Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Granny Danger]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

It really isn't nonsense. Young healthy adults were not dying in droves from the disease before, there is no reason to suggest they will start now. 

No but they can be spreaders.  The more social contact then the more likliehood of catching it and spreading it.

Loads of young (and quite frankly not so young) people still live in households with older, and in some cases, elderly family.

Going on public transport then going back into such a home environment will be the norm for thousands and thousands of people.

[Carl Cort's Hamstring]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

 

The vast majority of people in England don’t use public transport to get to work. I think it’s about 20% who do and that will be even less outside of London. Not to say that it won’t be an issue but public transport is generally used far less than private cars.

 

It's around 2 thirds in London, and about 18% in England outside of London. It's must vary a lot between different regions though. Places like Liverpool, Birmingham, Manchester and Newcastle which have big suburban railway networks are presumably a fair bit higher.

[throbber]

2 minutes ago, cyderspaceman said:

Aye, that's a 'crew cab', (won't hold 7) Accepted but my question still stands .

They do hold 7 though. I don’t think any of the ones that come to our work are full capacity but you want the workers to be taking every precaution when travelling in them.

[Todd_is_God]

I really hope this doesn't happen, but i don't think the penny will drop until we have another bad flu season.

In the 2017/18 flu season, in England and Wales alone there were over 50,000 excess deaths over the winter. If that happens next year will we have weekly updates on deaths and calls for restrictions everywhere?

The vaccine argument doesn't work either. In over 65s it was only 10% effective, and offered little to no protection against the strains that hit.

Edited May 12, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[madwullie]

100 cases from an sk nightclub at the weekend, presumably most are young fit and healthy yet the sk authorities are shitting it, sorting it and clamping down. 

Unless we're genuinely going for herd immunity, any spread no matter the age or apparent healthiness of those spreading and catching should be avoided. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by madwullie

[ICTChris]

Just now, Carl Cort's Hamstring said:

It's around 2 thirds in London, and about 18% in England outside of London. It's must vary a lot between different regions though. Places like Liverpool, Birmingham, Manchester and Newcastle which have big suburban railway networks are presumably a fair bit higher.

Yeah, London and cities are far more likely to have people commuting.  It's probably impossible to answer but it would be interesting to see how the breakdown of people who are able to work from home among those who normally commute using public transport.  The company I work for has pretty much 100% of staff able to work from home and the vast majority of people working in London are commuters.  They won't need to go back to work for a good while yet.

Again, I've not seen any figures or specific evidence on this but it seems likely that it's higher earners who are more likely to be able to work from home and railway commuters tend to have higher incomes. 

[stumigoo]

Apologies if already posted. That’s the English Teacher’s Unions rejecting a June opening by the looks of things -

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

If we can hold off for another few weeks and get the infection rate down further then we stand a good chance of minimising the second wave and giving tti a chance, but the fact we are not independent and tory mugs can visit their holiday homes etc has absolutely fucked it tbh. Need to stop travel from England for social purposes and unsure how we’d do that!

[ICTChris]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

I really hope this doesn't happen, but i don't think the penny will drop until we have another bad flu season.

In the 2017/18 flu season, in England and Wales alone there were over 50,000 excess deaths over the winter. If that happens next year will we have weekly updates on deaths and calls for restrictions everywhere?

One interesting thing about the flu figures that I have only found out during this pandemic is the way they are calculated.  Basically, post winter there are calculations done regarding the number of excess deaths and further calculations are then done to work out an estimate for how many are likely to be due to flu/influenza.  There aren't actually 50,000 people with H1N1 on their death certificates.

[renton]

1 hour ago, bendan said:

But R0 has been very low for weeks now - there's no reason to think it will drop lower in the general population. That's why we are past the peak. The current 'lockdown' is not literally a lockdown, so TTI would still be useful. We should have been recruiting before we even got to the peak, not starting to recruit several weeks past it.

By very low I believe it needs to be < 0.5, last week it was somewhere between 0.7 and 1, and obviously it will continue to drop assuming we limit any new infection vectors.

