Catalonia that Rajoy took back through the constitutional courts. The constitution really needs rewriting, it was apparently C+P'd from German text and kept as ambiguous as possible to keep everyone happy, which means judges can interpret it as their politics dictate.

There’s no doubt that this is a deep constitutional crisis for Spain, or that Rajoy looks increasingly incompetent. But I can’t help but feel Puigdemont has, like Barzani, massively overplayed his hand here.

[welshbairn]

Just now, Savage Henry said:

 

There’s no doubt that this is a deep constitutional crisis for Spain, or that Rajoy looks increasingly incompetent. But I can’t help but feel Puigdemont has, like Barzani, massively overplayed his hand here.

 

I think he wanted to call a quick election but was overruled by his colleagues. That would have been the way to go, Rajoy has called one anyway for December. UDI without a clear mandate gives everyone a party, but nothing else.

[Savage Henry]

I think he wanted to call a quick election but was overruled by his colleagues. That would have been the way to go, Rajoy has called one anyway for December. UDI without a clear mandate gives everyone a party, but nothing else.

I read a quite nuanced piece somewhere about how incrementalism dominates the Yes movement (as opposed to Radical Independence, who would call a referendum yesterday if they could), whereas the dominant voice in Si is their version of Wings et al. I’m not really au fait as to Puigdemont’s decision-making authority, to be honest.

It perhaps explains why the SNP (not withstanding the National) has been conspicuously quiet on this, and absolutely dead silent on Kurdistan.

[welshbairn]

15 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

 

I read a quite nuanced piece somewhere about how incrementalism dominates the Yes movement (as opposed to Radical Independence, who would call a referendum yesterday if they could), whereas the dominant voice in Si is their version of Wings et al. I’m not really au fait as to Puigdemont’s decision-making authority, to be honest.

It perhaps explains why the SNP (not withstanding the National) has been conspicuously quiet on this, and absolutely dead silent on Kurdistan.

 

Read somewhere that the arguments about calling the referendum within Kurdistan got close to civil war.

[Savage Henry]

Read somewhere that the arguments about calling the referendum within Kurdistan got close to civil war.

It’s a fascinating case study in tribal (literally and figuratively) politics. The divide between Kurds was shown up pre and post vote but the result was uniform. Civil war is stretching a point, but certainly the PUK and KDP have never been more polarised, and because they have traditional city basis (Slemani and Erbil respectively), the land has also become split. Add on top of that the Baghdad land grab to 2003 boundaries, the place is all over the shop at the moment.

Speculation is that Barzani is out on his ear, and has resigned in a letter to parliament.

[TonMan]

24 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

 

I read a quite nuanced piece somewhere about how incrementalism dominates the Yes movement (as opposed to Radical Independence, who would call a referendum yesterday if they could), whereas the dominant voice in Si is their version of Wings et al. I’m not really au fait as to Puigdemont’s decision-making authority, to be honest.

It perhaps explains why the SNP (not withstanding the National) has been conspicuously quiet on this, and absolutely dead silent on Kurdistan.

 

I wonder if the differing circumstances in regards to us being allowed to have a referendum has perhaps influenced that. Catalonia have been denied any hope of one time and time again which no doubt has fueled the fire and led to more and more people thinking they're being oppressed by the Spanish government. Which is a fair conclusion to reach after the scenes back at the start of the month.

By contrast in Scotland we were allowed a referendum which was held fairly with a reasonable standard of debate. Naturally there were some issues with the media etc, but on the whole it'd be hard to argue the UK government were oppressing us at all when they gave us a fair and open chance to vote on our future. Any radical group trying to instigate a referendum would be shunned due to the fact we've literally just had one a few years back. Events post-Brexit do help the argument for holding another one, but no matter what happens within the UK unionists can naturally fall back on us being allowed to have our own choice. Whereas in Catalonia pro-independence voices can of course say that's not been the case and that Spain haven't been willing to listen to them at all.

