General Election Speculation

[Granny Danger]

I hope the SNP are going to oppose an immediate election and take the same position as others that they want to see the legislation preventing No Deal getting royal assent first.

Having listened to Blackford I think that’s the line they will take.

 

[ICTJohnboy]

1 minute ago, Michael W said:

Provided the extension is asked for, and granted. 

Parliament can't keep ruling this out eternally - the date is set unless the EU agrees to extend it, and there's nothing that can be done to stop it other than revoking Article 50. 

 

I would rejoice if Article 50 was to be revoked, but I believe the EU have hinted that an extension could be granted.

[dorlomin]

8 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

That should be off the table by the end of the week.

Given that Boris has just kicked has just kicked 21 excellent MPs out of his party, and will hopefully lose all, or most of the Tory Scottish seats,  I can't see him getting a working majority.

If there is an election and they get a working majority, they can repeal the legislation. 

[ICTJohnboy]

2 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

If there is an election and they get a working majority, they can repeal the legislation. 

True.

[tirso]

Taking no deal off the table doesn't give the eu any incentive to change the deal.

The govt haven't came up with any proposals of how they want the deal changed.

I'm not convinced anybody is actually working on any deal. It's brinkmanship without direction on one and an attempt to remain on the other.

Shambles all round.

[Michael W]

3 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

I would rejoice if Article 50 was to be revoked, but I believe the EU have hinted that an extension could be granted.

It only takes one Member State to refuse it and we're out. Patience must surely be running out by now as well, even if the EU way is to boot the can down the road. 

We can't try and legislate our way out of no deal, unfortunately. The EU treaties don't allow us to do so and an election with a certain result could see the clock rundown and no deal. 

[ICTJohnboy]

PMQs could be interesting today!

[dorlomin]

1 minute ago, tirso said:

Taking no deal off the table doesn't give the eu any incentive to change the deal.

The day after No Deal we will be sat round a table with the EU trying to negotiate our trade deal with them. The whole No Deal shitfest is just kicking the can down the road a few weeks and removing what leverage we have in the negotiations. 

[EvilScotsman]

Just now, Michael W said:

It only takes one Member State to refuse it and we're out. Patience must surely be running out by now as well, even if the EU way is to boot the can down the road. 

We can't try and legislate our way out of no deal, unfortunately. The EU treaties don't allow us to do so and an election with a certain result could see the clock rundown and no deal. 

No, we can unilaterally withdraw the Article 50 notification - see Wightman case.

 

"The European Court of Justice has today ruled in Case C-621/18 Wightman and others that the United Kingdom may, if it chooses to, unilaterally revoke its notification of intention to withdraw from the European Union.

This ruling of the Court affirms both the sovereignty of the United Kingdom as a nation, and the sovereignty of the UK Parliament.

Parliament can instruct the Government either to continue with the current negotiations around the UK’s withdrawal, or to bring an end to that process and keep the UK in the EU on the basis of its present membership deal."

[Michael W]

4 minutes ago, EvilScotsman said:

No, we can unilaterally withdraw the Article 50 notification - see Wightman case.

 

"The European Court of Justice has today ruled in Case C-621/18 Wightman and others that the United Kingdom may, if it chooses to, unilaterally revoke its notification of intention to withdraw from the European Union.

This ruling of the Court affirms both the sovereignty of the United Kingdom as a nation, and the sovereignty of the UK Parliament.

Parliament can instruct the Government either to continue with the current negotiations around the UK’s withdrawal, or to bring an end to that process and keep the UK in the EU on the basis of its present membership deal."

Yes, but this is not currently a feasible option. This could indeed be done at any time. 

Whether revocation would become a  serious consideration in the event an extension was refused, we would see if it happened. We know there is currently not majority support for no deal, but pushed to it would the majority arrive for no deal or revocation?

Edited September 4, 2019 by Michael W

[EvilScotsman]

5 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Yes, but this is not currently a feasible option. This could indeed be done at any time. 

Whether revocation would become a  serious consideration in the event an extension was refused, we would see if it happened. We know there is currently not majority support for no deal, but pushed to it would the majority arrive for no deal or revocation?

Majority of the electorate or of the House of Commons?

I agree that it's unlikely (certainly with the current makeup of the HoC), was just pointing out that the EU can't stop us doing it

[Michael W]

1 minute ago, EvilScotsman said:

Majority of the electorate or of the House of Commons?

