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The Wee "Will-we-qualify-probably-not" Thread: Nations League Edition


forameus

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1 minute ago, charger29 said:

There is no Uefa co-efficient any more (except as a tiebreaker between teams on same points).

It goes by overall ranking in the nations league.  The competition is every two years.

Ok, thanks. Makes sense.

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1 hour ago, charger29 said:

Some eejit thought it would be a good idea to seed the semi's but not the final. Either seed everything or seed nothing. It's just daft to do half and half.

It's to help with the scheduling of travel, visas etc. The teams involved the semis are known well in advance, so it's easy to seed them so that the higher placed side gets home advantage. Semi-final A has 1v4 and semi-final B has 2v3.

However, if you seed the final then you have two options:

1) The winner of semi-final A (1v4) is given home advantage in advance, since this rewards the Team 1. However, if Team 4 win, then they are given home advantage despite being lower seeded than their opponents.

2) The highest ranked team in the final is seeded (ie 1v2, 1v3, 2v4 or 3v4). However, this leaves three possible venues for the final, with no fixed plan until both semi-finals are played. Teams 2 and 3 won't know if they're home or away if they win.

By drawing the final, you avoid the "unfairness" of scenario 1, since everyone is treated equally, and avoid the logistical nightmare of scenario 2. There are only two possible venues for the final, and only the two teams in the away semi-finals need to worry about making any travel arrangements.

 

 

19 minutes ago, DA Baracus said:

Goes on UEFA co-efficient after each World Cup.

I don't think this is the case - as far as I know, the rankings are based on performance in the previous Nations League tournament.

 

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6 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

It's to help with the scheduling of travel, visas etc. The teams involved the semis are known well in advance, so it's easy to seed them so that the higher placed side gets home advantage. Semi-final A has 1v4 and semi-final B has 2v3.

However, if you seed the final then you have two options:

1) The winner of semi-final A (1v4) is given home advantage in advance, since this rewards the Team 1. However, if Team 4 win, then they are given home advantage despite being lower seeded than their opponents.

2) The highest ranked team in the final is seeded (ie 1v2, 1v3, 2v4 or 3v4). However, this leaves three possible venues for the final, with no fixed plan until both semi-finals are played. Teams 2 and 3 won't know if they're home or away if they win.

By drawing the final, you avoid the "unfairness" of scenario 1, since everyone is treated equally, and avoid the logistical nightmare of scenario 2. There are only two possible venues for the final, and only the two teams in the away semi-finals need to worry about making any travel arrangements.

Cannae wait to see the SFA book all their travel before being reminded that they're either a) out of the tournament or b) already playing at home.

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4 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

It's to help with the scheduling of travel, visas etc. The teams involved the semis are known well in advance, so it's easy to seed them so that the higher placed side gets home advantage. Semi-final A has 1v4 and semi-final B has 2v3.

By drawing the final, you avoid the "unfairness" of scenario 1, since everyone is treated equally, and avoid the logistical nightmare of scenario 2. There are only two possible venues for the final, and only the two teams in the away semi-finals need to worry about making any travel arrangements.

Yeah, it makes sense with the odd NL setup and lack of dates to space internationals matches out.

I suspect if Scotland didn't have the prospect of being a #1 seed, I'd be delighted with the current setup.

7 minutes ago, DA Baracus said:

Ok, thanks. Makes sense.

 

I can see a bit of a yo-yo effect happening for Scotland with this draw format.

Promoted from C, then play some good teams in B, relegated from B...

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19 minutes ago, charger29 said:

Yeah, it makes sense with the odd NL setup and lack of dates to space internationals matches out.

I suspect if Scotland didn't have the prospect of being a #1 seed, I'd be delighted with the current setup.

 

I can see a bit of a yo-yo effect happening for Scotland with this draw format.

Promoted from C, then play some good teams in B, relegated from B...

Guaranteed a Euro playoff every 4 years in that case - suits me fine. 

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Worst off will be the sort of sides that are probably good enough to make a dent in C but got papped out of B.  They may well gain promotion again in two years time, leaving them a tougher path to Euro 2024.  If we're going to be a yo-yo nation that relies on the Nations League lifeline, we could scarcely have positioned ourselves better.

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26 minutes ago, forameus said:

Worst off will be the sort of sides that are probably good enough to make a dent in C but got papped out of B.  They may well gain promotion again in two years time, leaving them a tougher path to Euro 2024.  If we're going to be a yo-yo nation that relies on the Nations League lifeline, we could scarcely have positioned ourselves better.

A side in that boat may well end up still scraping into playoffs after the regular groups are done by virtue of the majority of teams in A qualifying automatically as well as a few in B. If you are going to be a yo-yo side you'd obviously much rather be starting in C for a Euro campaign though.

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54 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

A side in that boat may well end up still scraping into playoffs after the regular groups are done by virtue of the majority of teams in A qualifying automatically as well as a few in B. If you are going to be a yo-yo side you'd obviously much rather be starting in C for a Euro campaign though.

Very true.  I'd imagine a lot of those sweating over making the playoffs in C might end up in there anyway after all's said and done.  20 teams qualify as part of the main route, and if, say, the top 20 currently ranked are the ones that go in, Slovakia, Turkey and both Irelands would fall into the playoff to replace Division A's teams, and then the 2nd tier of Division C would replace Division B.  I think.  

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14 minutes ago, forameus said:

Very true.  I'd imagine a lot of those sweating over making the playoffs in C might end up in there anyway after all's said and done.  20 teams qualify as part of the main route, and if, say, the top 20 currently ranked are the ones that go in, Slovakia, Turkey and both Irelands would fall into the playoff to replace Division A's teams, and then the 2nd tier of Division C would replace Division B.  I think.  

