Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Paco]

Detailed analysis from the ONS on Covid deaths

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinmarch2020

 

Does anyone know if the ‘extra’ deaths picked up by the ONS from March were assigned to the running tally of total deaths in the UK? The 15k or so?

 

As I recall Scotland added the ‘extra’ deaths to the tally when the NRS took over the official reporting from health boards but I’m not sure if this has happened for the entire country.

 

Either way I suspect the current tally of people who have died with Covid in the UK is at least 25,000, and quite possibly over 30k. There’s a definite under reporting at the moment, missing out effectively everyone who didn’t die in a hospital, although whether that‘s consistent with international reporting I’ve no idea.

[Granny Danger]

3 hours ago, MONKMAN said:

I know a few younger people who vote for the tories. The idiots somehow think that because they’re mortgaged our their eyeballs in a 3 bed detached new build, with a leased bmw in the drive, that they’re somehow middle class. Strange behaviour.

 

Also ****, **** vote Tory to “save the union”.

 

I recall in the aftermath of the Independence Referendum there was a poll that showed slightly more Sevco fans voted Yes than No.

I was a wee bit surprised but have no reason to question its accuracy.

 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

13 minutes ago, jagfox99 said:

Vitamin D is naturally produced in lower amounts for people with darker skin colour. 

This can be an issue when BAME folk live in Northern countries.

Can Vitamin D Lower Your Risk of COVID-19? - Obviously not a sole reason but could be a factor.

Us Jocks will be practically invincible then.

[ArabianKnight]

7 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Someone no longer having her picture on a website doesn't amount to proof of anything for me. Him saying it's well researched and not tin hat doesn't make it so.

You didn't actually watch it all and take that from it surely

[bennett]

10 minutes ago, jagfox99 said:

Vitamin D is naturally produced in lower amounts for people with darker skin colour. 

This can be an issue when BAME folk live in Northern countries.

Can Vitamin D Lower Your Risk of COVID-19? - Obviously not a sole reason but could be a factor.

 

That could be playing a part in this by weakening a lot of people's immune systems at the worst possible time, an interesting article.

 

[well fan for life]

I've more or less stopped checking the news regularly. I'll check in maybe once every day or two but I was finding it was putting me on a bit of a downer when I would check in on it multiple times a day. 

[Gaz]

14 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Not only will there be fewer businesses about, some of those that do survive will maybe come to the conclusion they could do with less staff.

I've been saying this since the start.

When all this is over, not only are a lot of businesses going to realise they don't need the fancy office in the middle of the city, but they don't need the staff in numbers that they have at present.

A lot of people are going to realise that their jobs don't matter and no-one cares if they're not being done.

[jagfox]

7 minutes ago, bennett said:

 

That could be playing a part in this by weakening a lot of people's immune systems at the worst possible time, an interesting article.

 

I've read and heard a few other articles about it.

[coprolite]

1 hour ago, pandarilla said:

2 excellent posts.

I teach hyperinflation in secondary schools and it's my favourite topic. I know the basics, and the statistics surrounding the price of bread blow their little minds. But the conversation always goes to a place where i fell less qualified (they ask good qs, and i admit when i don't know the answer). The best question i ever got was, 'why didn't they just buy rolls?'

I get that qi has been very similar (except it was used to prop up the fucking rich) , and we've managed to keep inflation under control. But how long could this borrowing last?

Surely if other countries are trading and getting going and we're still in lockdown printing money shit will happen eventually.

In the short term, we obviously need to borrow our way out. But could we pay everything on tick for the medium term - into a number of years?
 

There is no inflationary pressure on wages at the moment and real interest rates are negative. 

If we start getting real interest rates rising or wages rising we should stop borrowing. 

That's the conventional wisdom, but we're in fairly uncharted territory and new issues have a habit of being discovered in extreme situations. 

The point at the moment is that the alternative to government spending is economic collapse.

If you needed a couple of thousand pounds quickly to pay for a life saving operation for a family member, would you hesitate about using a credit card even if the repayments might get painful? 

Edited April 20, 2020 by coprolite
Oh, and rolls don't fit in the toaster.

