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The Wee "Will-we-qualify-probably-not" Thread: Nations League Edition


forameus

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Just now, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

People clearly not understanding the difference between the team most likely to win and the chance of them winning. Have you just completely forgotten a draw exists? Deary me

I'll say again, Betfair have us as slight favourites ahead of Slovenia, with the draw the longest odds.

Deary me.

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I'll say again, Betfair have us as slight favourites ahead of Slovenia, with the draw the longest odds.
Deary me.


Betfair has Scotland's slight favs



Sigh.

This means that if one of the two teams were to win (and the match was not drawn) then Scotland are the marginaly more likely to win.

Had a look at oddschecker. The 'best' odds on Scotland is 7/4. This is a 36% chance of winning.

The 'worst' odds on Scotland winning is 6/4. This is a 40% chance of winning
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1 hour ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Depriving Slovakia of points that would elevate them in the table obviously counts.

Am I being whoooshed?

Your predicament actually happened in real life in the EOS Qualifying League a few years ago. There was 1 section of 6 clubs and 4 sections of 5 clubs, with the winners progressing to League Cup R1, and the runners-up and vitally best-3rd-place progressing to League Cup Preliminary. In order to decide that, the result of 3rd-place versus 6th-place was discounted in Section A.

Manager of club which finished 3rd in Section A (but not best-3rd overall) had a blog... he thought all results against 6th in Section A should be discounted when deciding the finishing positions in that section, before moving on to deciding best-3rd-place. Under this interpretation they'd coincidentally have finished 2nd instead!

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3 minutes ago, Alan Stubbs said:

7/4 = 50/50 aye?

Hope none of you live near a casino.

I never said the odds were 50/50 (which they're not), I just personally put a 50/50 shot on it.  I'd usually put Slovenia as slight favourites, but I think our contrasting situations put us slightly closer.  It's still a toss-up though, probably entirely depending on whether we decide to remember Tbilisi or not.

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Slovenia might be as good as out but they'll be wanting to keep that record of not conceding at their own place. There's also rankings to think about which stop any international game being truly meaningless.

Think it'll be very similar to Thursday night with us knocking on the door, but I've got a horrible feeling we won't get that 89th minute winner this time.

Considering we were all agreed we were out a year ago, we've done fucking brilliantly to get in this position. Frustrating though to think about if we weren't shitebags against Lithuania and Harry Kane never existed :lol:

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I'll say again, Betfair have us as slight favourites ahead of Slovenia, with the draw the longest odds.
Deary me.

I never said the odds were 50/50 (which they're not), I just personally put a 50/50 shot on it.  I'd usually put Slovenia as slight favourites, but I think our contrasting situations put us slightly closer.  It's still a toss-up though, probably entirely depending on whether we decide to remember Tbilisi or not.


You have literally no idea how odds convert to percentage chance of outcome. Please stop prentending otherwise
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Just now, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

You have literally no idea how odds convert to percentage chance of outcome. Please stop prentending otherwise

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, forameus said:

I never said the odds were 50/50 (which they're not), I just personally put a 50/50 shot on it.  I'd usually put Slovenia as slight favourites, but I think our contrasting situations put us slightly closer.  It's still a toss-up though, probably entirely depending on whether we decide to remember Tbilisi or not.

Hope that helps for you, pal.  I'm not talking about odds in that post, I'm talking about my own personal feeling on it.  Which I thought was pretty obvious, but if you'd like me to go and edit it to make it a little clearer, happy to go and do that for you.

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Hope that helps for you, pal.  I'm not talking about odds in that post, I'm talking about my own personal feeling on it.  Which I thought was pretty obvious, but if you'd like me to go and edit it to make it a little clearer, happy to go and do that for you.


You said 'Betfair have us as slight favourites' as your justification.


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Just now, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

You said 'Betfair have us as slight favourites' as your justification.

 

 

7 minutes ago, forameus said:

Hope that helps for you, pal.  I'm not talking about odds in that post, I'm talking about my own personal feeling on it.  Which I thought was pretty obvious, but if you'd like me to go and edit it to make it a little clearer, happy to go and do that for you.

"That post" being the one you quoted, which mentioned nothing about Betfair.  If you're going to go diving in, at least address the right post.

I'll make it nice and clear though.  I don't care what the bookies say.  I personally have the chances at around 50/50, for the reasons I've now stated twice.  That cool with you?

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