Big Fifer Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 The fear definitely growing for this. Slovenia's defensive record is good so they'll most likely be happy to soak up any pressure we may or may not put on them as they know we need the win, and then try catch us on the break come 60/70 minutes when we're getting desperate for a goal. AHhhhhhhhhhhh this is shite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbetty Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 It's good really. If there was no pressure we'd already be out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forameus Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Well that wraps up the final fixtures of this round, before it all starts again tomorrow. Saints be praised, we've actually eliminated a lot of the uncertainty tonight, but I'll still give the updates, because I'm pure cool like that, and the groups are actually still very interesting as to who we could end up facing. Group A Sweden 8 - 0 Luxembourg Belarus 1 - 3 Netherlands Bulgaria 0 - 1 France On the face of it, the results mean one thing - the Netherlands are fucking shite. They've really fucked another campaign, and now they'll be playing for absolutely snookers in a match against Sweden. They need to win by 7 I think (6 would mean Sweden progress on goals scored, right?) which, let's face it, isn't happening. The other possibilities are more interesting... I know France drew with Luxembourg, but I had no idea how close it was at the top. Any dropped points for France against Belarus, and Sweden could nick it. Even a draw would be enough should France lose. That would see the French drop into the playoffs, and probably see a lot of unseeded nations in the playoffs shit themselves. Interesting to see what happens on Tuesday. Group B Switzerland 5 - 2 Hungary Andorra 0 - 2 Portugal Faroe Islands 0 - 0 Latvia Portugal did what they needed to do (eventually) but Switzerland's huge result against Hungary means it's all in their own hands. Simple for Portugal - win in Lisbon, and they top the group. Don't, and they go into the playoffs. I know which I'd rather have from a potential opponent perspective...both sides would be seeded should they get there. Group H Gibraltar 0 - 6 Estonia Cyprus 1 - 2 Greece Bosnia 3 - 4 Belgium What a remarkable game in Sarajevo...I had actually forgotten it was at 5pm and checked the score around the 70 minute mark on leaving the in-laws. When I saw it was 3-2, almost shat myself. Belgium were supposed to pump them! Then when I got home, 4-3 full time. Ooft. Greece will almost certainly finish 2nd now, but thanks to their final match being against Gibraltar, they are done in terms of their points total. 13 is their lot, which will be bettered by everyone (maybe). Other groups rejoice - we've found our diddy. Second Placed Sides Not great reading right now, but as I've said, Greece have played their eight games and are the first to set down a marker to beat. I think only Northern Ireland are in some trouble from Greece should they lose their final match heavily. We're bottom, but we've always known we need a win in our final game. A draw may be enough for us to finish 2nd (if Slovakia fail to beat Malta) but it won't be enough to overhaul Greece, or the Group I runners-up (Croatia play Ukraine, so worst case, they finish on 12 and beat us on goal difference), or the group D runners-up (same as Group I - a draw for Wales would push them ahead of us on goal difference). If we win, it doesn't matter what else happens, someone else will miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forameus Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Things to play for in tomorrow's games... Northern Ireland will secure their place in the playoffs with a point, or a 1-0 defeat. Anything more than that and Greece will finish above them in the 2nd placed table, and they may well miss out. Poland can qualify automatically with a point against Montenegro, regardless of other results Denmark will qualify for the playoffs with a point against Romania, regardless of other results (where they will likely be unseeded) Denmark could qualify automatically should Poland lose and they win (leaving Poland seeded in the playoffs) Scotland will qualify for the playoffs with a win (where we will be unseeded) Slovakia will qualify for the playoffs should they beat Malta, and Scotland don't beat Slovenia (unknown if they will be seeded, currently 19th in the world) Slovenia will qualify for the playoffs should they beat Scotland, and Slovakia drop points to Malta, and (I think) there are a sequence of results that see them not finish bottom of the 2nd placed table (that may also be out of their reach) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red23 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, harry94 said: Basically, if we'd just beaten everyone, we'd be through. Ffs Scotland. "We always do it the hard way" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 If we'd won at home to Lithuania, took a point in Slovakia, lost 1-0 at Wembley and held on to beat them at Hampden then a win tomorrow would put us top. Sliding doors IMO We got a last minute winner against Slovenia and Slovakia and a last min draw against Lithuania. We can't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Presume this refers to ROI? A draw in Norway guarantees play off spot for N Ireland. Yup. ROI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginaro Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 2 hours ago, jam20 said: Read an article saying if Denmark win their last game they will go above Italy in the rankings which would make Italy unseeded! If we can get a win, Portugal beat Switzerland, and denmark win then the seeding would look a lot nicer. This is true - Italy's draw against Macedonia cost them ranking points. 1 hour ago, forameus said: Scotland will qualify for the playoffs with a win (where we will be unseeded) Slovakia will qualify for the playoffs should they beat Malta, and Scotland don't beat Slovenia (unknown if they will be seeded, currently 19th in the world) Slovenia will qualify for the playoffs should they beat Scotland, and Slovakia drop points to Malta, and (I think) there are a sequence of results that see them not finish bottom of the 2nd placed table (that may also be out of their reach) There's still a slim chance we could be seeded, we'll find out tomorrow with the Montenegro and Northern Ireland results. Slovakia would probably be unseeded due to losing ranking points in their defeat against us. Think it's impossible for Slovenia to qualify if they finish 2nd, as they'll only have 11 points and no other 2nd place can be lower than 12 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Thanks everybody for quoting my post and explaining my own joke back to me four times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 27 minutes ago, Ginaro said: Think it's impossible for Slovenia to qualify if they finish 2nd, as they'll only have 11 points and no other 2nd place can be lower than 12 points. Bosnia-Herzegovina still can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H Wragg Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Things to play for