Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[pandarilla]

Can someone on here update me on the situation in Sweden?

Am i hearing that their bold herd immunity is paying off, or was that wishful thinking from those who want our lockdown ended?

(apologies for not searching through the mud myself but i know there are folk on here clued up on the details)

[pandarilla]

If Johnson comes back on Monday will he be fronting the press conferences daily?

You have to tip your hat to sturgeon for not missing a day so far.

Even in a national emergency, that takes some doing. And the comparison with the wm briefings is always stark.

[NJ2]

Can someone on here update me on the situation in Sweden?

Am i hearing that their bold herd immunity is paying off, or was that wishful thinking from those who want our lockdown ended?

(apologies for not searching through the mud myself but i know there are folk on here clued up on the details)

This is a good read;

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-asks-people-to-stay-apart-2020-4

Didn’t “lockdown” but had rules and social distancing in place. Everyone urged to stay home where possible, no gatherings over 50 people and crucially the government trust the people to follow the rules...

[Turkmenbashi]

5 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

Can someone on here update me on the situation in Sweden?

Am i hearing that their bold herd immunity is paying off, or was that wishful thinking from those who want our lockdown ended?

(apologies for not searching through the mud myself but i know there are folk on here clued up on the details)

People are dying at a higher rate than neighbouring countries. Stockholm is badly hit but the rest of the country is doing ok.

They claim herd immunity is starting to take hold in Stockholm but since nobody actually knows if herd immunity will happen it's a risky strategy. Also they haven't done antibody testing for it, so nobody can know and are basing it on a decreasing increase in hospitalisations.

[superbigal]

The point in Sweden is the health system has not been overwhelmed.

That really suggests for now their approach has been a success.

Doesn't mean it's right for all countries.

 

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

Can someone on here update me on the situation in Sweden?

Am i hearing that their bold herd immunity is paying off, or was that wishful thinking from those who want our lockdown ended?

I wouldn't say it was "paying off" if by paying off you mean keeping deaths low (Norway v Scotland, for example, is a good comparison as populations are almost identical).

The graph here shows the progression of deaths per 1 million in both Sweden and Scotland since the day each country was at 1 per million.

Neither approach is perhaps "paying off" but if the end result was to be pretty much identical, which approach would you rather live under?

[Turkmenbashi]

Also multigenerational households are not common in Sweden. I believe there are statistics, but I also know anecdotally that a lot of people even when they are young are expected to live by themselves. And remote working was normal before this started, given that Sweden is probably the most technologically country in the world.

However my mates are still going to the pub but are annoyed that they can't go to the football.

Edited April 26, 2020 by Turkmenbashi

[hk blues]

8 minutes ago, NJ2 said:

This is a good read;

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdown-asks-people-to-stay-apart-2020-4

Didn’t “lockdown” but had rules and social distancing in place. Everyone urged to stay home where possible, no gatherings over 50 people and crucially the government trust the people to follow the rules...

Shouldn't the last part read...crucially the government CAN trust the people to follow the rules... ?

[Dee Man]

2 hours ago, doulikefish said:

Needs to start using his zimmer to do laps of his garden

He could probably fly laps of his garden with those lugs. 

[NJ2]

Shouldn't the last part read...crucially the government CAN trust the people to follow the rules... ?

If you prefer? The Swedish government can trust and do trust the population to take the advice. The UK government rightly don’t trust the British public to take the advice.

[Michael W]

15 minutes ago, superbigal said:

The point in Sweden is the health system has not been overwhelmed.

That really suggests for now their approach has been a success.

Doesn't mean it's right for all countries.

 

By this measure just about every country other than Italy has been a success. The NHS hasn't been overwhelmed but I certainly don't think passing 20,000 hospitaldeaths indicated success. 

Given there is also no evidence that those who have had the virus become immune from it, it might also end in outright failure. 

[bendan]

25 minutes ago, Turkmenbashi said:

 

They claim herd immunity is starting to take hold in Stockholm but since nobody actually knows if herd immunity will happen it's a risky strategy. Also they haven't done antibody testing for it, so nobody can know and are basing it on a decreasing increase in hospitalisations.

I thought they had done some antibody testing.

[Paco]

The point in Sweden is the health system has not been overwhelmed.
That really suggests for now their approach has been a success.
Doesn't mean it's right for all countries.
 

