The Wee "Will-we-qualify-probably-not" Thread: Nations League Edition

[forameus]

Was away over the weekend following our glorious coronation as the greatest football side ever to take to the pitch, so a bit behind with this. Looks like most people have already filled in the blanks in other threads, but I'm a completionist.

Group 1

Pos	Team [  v t e  ]	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Promotion or relegation
1	Israel	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6[a]	Promotion to League B		—	2–1	2–0
2	Scotland	3	2	0	1	7	2	+5	6[a]			20 Nov	—	2–0
3	Albania	4	1	0	3	1	8	−7	3			1–0	0–4	—

 

The big 'un.  After our complete demolition of a gang of absolute jobbers, we're one game away from the playoffs and a home draw in the semi finals.  However, a draw still favours Israel, and will lead to them winning the group no matter the configuration.  Other than that, it's winner take all.  Nothing else really needing said.  And Albania are doon.  As they should be.

Group 2

Pos	Team [  v t e  ]	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Promotion or relegation
1	Finland (P)	6	4	0	2	5	3	+2	12	Promotion to League B		—	1–0	2–0	1–0
2	Hungary	6	3	1	2	9	6	+3	10			2–0	—	2–1	2–0
3	Greece	6	3	0	3	4	5	−1	9			1–0	1–0	—	0–1
4	Estonia (R)	6	1	1	4	4	8	−4	4	Relegation to League D		0–1	3–3	0–1	—

 

Finland confirmed their promotion, but they made heavy weather of it by conspiring to lose both of their final games.  Greece also shat the 2nd place bed by losing to relegated Estonia on final day.  That set of results means it looks likely they will miss out on a home draw, and potentially become an opponent for us.

Group 3

Pos	Team [  v t e  ]	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Promotion or relegation
1	Norway (P)	6	4	1	1	7	2	+5	13	Promotion to League B		—	1–0	2–0	1–0
2	Bulgaria	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11			1–0	—	2–1	1–1
3	Cyprus (Z)	6	1	2	3	5	9	−4	5	Possible relegation to League D[a]		0–2	1–1	—	2–1
4	Slovenia (R)	6	0	3	3	5	8	−3	3	Relegation to League D		1–1	1–2	1–1	—

 

All over in Group 3 too as Norway take the crown and the promotion.  The top two were locked on 9 points before this round of the games, and a pair of 1-1 draws in the penultimate step meant it was ultimately best result wins.  Bulgaria got a frustrating 1-1 draw with relegated Slovenia (remember when they papped us out of qualifying?  How they've fallen) while Norway managed the win against Cyprus.  A good promotion for them, and a shot at Euro 2020 in March.

Group 4

Pos	Team [  v t e  ]	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Promotion or relegation
1	Serbia (X)	5	3	2	0	7	3	+4	11	Promotion to League B		—	2–2	2–1	20 Nov
2	Romania (X)	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9			0–0	—	0–0	3–0
3	Montenegro (Y)	5	2	1	2	7	5	+2	7	Possible relegation to League D[a]		0–2	20 Nov	—	2–0
4	Lithuania (R)	5	0	0	5	2	12	−10	0	Relegation to League D		0–1	1–2	1–4	—

Still a game to go in the last group, but Serbia have it just about sewn up.  They face the super diddies of League C Lithuania knowing that a win will see them through.  Best I can tell though, a draw - combined with a win for Romania - will see them drop to 2nd thanks to away goals.  I would be amazed if that happened though.  

Relegation

Slovenia, Lithuania and Estonia are already confirmed relegated to the depths of the Nations League, and the mouthwatering prospect of ties with the likes of San Marino, Gibraltar and Malta.  The final side will be either Montenegro or Cyprus.  Anything better than a 2-0 defeat for the former should see the latter get relegated.

Playoffs

So both Norway and Finland are already in the playoffs, and they will be joined by either Romania or Serbia and either Israel or Scotland.  In terms of who gets a home draw, it's not too complex a picture.  If we win, we're at home in the semi final.  If Israel win by at least two goals, they are also at home.  Finland are definitely going to be away from home.  Serbia are also guaranteed a home draw should they beat Lithuania.  So at this stage, the most likely breakdown appears to be... Talking shiiiiiite.  Serbia's game is against Lithuania, so they're done in terms of this table.  Whoever goes through between Serbia and Romania is likely going to be away from home.  The winner of our group will probably be at home with a win (us definitely, Israel maybe)

Scotland/Israel
Norway
---------------
Serbia/Romania
Finland

That is assuming there is a clear winner in our group.  A draw would see Norway take our place.  So basically looking at a one-off shot against either Norway or Finland at Hampden, then Serbia (or whatever other one we didn't play in the semi) in the final.  Winnable.

