Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Marshmallo]

4 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

That would be fair enough if you hadn’t mocked those who have held those views from the start

Anyone who held the same "views" at "the start" about reopening as they do now given all the statistics then and now is deserving of mockery.

Edited July 2, 2020 by Marshmallo

[D.A.F.C]

We have track and trace in Scotland. It appears to be working.

Under no real test at present.

Look at Leicester, they had track and trace but it spread into a cluster and needed lockdown. To me track and trace is what south Korea is doing. Not a mickey mouse call centre like what we have.

[Adam]

That would be fair enough if you hadn’t mocked those who have held those views from the start

This is the biggest lot of shite I’ve seen you spout, and that takes some doing.

[renton]

7 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

But thats not the argument though is it?
Indoors is completely different to outdoors.
Do you want to make a bet on cases rising/not rising after pubs reopen?
£10 says they do. For charity.

The issue is not whether cases spike, the issue is whether there is a sufficient spike to push the R value back above 1 on a geographically wide enough scale to tip the virus back into an uncontrolled growth rate.

[D.A.F.C]

Last thing on the reopening idea.

In America nearly all States were R1 or below before reopening. Now nearly all of them are well above that within a couple of weeks.
There is no safety because the numbers are low. They need to be extremely low or almost eradicated before its safe to go back to reopening. All the science is there if you want to look it up.

[renton]

5 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

Under no real test at present.

Look at Leicester, they had track and trace but it spread into a cluster and needed lockdown. To me track and trace is what south Korea is doing. Not a mickey mouse call centre like what we have.

The point of test and tracking is to prevent it ever coming under "a real test". TTI can practically be deployed to isolate small clusters of cases to prevent a widespread epidemic. That's its job. Leicester didn't have TTI as we do in Scotland.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

Under no real test at present.

Look at Leicester, they had track and trace but it spread into a cluster and needed lockdown. To me track and trace is what south Korea is doing. Not a mickey mouse call centre like what we have.

The latest Pillar 2 figures from Leicester I've seen are from 2 weeks ago.

You would need to look at much more data than a single graph of old data to see what's happened there including...

What have the last 2 weeks looked like (this is crucial as no additional precautions were taken), hospital admissions over the last month, ICU admissions over the last month, deaths over the last month, and anything else that may be a factor.

It's impossible to say track and trace hasn't been effective there without up to date data. It may well have already helped halt and reverse the trend.

[renton]

2 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

Last thing on the reopening idea.

In America nearly all States were R1 or below before reopening. Now nearly all of them are well above that within a couple of weeks.
There is no safety because the numbers are low. They need to be extremely low or almost eradicated before its safe to go back to reopening. All the science is there if you want to look it up.

Yes, and Scotland's strategy has been to hammer down case loads low enough to have margin for 1. Allowing Test and Protect to isolate remaining community cases (midelling suggests 2000 vectors out there, TTI has isolated 1400 odds) and 2. To have margin against vector leakage pushing R back sbove 1 during reopening.

[Have some faith in Magic]

1 minute ago, D.A.F.C said:

Last thing on the reopening idea.

In America nearly all States were R1 or below before reopening. Now nearly all of them are well above that within a couple of weeks.
There is no safety because the numbers are low. They need to be extremely low or almost eradicated before its safe to go back to reopening. All the science is there if you want to look it up.

Don't look at the crackpots over there.

 

l  pay far more attention to the easing of restrictions in  sensible European places like Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain.

 

 

[D.A.F.C]

Scotland is great, nobody tests like we do. England is rubbish.

Sounds a bit like trump.

The only reason scotland has done better is down to less people and a longer lockdown. Yes the track and trace will have helped but to say its somehow better than England is tub thumping nonsense.

[D.A.F.C]

Don't look at the crackpots over there.
 
l  pay far more attention to the easing of restrictions in  sensible European places like Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain.
 
 

You're right but those countries don't have the same drinking culture we do.
Anyway I'm going to stop arguing because its getting into an argument and don't want to annoy people as we clearly have polar opposite views.

[Todd_is_God]

12 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

There is no safety because the numbers are low. They need to be extremely low or almost eradicated before its safe to go back to reopening. All the science is there if you want to look it up.

So like Scotland then? Glad you got there in the end.

[renton]

2 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

Scotland is great, nobody tests like we do. England is rubbish.

Sounds a bit like trump.

The only reason scotland has done better is down to less people and a longer lockdown. Yes the track and trace will have helped but to say its somehow better than England is tub thumping nonsense.

Thats not it. Simply that Test and Protect is predicated on a clear idea of what is meant to achieve, what its limits are, is fully resourced and has transparent and accurate reporting from all testing sources. 

Its job is to isolate small clusters, Scottish case loads are now low enough that Test and Protect should be able to accurately locate and isolate clusters should they come up.

Our case load is low enough that any spike as we open up should be low enough to not push us back above the critical limit for renewed growth.

[welshbairn]

9 minutes ago, Have some faith in Magic said:

Don't look at the crackpots over there.

 

l  pay far more attention to the easing of restrictions in  sensible European places like Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Spain.

 

 

 

3 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

You're right but those countries don't have the same drinking culture we do.
 

Apart from Germany, Belgium, Netherlands and Spain.

[D.A.F.C]

Anyone else want to make that bet?

[renton]

23 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

Anyone else want to make that bet?

Why? it's completely missing the point.

Edited July 2, 2020 by renton

[John MacLean]

47 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

Anyone else want to make that bet?

No, I'm not taking a bet on whether people contract a life threatening virus that has already claimed over half a million lives.

Edited July 2, 2020 by John MacLean
I'm a fanny

[D.A.F.C]

Will cases rise to the point where we need to reverse the opening of pubs and cafes?

I think this was the point?

[Billy Jean King]

Annan and Gretna local measures ???

[Bairnardo]

Will cases rise to the point where we need to reverse the opening of pubs and cafes?

I think this was the point?

If your counter argument is that we should just never open them again and let everyone involved go on the dole, I suspect no one is going to bother with that tbh.