[Honest Saints Fan]

6 hours ago, SmudgePop said:

Did you buy it or did you make it and customize? Does it have filter for protection? TIA

https://preorder.cambridgemask.com It was from this company. 

[jagfox]

10 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

Us Jocks will be practically invincible then.

This virus won't stop us reaching our median old age of 56...

[Todd_is_God]

11 minutes ago, well fan for life said:

I've more or less stopped checking the news regularly. I'll check in maybe once every day or two but I was finding it was putting me on a bit of a downer when I would check in on it multiple times a day. 

I just check the figures from Scotland, the UK, France, Italy and Spain now.

No point watching the news. It's the same soundbites on repeat.

[welshbairn]

51 minutes ago, ArabianKnight said:

You didn't actually watch it all and take that from it surely

Pretty well. It's no secret that the lab was studying bat viruses, it's publicly acknowledged. The rest of the stuff he picked up from the Chinese equivalent of facebook, I'm sure they've got their conspiracy theorists joining A and B to make Z too. I'm not saying it couldn't have happened, just that he didn't show any evidence other than rumour and conjecture, and I seriously distrust the motives of people pushing this agenda. It reminds me of the Russians and Craig Murray arguing that it couldn't be a coincidence that Porton Down was only a few miles from the centre of Salisbury. While Trump's backers are sounding increasingly warlike about China to deflect from his incompetence, I'm not going to take the word of an American vlogger without seeing his workings.

Edited April 20, 2020 by welshbairn

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, jagfox99 said:

Vitamin D is naturally produced in lower amounts for people with darker skin colour. 

This can be an issue when BAME folk live in Northern countries.

Can Vitamin D Lower Your Risk of COVID-19? - Obviously not a sole reason but could be a factor.

That'll signal a run on Cod Liver Oil capsules. (Thankfully I've already got 2 bottles from Holland & Barrett along with my Multivitamins and Iron).

#leavingnostoneunturned

[Guest]

38 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Not only will there be fewer businesses about, some of those that do survive will maybe come to the conclusion they could do with less staff.

Yes, there's every chance, plus a good few companies have only stayed afloat to take advantage of the Gov schemes, once those finish there will be a few plugs being pulled. 

[madwullie]

48 minutes ago, bennett said:

I've seen lots of pics of Islamic people out flouting the rules in an attempt to bring us down, only the pics are usually all a few years old. Ofcourse idiots clapping on bridges is ok.

 

There's probably higher instances amongst black and Asians due to them having full families housed together, similar with the Mediterranean countries.  While we pap the auld ones off to homes. 

 

 

Not to mention the higher proportion of black/Asians who have died from the virus as front line medical staff

[Jacksgranda]

9 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Not to mention the higher proportion of black/Asians who have died from the virus as front line medical staff

What % of black/asians are front line medical staff?

Are Covid-19 deaths broken down by profession and race?

[Bairnardo]

I think it's a stretch it accurately assess this period as meaning you can get by with less staff. Everything is different now. I cant think of a single business who will be operating so close to normality atm that they can say with any real conviction that they can make a big change in their model and run as well when things go back to normal.


None of this is to say some wont do it anyway. They will be stupid though, most likely

[Michael W]

41 minutes ago, Gaz said:

I've been saying this since the start.

When all this is over, not only are a lot of businesses going to realise they don't need the fancy office in the middle of the city, but they don't need the staff in numbers that they have at present.

A lot of people are going to realise that their jobs don't matter and no-one cares if they're not being done.

I can also see a few current key workers in shops etc being rewarded for all this by being automated out a job under the guise of protecting staff by reducing interactions with the public. 

There are quite a lot of changes that will come out of this, some of them behavioural rather than anything else, that may take a long time to recede, if indeed they ever do. Saw an interesting Bloomberg article on Wuhan following the lockdown being lifted - basically restaurants are empty even though they are open and people allowed in. Paranoia about catching the virus will take a very long time to fade. 

[hk blues]

14 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

What % of black/asians are front line medical staff?

Are Covid-19 deaths broken down by profession and race?

Re. breakdown by race -  Not yet, but I read they are going to start.  I'm not sure if it will be retrospective - if not, then a lot of valuable data will be lost.