Seeding

I believe that our seedings for the qualifying next year will purely be decided by being ranked against other sides in League C.  In which case...

Rnk	Grp	Team [  v t e  ]	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
25	C3	Norway	4	3	0	1	5	1	+4	9
26	C4	Serbia	4	2	2	0	6	3	+3	8
27	C1	Israel	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
28	C2	Finland	4	2	0	2	3	3	0	6
29	C3	Bulgaria	4	2	1	1	4	3	+1	7
30	C1	Scotland	3	2	0	1	7	2	+5	6
31	C2	Hungary	4	2	0	2	4	3	+1	6
32	C4	Romania	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
33	C2	Greece	4	2	0	2	3	4	−1	6
34	C1	Albania	4	1	0	3	1	8	−7	3
35	C4	Montenegro	3	0	1	2	1	4	−3	1
36	C3	Cyprus	4	0	1	3	2	7	−5	1
37	C2	Estonia	6	1	1	4	4	8	−4	4
38	C3	Slovenia	6	0	3	3	5	8	−3	3
39	C4	Lithuania	5	0	0	5	2	12	−10	0

The rules for the above are on Wikipedia, but basically it's a ranking of all results against sides that didn't finish bottom, grouped by where you finished in the group.  Basically the group winners will all be guaranteed to be in pot 3.  I believe the top two in that second group (29th and 30th) will also get a spot.  So I think that we're basically only going to miss out on pot 3 if we get an absolutely biblical pumping tonight.  Romania can pick up another three points, but they'd need a similarly heavy win to overhaul the goal difference.  Obviously a win for us means we're in the playoff, with a home draw, and guaranteed pot 3 next year.  All in all, a good couple of months work (with a few diversions).

[Estragon]

By my reckoning, the only way for us not to get top seeded spot was if Norway gave Cyprus an absolute hiding last night.

If we win by any score tonight, we'd have a semi final - and potentially the playoff final at Hampden.

[forameus]

3 minutes ago, Estragon said:

By my reckoning, the only way for us not to get top seeded spot was if Norway gave Cyprus an absolute hiding last night.

If we win by any score tonight, we'd have a semi final - and potentially the playoff final at Hampden.

How does the final draw work?  Wiki has it as a draw in November 2019 amongst the semi finalists.  So does that mean that potentially the host will be one of the sides already out?  Bit of a shiter for all involved if, say, Norway get to be hosts, but they're already out, and two rival nations descend on a tiny stadium

[Coooombe]

8 minutes ago, forameus said:

How does the final draw work?  Wiki has it as a draw in November 2019 amongst the semi finalists.  So does that mean that potentially the host will be one of the sides already out?  Bit of a shiter for all involved if, say, Norway get to be hosts, but they're already out, and two rival nations descend on a tiny stadium

I'd assume they will decide a tie to be the home tie. So for example the fixtures are A: Scotland v Finland and B: Norway v Serbia, they'd allocate the final to either the winner of tie A or tie B. 

[forameus]

1 minute ago, Coooombe said:

I'd assume they will decide a tie to be the home tie. So for example the fixtures are A: Scotland v Finland and B: Norway v Serbia, they'd allocate the final to either the winner of tie A or tie B. 

That would make far more sense.  Ignore me, I'm so very tired.

[Estragon]

30 minutes ago, Coooombe said:

I'd assume they will decide a tie to be the home tie. So for example the fixtures are A: Scotland v Finland and B: Norway v Serbia, they'd allocate the final to either the winner of tie A or tie B. 

I think it actually reverts to the overall nations league ranking - so let's say Finland (4th) and Serbia (3rd) win their respective semis then the final is in Belgrade.

[Coooombe]

2 minutes ago, Estragon said:

I think it actually reverts to the overall nations league ranking - so let's say Finland (4th) and Serbia (3rd) win their respective semis then the final is in Belgrade.

So if we win tonight then we'd be guaranteed a home semi and final (if we made it)? Happy days. 

[Estragon]

10 minutes ago, Coooombe said:

So if we win tonight then we'd be guaranteed a home semi and final (if we made it)? Happy days. 

I think so.  It would certainly fit in with my overarching suspicion that this entire competition is just an elaborate scheme hatched by UEFA to get Scotland back at a major championship.

[charger29]

38 minutes ago, Estragon said:

I think it actually reverts to the overall nations league ranking - so let's say Finland (4th) and Serbia (3rd) win their respective semis then the final is in Belgrade.

The uefa video explains it differently.

https://youtu.be/slqy1rjQJaY

Fast forward to around 1:15.