I think it's the other way round. In that example Slovakia Turkey and the Irelands would be in the B playoff and the C teams would go into A. Not really relevant in your example but it would be if a couple of the bigger nations failed to automatically qualify. 

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I could post up how all the groups went, but who gives a f**k?!

We're top, we face Finland in March, and we'll fucking pump those Serbian/Norwegian melts in the final.  

Instead, let's see how qualifying next year could go, as seedings are now fixed.  There are some lovely draws in there, but with Germany dropping down, there's the potential for a horrorshow.  However, if you take them out of the equation, is there really anyone to truly fear in that second pot?  

Alex McLeish's Bottle of Something Nice Draw
Poland
Wales
Scotland
Lithuania
Gibraltar
San Marino

Alex McLeish's Dry Weekend Draw
England
Germany
Serbia
Romania
Kosovo

     
UNL Pot
Team Rank
16px-Flag_of_Switzerland.svg.png  Switzerland 1
23px-Flag_of_Portugal.svg.png Portugal 2
23px-Flag_of_the_Netherlands.svg.png Netherlands 3
23px-Flag_of_England.svg.png England 4
Pot 1
Team Rank
23px-Flag_of_Belgium_%28civil%29.svg.png Belgium 5
23px-Flag_of_Spain.svg.png Spain 6
23px-Flag_of_France.svg.png France 7
23px-Flag_of_Italy.svg.png Italy 8
23px-Flag_of_Croatia.svg.png Croatia 9
23px-Flag_of_Poland.svg.png Poland 10
Pot 2
Team Rank
23px-Flag_of_Germany.svg.png Germany 11
21px-Flag_of_Iceland.svg.png Iceland 12
23px-Flag_of_Bosnia_and_Herzegovina.svg. Bosnia and Herzegovina 13
23px-Flag_of_Ukraine.svg.png Ukraine 14
20px-Flag_of_Denmark.svg.png Denmark 15
23px-Flag_of_Sweden.svg.png Sweden 16
23px-Flag_of_Russia.svg.png Russia 17
23px-Flag_of_Austria.svg.png Austria 18
23px-Flag_of_Wales_%281959%E2%80%93prese Wales 19
23px-Flag_of_the_Czech_Republic.svg.png Czech Republic 20
Pot 3
Team Rank
23px-Flag_of_Slovakia.svg.png Slovakia 21
23px-Flag_of_Turkey.svg.png Turkey 22
23px-Flag_of_Ireland.svg.png Republic of Ireland 23
23px-Ulster_Banner.svg.png Northern Ireland 24
23px-Flag_of_Scotland.svg.png Scotland 25
21px-Flag_of_Norway.svg.png Norway 26
23px-Flag_of_Serbia.svg.png Serbia 27
23px-Flag_of_Finland.svg.png Finland 28
23px-Flag_of_Bulgaria.svg.png Bulgaria 29
21px-Flag_of_Israel.svg.png Israel 30
Pot 4
Team Rank
23px-Flag_of_Hungary.svg.png Hungary 31
23px-Flag_of_Romania.svg.png Romania 32
23px-Flag_of_Greece.svg.png Greece 33
21px-Flag_of_Albania.svg.png Albania 34
23px-Flag_of_Montenegro.svg.png Montenegro 35
23px-Flag_of_Cyprus.svg.png Cyprus 36
23px-Flag_of_Estonia.svg.png Estonia 37
23px-Flag_of_Slovenia.svg.png Slovenia 38
23px-Flag_of_Lithuania.svg.png Lithuania 39
23px-Flag_of_Georgia.svg.png Georgia 40
Pot 5
Team Rank
23px-Flag_of_Macedonia.svg.png Macedonia 41
21px-Flag_of_Kosovo.svg.png Kosovo 42
23px-Flag_of_Belarus.svg.png Belarus 43
23px-Flag_of_Luxembourg.svg.png Luxembourg 44
23px-Flag_of_Armenia.svg.png Armenia 45
23px-Flag_of_Azerbaijan.svg.png Azerbaijan 46
23px-Flag_of_Kazakhstan.svg.png Kazakhstan 47
23px-Flag_of_Moldova.svg.png Moldova 48
23px-Flag_of_Gibraltar.svg.png Gibraltar 49
21px-Flag_of_the_Faroe_Islands.svg.png Faroe Islands 50
Pot 6
Team Rank
23px-Flag_of_Latvia.svg.png Latvia 51
23px-Flag_of_Liechtenstein.svg.png Liechtenstein 52
22px-Flag_of_Andorra.svg.png Andorra 53
23px-Flag_of_Malta.svg.png Malta 54
20px-Flag_of_San_Marino.svg.png San Marino 55
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4 minutes ago, DAVIDB69 said:

How the heck are Poland top seeds

Because they were in the top Nations League division.  If you're in that, you're a top seed.

5 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

If we beat Finland are we at home for final too?

There's a draw in a years time to decide that, so not necessarily.  If we're involved, it'll be at Hampden, or in Serbia, or in Norway. 

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11 minutes ago, charger29 said:

We've got a chance of avoiding Germany as we're a host of the Euro's.

Only two hosts can be in the same quali group, so if England/Italy/Spain/Netherlands get Germany then we can't be in that group. Same for Denmark, Russia etc.

Let's hope for a host nation out of pot 1 then.

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2 minutes ago, Pie Of The Month said:

It's fairly impressive how forameus manages to f**k up near enough every one of the informative posts in this thread.

You're mean :( I got Sccotland's name right, what more do you want?

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