General Election Speculation

[dorlomin]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The opposition maybe fragmenting tactically already.

 

Shot to nothing, she gets to pretend to be keen on Twitter while not really having to back an election that would lead to No Deal. 

[Granny Danger]

35 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

This PMQ is fucking mental. Johnson appears to believe his job is to ask Corbyn what he's going to do about Brexit, rather than answer questions about his own policies. It's an original tactic, I'll grant you, but Raaab and Javid really don't look happy. Good.

Happened to be driving and managed to listen to all the Corbyn/Johnson exchange.

Johnson got in a couple of good lines in his usual style but I thought Corbyn did an excellent job of exposing the fact that the PM has done nothing on Brexit since assuming office.

 

[Ross.]

We'd be looking at an election on Brexit with f**k all else talked about. The Conservatives will paint themselves as the party who will deliver Brexit and the media will do their best to paint everyone else as wanting to stop Brexit. The opposition parties will need to make sure they don't split the votes too much or you'd be looking at a Conservative landslide when they hoover up the gammon vote.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Ross. said:

We'd be looking at an election on Brexit with f**k all else talked about. The Conservatives will paint themselves as the party who will deliver Brexit and the media will do their best to paint everyone else as wanting to stop Brexit. The opposition parties will need to make sure they don't split the votes too much or you'd be looking at a Conservative landslide when they hoover up the gammon vote.

If the opposition parties cooperate and run on a second referendum, versus the Tories on a no deal Brexit, I don't think Johnson will be back in number 10.  

[Ross.]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

If the opposition parties cooperate and run on a second referendum, versus the Tories on a no deal Brexit, I don't think Johnson will be back in number 10.  

It's hard to see the first part of that happening though. The referendum question would need to be agreed on before the election I imagine.

[Detournement]

There is no chance Labour ally with the Lib Dems.

They are an ocean apart on policy and Swinson has made clear she won't work with JC. 

[Michael W]

It's the cooperation part that's an issue. 

Corbyn wants to be PM - will Labour be inclined to stand down candidates so the Lib Dems get a crack at the Tories? 

The Lib Dems distrust Corbyn on Europe - are they inclined to stand down candidates? 

The answer, if you're looking to stop no deal, is yes. But it will cause serious issues otherwise. 

Edited September 4, 2019 by Michael W

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Absolutely nothing. Your point, caller?

Then your whine about the FT report as not being credible is invalid. Fairly straightforward stuff. 

Edited September 4, 2019 by vikingTON

[Detournement]

28 minutes ago, Michael W said:

It's the cooperation part that's an issue. 

Corbyn wants to be PM - will Labour be inclined to stand down candidates so the Lib Dems get a crack at the Tories? 

The Lib Dems distrust Corbyn on Europe - are they inclined to stand down candidates? 

The answer, if you're looking to stop no deal, is yes. But it will cause serious issues otherwise. 

Labour will be going for a majority in a GE.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

37 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Labour will be going for a majority in a GE.

And, if they can put the blame for brexit where it belongs, they may well get it. The issue is whether the Purdah period is long enough to chip away at two years of RW propaganda.

[dorlomin]

3 hours ago, dorlomin said:

Labour's move here is to enforce an extension of A50 and push the election to November. The new leader bounce will be out of Boris's step and he will look like he is being bullied by Corbyn on Brexit, a poor look for his populist image of "getting things done". All they have to do is refuse his pleading for a bill to dissolve parliament before the anti No Deal legislation is on the books then run down the clock till his poroguing of parliament bites him on the bum. Only offer to support dissolution of parliament with a A50 extension nailed. 

Boris will try to get an election at any cost before Oct31 so he can win off the back of his bullshit posturing. 

If they allow parliament to dissolve for an election before Oct 31, No Deal is pretty much nailed on. 

 

Edited Off course I still think the best course is a VONC and installing a caretaker coalition but it does not look like that has legs atm. 

 

My boi. 

[Detournement]

It's bizarre that people think Boris is going to extend A50 which would strengthen the Brexit party.

Cummings' plan will be to force a VONC and a new government and get the other parties to carry the can.

[Blootoon87]

Anyone that thinks they have a clue where this is going is at it.

[JamieThomas]

4 minutes ago, Blootoon87 said:

Anyone that thinks they have a clue where this is going is at it.

What if you think it's going to become an even bigger shitshow

[dorlomin]

22 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Cummings' plan will be to force a VONC and a new government and get the other parties to carry the can.

A vote of no confidence would bounce Boris out of no 10 and potentially allow a coalition to form to extend A50 and either run an election in November on a second referendum or table an actual referendum. It completely hands the initiative to his opponents and would seriously undermine Boris' ability to retain leadership of the tory party. 

I see no reason why it would be anywhere on their strategy plan. 

There plan had been to run down the clock in a curtailed parliamentary session, now Benn's legislation places that plan in a seriously damaged position. The House rises on the 12th of September at which point votes of no confidence and motions to disolve for an election cannot happen and only returns for a Queen's Speech on the 14th of October. 

He has set a ticking clock that is now working against him. 

 

edited as I had the dates wrong. 

Edited September 4, 2019 by dorlomin

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

I'm listening to Chris Moyles show from yesterday and on the news bulletin it has John McDonnell saying 'general election, bring it on'.

 

Now saying, no election.

[welshbairn]

11 minutes ago, UsedToGoToCentralPark said:

I'm listening to Chris Moyles show from yesterday and on the news bulletin it has John McDonnell saying 'general election, bring it on'.

 

Now saying, no election.

Only no election until the Government has no way of voluntarily crashing out of the EU before it is held.

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

Only no election until the Government has no way of voluntarily crashing out of the EU before it is held.

Running scared IMO.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

33 minutes ago, Detournement said:

It's bizarre that people think Boris is going to extend A50 which would strengthen the Brexit party.

Cummings' plan will be to force a VONC and a new government and get the other parties to carry the can.

The only way they're getting a VONC is if they call for it themselves. Added to the absolute mess they're shitting all over Parliament as we speak - with no sign of them having the slightest smidgeon of competence - how is that going to play on the doorsteps?

It'll be my first line - so, the Tories themselves think they're shit. Here's our manifesto. Put you down as a maybe?

[Detournement]

14 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

A vote of no confidence would bounce Boris out of no 10 and potentially allow a coalition to form to extend A50 and either run an election in November on a second referendum or table an actual referendum. It completely hands the initiative to his opponents and would seriously undermine Boris' ability to retain leadership of the tory party. 

I see no reason why it would be anywhere on their strategy plan. 

There plan had been to run down the clock in a curtailed parliamentary session, now Benn's legislation places that plan in a seriously damaged position. The House rises on the 12th of September at which point votes of no confidence and motions to disolve for an election cannot happen and only returns for a Queen's Speech on the 14th of October.

Boris would love to run as an insurgent saying that the other parties formed an illegitimate government to stop Brexit. If he extends A50 it kills his credentials with Brexit Party voters. His position is safe. Tory members made their choice clear, I doubt the MPs will be in a rush to repeat the PLP's chicken coup masterstroke of telling the members they made the wrong choice.

There is no chance of a referendum before an election as no one is stupid is enough to agree to be PM for the 7 or 8 months it takes to run a referendum then a GE.

The Benn bill will pass then Boris will announce that he considers it over reach and that he will not be extending A50. That will leave a VONC, a short term government to get an extension and an election.