[Savage Henry]

I wonder if the differing circumstances in regards to us being allowed to have a referendum has perhaps influenced that. Catalonia have been denied any hope of one time and time again which no doubt has fueled the fire and led to more and more people thinking they're being oppressed by the Spanish government. Which is a fair conclusion to reach after the scenes back at the start of the month.
By contrast in Scotland we were allowed a referendum which was held fairly with a reasonable standard of debate. Naturally there were some issues with the media etc, but on the whole it'd be hard to argue the UK government were oppressing us at all when they gave us a fair and open chance to vote on our future. Any radical group trying to instigate a referendum would be shunned due to the fact we've literally just had one a few years back. Events post-Brexit do help the argument for holding another one, but no matter what happens within the UK unionists can naturally fall back on us being allowed to have our own choice. Whereas in Catalonia pro-independence voices can of course say that's not been the case and that Spain haven't been willing to listen to them at all.

That seems fair. The historical contexts of the two movements are markedly different. I’m not entirely sure how much the Catalan movement has been oppressed (relative to central and Eastern Europe, say) but the Spanish government did their utmost to give the impression that it was. I really don’t know enough about the pre and post Franco separatist movement to comment any deeper than that.

[TheProgressiveLiberal]

12 hours ago, Booker-T said:

over 46% of the Catalans that voted at the last election for the Catalan Parliament in 2015 voted for absolute independence parties. Those votes cannot be construed as anything but opting to leave Spain.

The rest on the other hand couldn't possibly be taken as support for "Spanish Unity" as those other parties have a lot of traditional working class support who still want independence.

There is of course a lot of I'm alright Jacks, Spanish immigrants and EU/South American workers who will support a united spain for obvious reasons but Catalan independence will happen, it's the circumstances, human cost and timeline that are unclear.

 

I don't know. 

A local election for a regional government is going to have a different electorate than a referendum on breaking up the country I'd assume. 

I can't say what the parties stand for in Spain, but I'd imagine at the margins there are "Unionists" who voted for "separatist parties." As you say, the separatists earned 46% of the vote. A few % at the margins takes that from within shooting distance of independence to a long shot.

 

[TheProgressiveLiberal]

10 hours ago, Bishoptonbankie said:

Im talking about the images of the people at george square giving them not saying every no voter was.

Think he was talking about the formatting of the quote making it look like what I had to say was part of his quote. 

[GTG_03]

BBC desperately reporting the thousands of people on the streets for Spanish unity. Not a patch on the millions that marched for independence.
Is it really so hard to be unbiased on this?
No wonder I, and thousands of others don't pay the tv licence.

[bob the tank]

BBC desperately reporting the thousands of people on the streets for Spanish unity. Not a patch on the millions that marched for independence.
Is it really so hard to be unbiased on this?
No wonder I, and thousands of others don't pay the tv licence.

On the BBC news at 9am it said there "may" be a pro Spain unity march, as if the the bbc was desperate for it to take place.

[Antlion]

5 minutes ago, bob the tank said:

 

On the BBC news at 9am it said there "may" be a pro Spain unity march, as if the the bbc was desperate for it to take place.

 

"We're expecting 100,000 people."

When it was the dreaded separatists on the streets, it was "a few thousand". 

[Hillonearth]

2 hours ago, GTG_03 said:

BBC desperately reporting the thousands of people on the streets for Spanish unity. Not a patch on the millions that marched for independence.
Is it really so hard to be unbiased on this?
No wonder I, and thousands of others don't pay the tv licence.

It was just on BBC News 24 there - the shot was cropped right in, making it look as if there was a tightly-packed crowd, but they sold the jerseys  somewhat by zooming out and revealing the crowd was in the hundreds. Not quite the six or seven pro-Union dafties in George Square, but certainly not thousands so far anyway.

 

[doulikefish]

Catching up with motd,good to see Pep with the yellow ribbon on his top.Im surprised the media havent picked up on it

Also further to the complaints about the bbc.Heard some guy yesterday being interviewed saying that the "pro indy mps were actually stopped from voting and forced to leave the cataln parliament" totally unchallenged.Anybody that watched the coverage on friday will know that this is clearly untrue