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The Wee "Will-we-qualify-probably-not" Thread: Nations League Edition

forameus

By forameus
in Tartan Army Ramblings

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BFTD

BFTD

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, H Wragg said:

This is correct.

I’m fairly sure that if the Uruguay v South Korea game had ended 0-0 we were drawing lots with Austria to see which one of us progressed to the second stage.

Edit - Yes. We had an identical record to Austria and Uruguay overtook us both with their goal.

I'd rather that, actually. Imagine going home after losing a coin toss. That would've just cemented our mindset as being perennially unlucky.

2 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

As was the bit about Argentina drawing their entire way to the final by winning on penalties.  They beat Brazil 1-0.

No, I meant that it seemed like their plan - in the knock-out stages, they really did play like they knew they were dugshite and needed to get to penalties to have a chance. Every game they were involved in was absolute torture. Absolutely delighted when the Germans managed to scrape past them in the end.

Beautiful to have seen that side get seven bells knocked out of them by Cameroon, too, not to mention our wee win  :D

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Alert Mongoose

Alert Mongoose

Posted
Posted
There's still a slim chance we could be seeded, we'll find out tomorrow with the Montenegro and Northern Ireland results.
Slovakia would probably be unseeded due to losing ranking points in their defeat against us.
Think it's impossible for Slovenia to qualify if they finish 2nd, as they'll only have 11 points and no other 2nd place can be lower than 12 points.


So what your is that is another possibility to throw into the mix is that we could become seeded then get an un-seeded Italy in the playoffs?
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Dunning1874

Dunning1874

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, DAVIDB69 said:

Bad stats since 2009 away top 100 countries won one game out of 14

Macedonia were in the top 100 when we beat them away as well as Croatia.

Our away record leaves a lot to be desired but there's no point dwelling on it now.

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BFTD

BFTD

Posted
Posted

Looking at Italy 1990 again, it was actually almost the opposite of what I remember -after the Sweden game, we were looking for two of five results to go our way,  but none of them really did.

Losing 1-0 to Brazil was enough to drop us level with Austria after their 2-1 win over the US, but we also needed Romania v Argentina to end as a hiding for someone, the Germans needed to give Colombia a kicking (and surprisingly didn't), Uruguay (b*****ds) had to not beat South Korea, or we needed a winner in the Eire v Netherlands match.

(I'll shut up about this now)

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Donathan

Donathan

Posted
Posted
Macedonia were in the top 100 when we beat them away as well as Croatia.
Our away record leaves a lot to be desired but there's no point dwelling on it now.


We didn’t win in Macedonia. They beat us 1-0 thanks to a very early goal
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Monkey Tennis

Monkey Tennis

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, BigFatTabbyDave said:

Looking at Italy 1990 again, it was actually almost the opposite of what I remember -after the Sweden game, we were looking for two of five results to go our way,  but none of them really did.

Losing 1-0 to Brazil was enough to drop us level with Austria after their 2-1 win over the US, but we also needed Romania v Argentina to end as a hiding for someone, the Germans needed to give Colombia a kicking (and surprisingly didn't), Uruguay (b*****ds) had to not beat South Korea, or we needed a winner in the Eire v Netherlands match.

(I'll shut up about this now)

Cheat!

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BFTD

BFTD

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Cheat!

It becomes necessary past a certain age.

I'm guessing that I'm about twenty years away from needing name tags on my clothes again  :(

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Lurkst

Lurkst

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BigFatTabbyDave said:

Looking at Italy 1990 again, it was actually almost the opposite of what I remember -after the Sweden game, we were looking for two of five results to go our way,  but none of them really did.

Losing 1-0 to Brazil was enough to drop us level with Austria after their 2-1 win over the US, but we also needed Romania v Argentina to end as a hiding for someone, the Germans needed to give Colombia a kicking (and surprisingly didn't), Uruguay (b*****ds) had to not beat South Korea, or we needed a winner in the Eire v Netherlands match.

(I'll shut up about this now)

IIRC we were going through instead of Uruguay if they hadn't scored.

The drawing of lots thing with Austria would only happen if the Dutch beat Ireland.

 

Edit.. had to check back and you're right enough. We'd still have needed a lot draw even if Uruguay hadn't scored.  Suddenly I'm not feeling so bad about it after all these years :)

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Monkey Tennis

Monkey Tennis

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Lurkst said:

IIRC we were going through instead of Uruguay if they hadn't scored.

The drawing of lots thing with Austria would only happen if the Dutch beat Ireland.

 

Edit.. had to check back and you're right enough. We'd still have needed a lot draw even if Uruguay hadn't scored.  Suddenly I'm not feeling so bad about it after all these years :)

Will people please stop this cheating?

I have more respect for those that get it wrong.

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DeeTillEhDeh

DeeTillEhDeh

Posted
Posted

ESPN have a good summary of the second place race:

 

"Greece have played all the games that count towards the calculation, and with Gibraltar left to play at home are effectively second. They have set the low bar at 13 points with a +4 goal difference.