I agree that it's unlikely (certainly with the current makeup of the HoC), was just pointing out that the EU can't stop us doing it

Certainly in the Commons - about the only thing there is a majority for! 

No idea on the public, could be an interesting one. 

[John Lambies Doos]

Unbelievable that Scotland is still part of this shite

[WhiteRoseKillie]

22 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

An election in the next month would have a very reasonable likelihood of a working Tory majority therefore No Deal Brexit. A second referendum seems a matter of urgency in the current political climate. 

...which is exactly why there won't be one. Johnson has blown his chance of controlling the timetable, and is currently hanging on grimly waiting for a grown-up to tell him what to do. Unfortunately, Cummings has been weeding anyone with a semblance of sense out of the party.

Johnson has blown any semblance of competrence or authority he may have had. Yesterday was absolutely delicious, with Tory after Tory getting a spanking - from Corbyn, Blackford, Bercow, their own fúcking side.

Nobody can come back from that performance, especially if reports of the New Machiavelli wandering the lobbies in a drunken rant are anywhere near accurate. If Cummings gets a deserved comeuppance, I simply cannot wait to see how johnson performs without anyone to pull his strings.

Highlight for me had to be "I'm having a GE" - "Not until we're ready, you're not". Boom, mic drop. It's too early for me to be crowing to those who dismissed Labour and Corbyn as ineffectual, but I've never, never seen a Government so comprehensively eviscerated in one day in the HoC.

I am looking forward to PMQs today. Petty, maybe, but there's little can compete for entertainment value with a Tory getting a kicking.

[John Lambies Doos]

...which is exactly why there won't be one. Johnson has blown his chance of controlling the timetable, and is currently hanging on grimly waiting for a grown-up to tell him what to do. Unfortunately, Cummings has been weeding anyone with a semblance of sense out of the party.
Johnson has blown any semblance of competrence or authority he may have had. Yesterday was absolutely delicious, with Tory after Tory getting a spanking - from Corbyn, Blackford, Bercow, their own fúcking side.
Nobody can come back from that performance, especially if reports of the New Machiavelli wandering the lobbies in a drunken rant are anywhere near accurate. If Cummings gets a deserved comeuppance, I simply cannot wait to see how johnson performs without anyone to pull his strings.
Highlight for me had to be "I'm having a GE" - "Not until we're ready, you're not". Boom, mic drop. It's too early for me to be crowing to those who dismissed Labour and Corbyn as ineffectual, but I've never, never seen a Government so comprehensively eviscerated in one day in the HoC.
I am looking forward to PMQs today. Petty, maybe, but there's little can compete for entertainment value with a Tory getting a kicking.

That's a good post, but giving Corbyn credit for that is ridiculous

[philyerboots]

[dorlomin]

3 minutes ago, philyerboots said:

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#93494

 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

8 minutes ago, philyerboots said:

[Granny Danger]

46 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

The day after No Deal we will be sat round a table with the EU trying to negotiate our trade deal with them. The whole No Deal shitfest is just kicking the can down the road a few weeks and removing what leverage we have in the negotiations. 

There’s only leverage if the EU is willing to move on the backstop.  They’re not and the U.K. side has offered no realistic alternative.

If a No Desl was somehow to happen on 31 October then on 1 November the EU position would be “agree the divorce bill, agree to a backstop and protect citizens’ rights then we will discuss a trade deal”.

Ken Clark also pointed out yesterday that if the U.K. wants to trade on WTO terms setting up a hard border between the ROI and NI is a prerequisite.

 

[welshbairn]

Interesting..

Quote

I have belatedly worked out that Boris Johnson can and probably will accept the legislation delaying Brexit as the price of going to the country in a general election – because he would campaign on a manifesto of leaving the EU on 31 October. So if he wins the clear Commons majority he seeks, he could repeal that legislation in a single day before 31 October and could insist that the Lords do not block repeal (because repeal would have been in the Tory manifesto).

So we are heading for a general election as a proxy for a referendum, with Tories campaigning to Brexit, deal or no deal, on 31 October.

I really can’t see how Labour could refuse to sanction and fight an election on those terms.

Robert Peston is ITV’s Political Editor. 

 

Edited September 4, 2019 by welshbairn