This is the key for all countries. It’s always worth bearing in mind as a starting point that if this virus wasn’t projected to totally overwhelm the health system, we would’ve just let it rip through the country. As would most others.

Our NHS has sort of coped, in a way. It hasn’t collapsed as was the case in Lombardy with people dying in corridors, but we’ve built a range of emergency hospitals in conference centres, cancelled millions of routine appointments, treatments and surgeries, and people are having heart attacks and strokes and not going to hospital due to fears. So ‘coping’ wasn’t without its significant downsides.

It’a absolutely obvious that the lockdown has had a significant positive impact. Lockdown came on March 23rd, peak just over two weeks later on April 8th. That isn’t a coincidence. I don’t think it’s unfair to say that even a week more, we would’ve escalated into a Lombardy style situation certainly in London, and as patients were moved outside the city it could’ve had a serious impact on surrounding areas as suddenly their capacity was compromised too.

I’m not sure the UK Government had any choice whatsoever in lockdown and the figures back that up. ‘Just do what Sweden do’ was never a viable option here, even before getting into genuinely important factors like population density/single person households/behavioural norms. But I’m not sure facts really matter to the type of person who would advocate the Sweden model here.

[Billy Jean King]

Reading the guardian this morning, listening to sturgeon this week, and looking at the basic numbers they have no other option but to extend it.

They'll probably eek out the 'grown up consultation' of easing restrictions as much as they can, to buy them time. The pressure to unlock is clearly building, which is understandable in some respects.

But the science is still pretty clear atm.

It's been 5 weeks, not 5 months. The reaction after a mere 5 weeks is unbelievable especially by everyone's admission the death rate isn't falling as quickly as any expert predicted. If anything we need stricter measures not loosening of the kid on lockdown we have had. Spain and Italy have shown that a proper lockdown resulted in death rates declining steeply from their peak.

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, Paco said:

I’m not sure the UK Government had any choice whatsoever in lockdown and the figures back that up.

I’m not sure facts really matter to the type of person who would advocate the Sweden model here.

 

By the time they locked down you are correct. You could argue that they had time to implement restrictions on the most vulnerable (ie old people) prior to that but missed the boat, however.

Are people advocating the Swedish model not looking at it as a way to potentially relax the lockdown in a few weeks? Why would that be completely unrealistic?

[RandomGuy.]

50 minutes ago, mizfit said:

Don’t think as many people are taking it as serious as they were a few weeks Ago so I’m expecting a large jump in cases this week.

 

 

Didnt seem it from my experience. 

Drive home from work on Friday and the Inch was absolutely heaving with people sitting down clearly have lunches. The police were there talking to someone but it would take all day for them to speak to everyone.

Yesterday two of my neighbours had 2 cars I didnt recognise in their drives and you could hear garden parties happening. My dog walk found me walking past 3 barbecues, including one in the street with about 10 people sitting in a circle (clearly not 2 metres apart). Walked past a park on the dog walk and again, it was heaving. Kids park had what looked like two separate families, grass pitch had two separate groups with both their dogs off the leash with a third group playing football while their parents sat down with a picnic.

A lassis I have on FB showing photos of young lads congregating on wasteland behind her house to get wrecked.

The police have no chance of keeping on top of that, absolutely none.

[101]

Quote

Help slow the spread of #COVID19 and identify at risk cases sooner by self-reporting your symptoms daily, even if you feel well  . Download the app https://covid.joinzoe.com/

Don't know if anyone is using the app but I have been for the last few weeks takes less than 10 second to help people track the spread of the virus

[superbigal]

What's happening to Raabs beak on Andrew Marr ? Look a bit like Shankland ?

 

 

[Mark Connolly]

They keep going on about bringing in the guy who "ran the 2012 Olympics".

That's the guy who gave the security contract to G4S then had to call in the Army at the last minute because it was a shambles, isn't it?

[Turkmenbashi]

20 minutes ago, bendan said:

I thought they had done some antibody testing.

I was basing off this, which seems more like wishful thinking than solid evidence to me

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Tegnell said sampling and modeling data indicated that 20% of Stockholm's population is already immune to the virus, and that "in a few weeks' time we might reach herd immunity and we believe that is why we're seeing a slow decline in cases, in spite of sampling (testing for the coronavirus) more and more."