in tomorrow's games... Northern Ireland will secure their place in the playoffs with a point, or a 1-0 defeat. Anything more than that and Greece will finish above them in the 2nd placed table, and they may well miss out. Poland can qualify automatically with a point against Montenegro, regardless of other results Denmark will qualify for the playoffs with a point against Romania, regardless of other results (where they will likely be unseeded) Denmark could qualify automatically should Poland lose and they win (leaving Poland seeded in the playoffs) Scotland will qualify for the playoffs with a win (where we will be unseeded) Slovakia will qualify for the playoffs should they beat Malta, and Scotland don't beat Slovenia (unknown if they will be seeded, currently 19th in the world) Slovenia will qualify for the playoffs should they beat Scotland, and Slovakia drop points to Malta, and (I think) there are a sequence of results that see them not finish bottom of the 2nd placed table (that may also be out of their reach) Is your Slovakia bit definitely accurate?As far as I can see their max points (excluding Malta) is 12. Greece are currently setting the benchmark on 13. If we were potentially going to miss out on 14 then surely the baw’s burst for them on 12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginaro Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 21 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said: Bosnia-Herzegovina still can. True. Though that would require both Greece to lose against Gibraltar, something no team has ever done in a competitive match, and Bosnia to draw with Estonia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holiday Song Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 6 hours ago, H Wragg said: Is your Slovakia bit definitely accurate? As far as I can see their max points (excluding Malta) is 12. Greece are currently setting the benchmark on 13. If we were potentially going to miss out on 14 then surely the baw’s burst for them on 12? Slovakia could as they would have 12 with a GD of +5. If either the Wales/Ireland or Croatia/Ukraine games were draws then Slovakia would be level on points with a better GD. They can make it with 12 points, we can't as our GD would be -1. So there is no way we can get into the playoffs with a draw. (On the assumption Greece beat Gibraltar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkst Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 7 hours ago, Ginaro said: True. Though that would require both Greece to lose against Gibraltar, something no team has ever done in a competitive match, and Bosnia to draw with Estonia. No, if Greece and Gibraltar draw and Bosnia beat Estonia, the Bosnians would finish 2nd in the group on 17 points. If Slovenia beat us and Slovakia don't beat Malta then depending on the final goal tally Slovenia could make it (Slovenia currently 1 goal better of than Bosnia in the runner up ranking) Fairly lengthy odds on that happening I'd wager. If the Slovenians had just hung on for a few more seconds at Wembley it would've been much better for them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H Wragg Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 Slovakia could as they would have 12 with a GD of +5. If either the Wales/Ireland or Croatia/Ukraine games were draws then Slovakia would be level on points with a better GD. They can make it with 12 points, we can't as our GD would be -1. So there is no way we can get into the playoffs with a draw. (On the assumption Greece beat Gibraltar) Aye but forameus seems to be saying Slovakia will make the play offs simply by beating Malta and us not beating Slovenia. It’s not criticism, by the way, his stuff is excellent. I was just confused in case I was missing something obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HibeeJibee Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 35 minutes ago, Ginaro said: True. Though that would require both Greece to lose against Gibraltar, something no team has ever done in a competitive match, and Bosnia to draw with Estonia. It would require Greece to fail to beat Gibraltar; and Bosnia-Herzegovina to beat Estonia, thereby finishing 2nd but with only 17pts (thus 11pts). Unlikely - but then again Greece did lose home-and-away to Faroe Islands last campaign... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 12 hours ago, BigFatTabbyDave said: Thank f**k that element is out of the way. All this "if so-and so beat thingmebob" stuff was reminding me of Italia 90, where (IIRC) we ended up needing five results to go our way in order to make it past the group stage. And all but the last one did. Apologies if I'm maligning them incorrectly, but f**k Uruguay That seemed to be Argentina's plan at the same tournament. TBF, it did get them at least four games further than they deserved. Your recall of Italia 90 is somewhat dodgy. Still too accurate to land you a gig on 'Off the Ball' mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Monkey Tennis said: Your recall of Italia 90 is somewhat dodgy. Still too accurate to land you a gig on 'Off the Ball' mind. You sure? What bit have I got wrong? I'm sure I can remember that, if we lost to Brazil (which seemed inevitable), we were reliant on a bunch of other results to get through as one of the best third-place sides. It all went swimmingly until Uruguay managed to scaff a last-minute 1-0 win against a poor South Korea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H Wragg Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 You sure? What bit have I got wrong? I'm sure I can remember that, if we lost to Brazil (which seemed inevitable), we were reliant on a bunch of other results to get through as one of the best third-place sides. It all went swimmingly until Uruguay managed to scaff a last-minute 1-0 win against a poor South Korea. This is correct. I’m fairly sure that if the Uruguay v South Korea game had ended 0-0 we were drawing lots with Austria to see which one of us progressed to the second stage. Edit - Yes. We had an identical record to Austria and Uruguay overtook us both with their goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkey Tennis Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, BigFatTabbyDave said: You sure? What bit have I got wrong? I'm sure I can remember that, if we lost to Brazil (which seemed inevitable), we were reliant on a bunch of other results to get through as one of the best third-place sides. It all went swimmingly until Uruguay managed to scaff a last-minute 1-0 win against a poor South Korea. The bit about us being reliant on five different things falling into place was wrong I think. As was the bit about Argentina drawing their entire way to the final by winning on penalties. They beat Brazil 1-0. I remember the key moment in that Uruguay / South Korea game though. The match wasn't screened live, but they went over just for the last thirty seconds as Uruguay had a free kick out wide. The goal seemed somehow inevitable. Did it not come after we'd already lost to Brazil? I could look It up, but like revision, I regard that as cheating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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