 

The second place team in the Portugal/Switzerland group and Italy are the only nations currently guaranteed a playoff place -- though it is impossible for Sweden to finish second in their group and be the worst runners-up.

 

The table of current second place teams is as follows (final game in parentheses):

 

Portugal: 18 points -- (h-Switzerland)

Q-Italy: 14 (+3) -- (a-Albania)

Sweden: 13 (+10) -- (a-Netherlands)

Denmark, 13 (+7) -- (h-Romania)

Northern Ireland, 13 (+5) -- (a-Norway)

Greece: 13 (+4) -- (completed)

Wales, 11 (+2) -- (h-Republic of Ireland)

Croatia: 11 (+2) -- (a-Ukraine)

Scotland: 11 (-1) -- (a-Slovenia)

NB: bottom teams in Groups A and B could change

 

While Scotland are currently bottom, they will not be runners-up in the group if they do not beat Slovenia (as Slovakia, who have completed on 12 points, play Malta). 

 

If all the current second-placed teams win their remaining games, Greece will miss out. One of Greece's best hopes could be the Group I match between Ukraine and Croatia -- if that game finishes as a draw, then the worst group runners-up will have 12 points. And the same goes for Wales vs. Ireland, with a draw the maximum points would be 12 and send Greece through.

 

If Wales and Croatia both draw, with Croatia scoring one more goal, then they are guaranteed to have identical records for the worst runners-up and would separated by Fairplay. At present Wales have -17 and Croatia -13 (essentially Wales have received four more yellow cards to date). Thus, Wales would be out. Still level after Fairplay? The teams would draw lots. 

 

Denmark and Northern Ireland will only need a point from their final matches. Northern Ireland are most in danger if they lose away to Norway due to their goal difference. Denmark (and of course Sweden) effectively look safe.

 

These are the other teams that could yet finish second, and their current points tally:

 

Poland: 18 points

Switzerland: 21 

Iceland: 16*

France: 16 (+12)

Slovakia: 12 (+5)*

Serbia: 12 (+3)

Ukraine: 11 (+1)

Montenegro: 10 (+2)

Republic of Ireland: 10 (+1)

Netherlands: 10 (=)

Bosnia-Herzegovina: 8

*All games played that count toward second-place ranking; 

 

Bosnia have virtually no chance of making the playoffs even if they finish second."

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Brother Blades

Brother Blades

Posted
Posted

It would be fantastic to get an early lead to settle the nerves, it's too much to ask to get a two goal cushion, given the Slovenians home defensive record?
I guess the one thing that may be to our advantage is that our squad are coming off a great run (comparatively speaking) & we must be more up for this than Slovenia given the mathematics involved in them making the 2nd spot?
Agreed, we will either get Portugal in the play-offs or end up seeded and get an unseeded Italy!
C'mon boys, let's worry about the play-offs after a delicious win tonight.

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jamamafegan

jamamafegan

Posted
Posted

I’m not getting my hopes up. Setting myself up for another glorious failure. It’s the best way to avoid the bitter disappointment.

Let’s face it, Slovenia are a better side than us. We are very fortunate to be in this position. Gordon Strachan is still a wee ginger fud who thinks he is a funny man and Coldplay is still shite despite his influence in the last game.

That said, I’m more than willing to forget everything if we win this game tonight. WGS can make all the jokes in the world if pulls this out the of the bag.

Come on Scotland.

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QwaarJet

QwaarJet

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, jamamafegan said:

I’m not getting my hopes up. Setting myself up for another glorious failure. It’s the best way to avoid the bitter disappointment.

Let’s face it, Slovenia are a better side than us. We are very fortunate to be in this position. Gordon Strachan is still a wee ginger fud who thinks he is a funny man and Coldplay is still shite despite his influence in the last game.

That said, I’m more than willing to forget everything if we win this game tonight. WGS can make all the jokes in the world if pulls this out the of the bag.

Come on Scotland.

I'll give you England and Slovakia, but no way are Slovenia better than us. Yes they have Oblak, but apart from him, none of their players would start for us. And at Hampeden they were complete trash. If we can beat Slovakia, we can beat Slovenia, regardless of home or away.

I'm not saying we will win, but on paper, we absolutely should.

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Donathan

Donathan

Posted
Posted
I’m not getting my hopes up. Setting myself up for another glorious failure. It’s the best way to avoid the bitter disappointment.

Let’s face it, Slovenia are a better side than us. We are very fortunate to be in this position. Gordon Strachan is still a wee ginger fud who thinks he is a funny man and Coldplay is still shite despite his influence in the last game.

That said, I’m more than willing to forget everything if we win this game tonight. WGS can make all the jokes in the world if pulls this out the of the bag.

Come on Scotland.



Slovenia aren’t better than us. Slovakia probably are mainly because of Marek Hamšík but
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