Edited May 12, 2020 by renton

[ICTChris]

1 minute ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

If we can hold off for another few weeks and get the infection rate down further then we stand a good chance of minimising the second wave and giving tti a chance, but the fact we are not independent and tory mugs can visit their holiday homes etc has absolutely fucked it tbh. Need to stop travel from England for social purposes and unsure how we’d do that!

I doubt that people from England visiting holiday homes has had or would have any appreciable impact on spreading the virus.  

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, ICTChris said:

One interesting thing about the flu figures that I have only found out during this pandemic is the way they are calculated.  Basically, post winter there are calculations done regarding the number of excess deaths and further calculations are then done to work out an estimate for how many are likely to be due to flu/influenza.  There aren't actually 50,000 people with H1N1 on their death certificates.

The only difference here is there are plenty people with Covid-19 on theirs due to it being "likely due to" as doctors are encouraged to do so at the moment

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

If we can hold off for another few weeks and get the infection rate down further then we stand a good chance of minimising the second wave and giving tti a chance, but the fact we are not independent and tory mugs can visit their holiday homes etc has absolutely fucked it tbh. Need to stop travel from England for social purposes and unsure how we’d do that!

Shoot them.  Not to long ago we were looking for volunteers to pick fruit.  I’d volunteer to shoot people travelling from England to their second homes.

Border control is a devolved matter so the Scottish Parliament can mandate my proposal. 

[madwullie]

3 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

One interesting thing about the flu figures that I have only found out during this pandemic is the way they are calculated.  Basically, post winter there are calculations done regarding the number of excess deaths and further calculations are then done to work out an estimate for how many are likely to be due to flu/influenza.  There aren't actually 50,000 people with H1N1 on their death certificates.

Of course not, which is why the covid truth ers claiming that the covid death rate is lower than reported need to do a bit more reading. 

 

Here is 2018 flu in the US compared to covid (very loose restrictions, most places have a half arsed lockdown or people voluntarily staying at home, some are opening, NYC is proper proper pocked down but did it too late) to end of april

 

 

Edited May 12, 2020 by madwullie

[dirty dingus]

1 hour ago, bendan said:

Why is it the people who post these things are the least likely to visit their family under normal circumstances.

What makes you think that you bellend?

[SlipperyP]

4 minutes ago, madwullie said:

100 cases from an sk nightclub at the weekend, presumably most are young fit and healthy yet the sk authorities are shitting it, sorting it and clamping down. 

Unless we're genuinely going for herd immunity, any spread no matter the age or apparent healthiness of those spreading and catching should be avoided. 

They are not shitting it, this is just UK media ramping it up.

They have problem tracing all the people in the night clubs as many sign in with not their real names. Reason, there is  few gay clubs in the area and homosexuality is still a little taboo, therefore people sign in with an alias.

Carry on.

[cyderspaceman]

7 minutes ago, throbber said:

They do hold 7 though. I don’t think any of the ones that come to our work are full capacity but you want the workers to be taking every precaution when travelling in them.

Thanks. I have only seen 6 seaters but I take your point.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Of course not, which is why the covid truth ers claiming that the covid death rate is lower than reported need to do a bit more reading. 

What? The excess deaths figure being is being widely used to determine the "true number"

It's exactly the same thing

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Shoot them.  Not to long ago we were looking for volunteers to pick fruit.  I’d volunteer to shoot people travelling from England to their second homes.
Border control is a devolved matter so the Scottish Parliament can mandate my proposal. 

We can use our corona virus legislation around necessary travel etc but manning it would be a massive undertaking.
The absolute mewling madness from the rainjurs 1690 brigade ‘you ur ma prime ministur’ when hes clearly out of his depth suggests the UK as a society is doomed to fail. Imagine being that much of a forelock tugging arsehole you’d put eradication of a virus behind being staunch.

[madwullie]

Just now, SlipperyP said:

They are not shitting it, this is just UK media ramping it up.

They have problem tracing all the people in the night clubs as many sign in with not their real names. Reason, there is  few gay clubs in the area and homosexuality is still a little taboo, therefore people sign in with an alias.

Carry on.

OK shitting it was put badly, but they really want to discourage it and are actively working hard to suppress the start of a new infection vector. I got this from reporters with. SK and not British media