Some eejit thought it would be a good idea to seed the semi's but not the final. Either seed everything or seed nothing. It's just daft to do half and half.

[Estragon]

1 hour ago, Coooombe said:

I'd assume they will decide a tie to be the home tie. So for example the fixtures are A: Scotland v Finland and B: Norway v Serbia, they'd allocate the final to either the winner of tie A or tie B. 

Seems you were right - final venue is randomly drawn.

[DA Baracus]

3 hours ago, forameus said:

Was away over the weekend following our glorious coronation as the greatest football side ever to take to the pitch, so a bit behind with this. Looks like most people have already filled in the blanks in other threads, but I'm a completionist.

Group 1

Pos	Team [  v t e  ]	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Promotion or relegation
1	Israel	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6[a]	Promotion to League B		—	2–1	2–0
2	Scotland	3	2	0	1	7	2	+5	6[a]			20 Nov	—	2–0
3	Albania	4	1	0	3	1	8	−7	3			1–0	0–4	—

 

The big 'un.  After our complete demolition of a gang of absolute jobbers, we're one game away from the playoffs and a home draw in the semi finals.  However, a draw still favours Israel, and will lead to them winning the group no matter the configuration.  Other than that, it's winner take all.  Nothing else really needing said.  And Albania are doon.  As they should be.

 

No, they've stayed up. Cyprus have went down. Bottom of the three 4 team groups went down then the worst ranked 3rd placed team went down, which was Cyprus, who only managed 1 point when you took away their points against the bottom team in their group (Slovenia).

[DA Baracus]

Ranking of third-placed teams[edit]

Pos	Grp	Team [  v t e  ]	Pld	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Relegation
1	C2	Greece (X, Z)	4	2	0	2	3	4	−1	6
2	C1	Albania (X, Z)	4	1	0	3	1	8	−7	3
3	C4	Montenegro	3	0	1	2	1	4	−3	1
4	C3	Cyprus (Z)	4	0	1	3	2	7	−5	1	Relegation to League D

Updated to match(es) played on 19 November 2018. Source: UEFA
Rules for classification: Counting only matches against teams ranked first and second in the group, 1) Points; 2) Goal difference; 3) Goals scored; 4) Away goals scored; 5) Wins; 6) Away wins; 7) Disciplinary points; 8 UEFA national team coefficient.
(X) Cannot be relegated; (Z) Guaranteed third place.

[Coooombe]

How does the seeding work for the next nations league - if we win the group will we then be bottom seeds for League B or is the seeding done by some other mechanism?

[DA Baracus]

1 minute ago, Coooombe said:

How does the seeding work for the next nations league - if we win the group will we then be bottom seeds for League B or is the seeding done by some other mechanism?

Goes on UEFA co-efficient after each World Cup.

[Pie Of The Month]

If we were to make it and the other teams stay as they are it's going to be fun trying to get to either Norway or Serbia and get tickets sorted at 3 days notice for the final if that tie was picked at the home side for the final.

[Gordopolis]

1 hour ago, Coooombe said:

So if we win tonight then we'd be guaranteed a home semi and final (if we made it)? Happy days. 

1 hour ago, Estragon said:

I think so.  It would certainly fit in with my overarching suspicion that this entire competition is just an elaborate scheme hatched by UEFA to get Scotland back at a major championship.

Yas!! Mon UEFA!!! 

1 hour ago, Estragon said:

Seems you were right - final venue is randomly drawn.

F*cking BOOOOOOOOOOOO! 

 

 

[Coooombe]

Goes on UEFA co-efficient after each World Cup.

Is the Nations League not every 2 years? I'm assuming it will then use the UEFA coefficient after the euros?

[forameus]

20 minutes ago, DA Baracus said:

No, they've stayed up. Cyprus have went down. Bottom of the three 4 team groups went down then the worst ranked 3rd placed team went down, which was Cyprus, who only managed 1 point when you took away their points against the bottom team in their group (Slovenia).

I've had a fucking mare here!  Yes, Albania stay up thanks to the win against Israel.  Perk of a 3 team group.

[DA Baracus]

1 minute ago, Coooombe said:

19 minutes ago, DA Baracus said:

Goes on UEFA co-efficient after each World Cup.

Is the Nations League not every 2 years? I'm assuming it will then use the UEFA coefficient after the euros?

Hmm. Not sure now!

[DA Baracus]

2 minutes ago, forameus said:

I've had a fucking mare here!  Yes, Albania stay up thanks to the win against Israel.  Perk of a 3 team group.

Just as well since Turkey were relegated and they could potentially have been in the same group.