Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Ron Aldo]

It is very quiet on that front. The Russian tie in didn't exactly inspire confidence a few weeks ago either. I still think (maybe even hope now) that the Westminster Clown Troop are waiting to announce it literally on 31 December in an attempt to bury and Brexit shit show.

I suppose you could say that no news is good news. I certainly haven't seen anything to suggest it won't be approved and if there's one thing that's become apparent these last few months it's that the media will take any negative news and run with it. If it wasn't being approved I'm sure something would have been "leaked" by now.

[Bairnardo]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The government can't promise anything, it's just a fact of life that nobody knows how the virus will mutate or how effective the vaccines will be at stopping transmission or coping with later strains. We'll have to live with uncertainty for a while yet, hopefully not too long. I've got holidays booked for May and July, refundable of course.

So you are ok with this type of restrictions rolling in and out based on case numbers for an undefined period of time, or indefinitely?

[101]

2 hours ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

Going to sound like philpy here, but that’s not my intention. Getting a takeaway for lunch, and two groups of 6 teenagers have just been sat down for lunch. It’s definitely a bit grating knowing you can barely wipe your arse at the moment, but that nearly adult age teenagers seem to be allowed to do that.

To be fair maybe they aren’t and the restaurant is breaking rules.

Could you have taken them in a fight?

[vikingTON]

15 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Where is the evidence that schools cause 0.4 R? 

The government's SAGE documents.

Quote

South Lanarkshire has went from 350/100k to 133/100k with the schools open so it's clear that the rate can drop with the schools open.

The reason why it took two months to get that reduction is because the effective R rate was still 0.8 if not slightly higher in tier 4. Throw in an extra 0.4 for the new variant and the rates go in the exact opposite direction.

That's why Sturgeon is talking about more restrictions than current tier 4 and blethered about schools being a 'priority' rather than committing to anything because they are bricking it that they'll have to go into a March-style shutdown. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by vikingTON

[welshbairn]

22 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

So you are ok with this type of restrictions rolling in and out based on case numbers for an undefined period of time, or indefinitely?

Yes, with the rate at which cases can multiply if left unchecked, and potentially overwhelming hospital capacity. Nothing lasts for ever though, and hopefully the vaccines will sort it soon.

Edited December 22, 2020 by welshbairn

[renton]

5 minutes ago, virginton said:

The government's SAGE documents.

The reason why it took two months to get that reduction is because the effective R rate was still 0.8 if not slightly higher in tier 4. Throw in an extra 0.4 for the new variant and the rates go in the exact opposite direction.

That's why Sturgeon is talking about more restrictions than current tier 4 and blethered about schools being a 'priority' rather than committing to anything because they are bricking it that they'll have to go into a March-style shutdown. 

Got a link? I've read through a few different publications of theirs on the subjects over different time periods. Be nice to see which assumptions they were modelling for.

[Honest_Man#1]

18 minutes ago, 101 said:

Could you have taken them in a fight?

Undoubtedly. Luckily I’m nails, so I’d have thrown all 12 of them up and down the street like an empty tracksuit.

[101]

3 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

Undoubtedly. Luckily I’m nails, so I’d have thrown all 12 of them up and down the street like an empty tracksuit.

Missed opportunity.

[Detournement]

5 minutes ago, virginton said:

The government's SAGE documents.

The reason why it took two months to get that reduction is because the effective R rate was still 0.8 if not slightly higher in tier 4. Throw in an extra 0.4 for the new variant and the rates go in the exact opposite direction.

That's why Sturgeon is talking about more restrictions than current tier 4 and blethered about schools being a 'priority' rather than committing to anything because they are bricking it that they'll have to go into a March-style shutdown. 

Can anyone see these Sage documents that only seemed to become public knowledge right after Christmas got cancelled in the SE? 

As for the R rate if schools were providing 0.4 of 0.8 then that means the there was somehow less virus transmitting outside schools in November than in the ghost town days of April. Forgetting any speculative new strains the overall case rate in Scotland is still very low.

 

[madwullie]

34 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Off topic, but talking about the flu vaccine, I was reading the other day that they are close to creating a vaccine that would cover you for all types of flu and wouldn't be required to be given every year. 

