General Election Speculation

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Lectern has the PM’s seal on it, does that mean its not an election?

[welshbairn]

Hoping its not yet another May anticlimax.

Edited September 2, 2019 by welshbairn

[welshbairn]

I'd hate being that cop outside, imagine the viral storm of unconsciously scratching your balls at the wrong moment. 

[ICTJohnboy]

So no snap election.

Very disappointing.

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Called it!

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

Averagey looking cocktease, IMO.

[ICTJohnboy]

What a fucking pathetic speech - complete load of shite.

C'mon Nicola - you know what you've got to do now.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It makes sense to me tbh, always thought that Boris was just going for an early election footing and needed to look as extreme as possible to appease Brexit Party but would ideally not have to deal with the consequences.
The one wrecking ball that needs to be activated is if the deselected Tories (assuming they don't shite it) club together as 'Independent Conservatives' or something similar for the election and run against Tory candidates. A fair number of them have very strong personal votes and would likely either challenge for the seat in their own right or deliver the seat to someone else.

It could backfire if it'd turned into a "People vs the Dictator/Government" vote.

Over an intense election campaign I think he could be vulnerable - especially if folk push the antidemocratic line and the mess that No Deal would make

It could also cone down to tactical voting - if I was in England I'd be voting for the candidate best placed to beat a BP/Tory candidate.

Hopefully Scotland will return zero Tories (again).

[Paco]

‘I don’t want an election, you don’t want an election’ but I’ll call for one tomorrow and whine like f**k if you block it.

[DrewDon]

That was like Johnson had watched May's best bits and decided 'Yeah, I'll have a bit of that'. 

[tintax]

He'll be back outside No.10 calling an election when the so called rebels defeat the government. 

[welshbairn]

Pretty straight vote for me or you'll be out of a job and put Corbyn in power spiel. Directed at Tories obviously. General Election incoming.

Edited September 2, 2019 by welshbairn

[O'Kelly Isley III]

That was a rattled and rattling performance from Johnson, and I stand completely by my recent post.
We are now entering the final reels of Passport To Pimlico.

[Granny Danger]

Johnson has nothing to offer the EU.  Nothing, nada, zip.

Much of what is happening now is an attempt to mask this.

He was so desperate to be PM he hadn't given any thought of what to do when he got the job.

Either that or he genuinely thought that the EU was simply going to roll over when he started barking!

One of the problems of upper class privilege is that when you’re finally told “No” then you don’t know how to respond.

[dorlomin]

So if he calls tomorrows vote a confidence vote, then loses, the opposition can call a motion of No Confidence and them the caretaker PM to extend Brexit followed by an election ploy could come into play. I have seen the Tories claim there are things they can do to prevent this, any one have details?

Edited September 2, 2019 by dorlomin

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Assuming the above happens, when the Conservative leader inevitably declines IndyRef2, where do we go from there? 

I have covered this before.

 

Sturgeon resigns.

 

If a new First Minister is not chosen by MSPs within 28 days then there is an emergency Scottish Election.

 

Campaign on an IndyRef2 manifesto again and they will find it very hard to ignore.

 

[Diamonds are Forever]

29 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Johnson has nothing to offer the EU.  Nothing, nada, zip.

Much of what is happening now is an attempt to mask this.

He was so desperate to be PM he hadn't given any thought of what to do when he got the job.

Either that or he genuinely thought that the EU was simply going to roll over when he started barking!

One of the problems of upper class privilege is that when you’re finally told “No” then you don’t know how to respond.

 

For as long as the EU think there is any chance that we might not leave Johnson isn't going to get any concessions on May's deal. They want us to stay and aren't going to make it easier for us to leave. Particularly when we have absolutely no bargaining power (made even worse by ruling out no-deal).

The only point at which they might make some concessions would be when they know for a fact that we will be leaving, and I think the only way that could happen would be if a Brexit supporting party won a general election. An election is a near certainty I'd say, without I think we will continue to be in limbo. Of course, it's quite possible that we have an election and there is no majority, meaning we'd be right back to where we are now.

[Granny Danger]

7 minutes ago, Diamonds are Forever said:

 

For as long as the EU think there is any chance that we might not leave Johnson isn't going to get any concessions on May's deal. They want us to stay and aren't going to make it easier for us to leave. Particularly when we have absolutely no bargaining power (made even worse by ruling out no-deal).

The only point at which they might make some concessions would be when they know for a fact that we will be leaving, and I think the only way that could happen would be if a Brexit supporting party won a general election. An election is a near certainty I'd say, without I think we will continue to be in limbo. Of course, it's quite possible that we have an election and there is no majority, meaning we'd be right back to where we are now.

Want to buy a bridge?

[welshbairn]

37 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

So if he calls tomorrows vote a confidence vote, then loses, the opposition can call a motion of No Confidence and them the caretaker PM to extend Brexit followed by an election ploy could come into play. I have seen the Tories claim there are things they can do to prevent this, any one have details?

He said today, in barely coded form, that if he loses the vote tomorrow he'll call a GE. No VONC required, no caretaker PM, just a 70% majority. The opposition will demand a guarantee that the election will take place before Halloween which will require a short but separate bit of legislation.