It's to do with being able to block the "parent" branches of the usual mutations we see. I don't have the vocabulary to express this, but essentially rather than attacking the yearly mutations, this new vaccine will attack the branch from which the yearly mutations arise. 

Found the article 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/innovative-universal-flu-vaccine-shows-promises-it-first-clinical-test

[Guest]

The US have just pushed through another raft of Economic measures, however similar to our ridiculous "furlough" scheme, there's much unrest being caused by their even more ridiculous unemployment benefit scheme.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/many-americans-are-getting-more-money-from-unemployment-than-they-were-from-their-jobs/

Again, this just confirms how out of touch with reality that the political elites are both here and in the USA.

 

[Bairnardo]

33 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Yes, with the rate at which cases can multiply if left unchecked, and potentially overwhelming hospital capacity. Nothing lasts for ever though, and hopefully the vaccines will sort it soon.

Do we count, or bother about flu cases? Or make any attempt to prevent? 

This was wildly different from the flu at the outset. But from now, it becomes very similar, except no flu vaccine is close to 90% effective I believe.

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Do we count, or bother about flu cases? Or make any attempt to prevent? 

Yes we do, and roll out the vaccines every year. And if it got to where it looked like healthcare might not be able to cope similar measures would likely be taken.

Edited December 22, 2020 by welshbairn

[101]

1 minute ago, Bairnardo said:

Do we count, or bother about flu cases? Or make any attempt to prevent? 

This was wildly different from the flu at the outset. But from now, it becomes very similar, except no flu vaccine is close to 90% effective I believe.

There is usually a message at the start of the flu season tbh now it would probably be work from/ stay home if you have any symptoms which is hopefully one of the many good things about this will mean folk don't soldier into an office whilst sick and make everyone else ill.

[10menwent2mow]

Yes, with the rate at which cases can multiply if left unchecked, and potentially overwhelming hospital capacity. Nothing lasts for ever though, and hopefully the vaccines will sort it soon.

This is unsustainable for businesses though, hospitality chief among them. Its bad enough for staff to be going back and forth onto 80% wages but businesses literally don't know from one day to the next whether to order stock, how much to order, whether to take bookings or not. Moving Aberdeen from 2 to 3 last week wouldve meant a shitload of places having to cancel Christmas dinners or people cancelling themselves. It's like the fucking hokey cokey for hospitality and they are by no means the only ones suffering.

[DA Baracus]

1 hour ago, Gaz said:

Isn't Sturgeon a Hibs fan? kara_hibbee IMO

Nah she's an Ayr fan (or says Ayr are her team; I don't think she's much in to football).

[dirty dingus]

10 minutes ago, DA Baracus said:

Nah she's an Ayr fan (or says Ayr are her team; I don't think she's much in to football).

She might not be into the football much but she went to  games with a wedge cut and ballgame dungaress, she bricked our bus outside Somerset in the 80's

[DA Baracus]

8 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

She might not be into the football much but she went to  games with a wedge cut and ballgame dungaress, she bricked our bus outside Somerset in the 80's

Deserved IMO.

[Wee Bully]

Once the first 6 or 7 priority groups have been vaccinated then we should all be living in the equivalent of tier 0 nationwide at a bare minimum.

I agree 100% with this.

We just need to make sure we don’t “crash the car” getting to that point.

[Wee Bully]

Speculation too that this new strain may spread more easily in children - only hypothetical atm, but the woman I heard speaking on the radio earlier said it was biologically plausible, to do with how the spikes attach to the ace thingmys, and seemingly these are expressed differently in children, and therefore easier for the virus to infect children. Obvs children don't get anywhere near as sick anywhere near as frequently as other age groups, but it could have knock on effects for teachers and other adults working in schools. If this is shown to be the case (and as a layman this might go some way to explaining the noticeably different age group infection rates in the South East and up here) then while we're all getting jabbed, it wouldn't be surprising if schools were treated differently this time round. 

Yes - when the facts change, so should our opinions.

As I’ve said before, there is risk to everything, and benefits need to be weighed against them. Where the risk increases, the corresponding benefit needs to be recalculated.

However, this is still speculation, so I’m happy to stick with the current course of action until it is shown that a change is needed.