Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[philpy]

We are meant to be going to Keswick for 3 nights at the end of next month, can see that possibly having to be cancelled maybe. We've got until a week before we go to cancel for free, so at least it won't cost us anything. 

[MP_MFC]

Sturgeon basically saying they're going to be putting national restrictions (4 nations) in place early next week.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, hk blues said:

That's an extra 70 people per week so 3,500 per year.  In 2019 "only" 1748 died in road traffic accidents - half as many as your "only" 3,500.  

Hmm....

Firstly, you assume the level of deaths would remain steady. It doesn't, it declines over time.

Secondly, 3,500 from a population of 5.45m is nothing.

Thirdly, a chunk of that 3,500 would have likely died within that year regardless.

[MP_MFC]

Rugby should be getting a spell in the sin bin here.

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, John MacLean said:

Curious to know why you decided to quote me there when nothing you've posted is related to my post. 

Was the word "vaccine" a trigger that got you frothing at the mouth and frantically typing? 

I thought it was relative tbh

[Billy Jean King]

We are meant to be going to Keswick for 3 nights at the end of next month, can see that possibly having to be cancelled maybe. We've got until a week before we go to cancel for free, so at least it won't cost us anything. 

Likewise Devon week after next. Wife will go Tonto if that is cancelled as it will be our 4th trip of one sort or another to be so but not much we can do bar suck it up.

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

There are plenty folk

WFH in industries under severe threat of redundancy eg travel agencies, airlines (ticketing), call centres, tele sales etc. Too big a generalisation to say home workers would be safe in their jobs if / when the next lockdown happens.

I thought it was obvious that I wasn't referring to those people.

[Marshmallo]

 

Looks like confirmation that schools will be last to close. Which is probably fair btw, but they need to stop kidding on it's low or zero risk.

[Todd_is_God]

12 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Extremely difficult for any of the other 3 nations to go against such a restriction in England if that's where they are heading.

I'd argue it was an opportunity for the SG to show that they can lead Scotland in a positive direction, independent of England.

I accept that without the JRS locking down before England in March was out of the question, but they blew the first opportunity with their "longer lockdown = reward" and "adult conversation" nonsense which has dented their credibility.

This time they don't need a handout to do what is best for Scotland. Time to stand up and be counted.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Billy Jean King]

I thought it was obvious that I wasn't referring to those people.

Not from your wording it wasn't ! Another lockdown will be bad for everyone including those WFH.

[John MacLean]

26 minutes ago, Michael W said:

The main problem with collective wellbeing is that there's a massive gap between people who suffer most from Covid and those who low risk from Covid but who are suffering from the restrictions. 

The initial lockdown was tolerable to address a severe and urgent problem, but continuing to trash the futures of the working age population is not an acceptable way to muddle through this. 

I also have to say that a few prominent examples aside, I am yet to see any evidence of mass non-compliance. 

I don't disagree with much, or indeed most, of that. 

I think Governments world wide have faced/are facing the dilemma of trying to deal with the threat to people's health while not doing irreparable damage to the economy and/or as you put it "trash the futures of the working age population" in the process. I don't pretend to have the answers. 

I think in a lot of respects the non-compliance is more subtle than it was and I don't think sometimes people are truly aware that they are being non-compliant. 

To illustrate the above I had a conversation yesterday with someone who was complaining about house parties but also said that she had a friend round at the weekend (she lives in an area where that is currently prohibited) and said "ach, they don't mean things like that - they mean big parties". Well, yes big house parties are clearly more dangerous than two wummin gabbing over tea and cake but if we all think that our individual behaviour is exempt then collectively it becomes a problem. 

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Not from your wording it wasn't ! Another lockdown will be bad for everyone including those WFH.

Fair enough. But I did mean those who know they are secure were being selfish.

Lockdown would be catastrophic, but the people actively calling for lockdowns are thinking only about themselves short term.

It didn't work the first time. Why would we do the same thing again?

Whatever you think of Sweden, the limitations and recommendations they put in place were done so with an eye on them being sustainable mid-long term, which is why they really haven't changed much. I've no idea what the UK panic style approach is trying to achieve.

Uncertainty helps no one.

Edited September 18, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[John MacLean]

Where are all these hoards of people calling for another Lockdown that are being alluded to? 

I don't see them. 

Most people I know are dreading the prospect 

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Where are all these hoards of people calling for another Lockdown that are being alluded to? 
I don't see them. 
Most people I know are dreading the prospect 

Folk that never leave the house during normal times,

[Marshmallo]

1 minute ago, John MacLean said:

Where are all these hoards of people calling for another Lockdown that are being alluded to? 

I don't see them. 

Most people I know are dreading the prospect 

Opinion polls show a majority of respondents are in favour if the case numbers "continue to rise".

The 15,000 randomly selected households thing is interesting - not sure it's the best use of testing supplies but at least it gives them an indicative consistent population. Hoping I'm not picked.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, John MacLean said:

Where are all these hoards of people calling for another Lockdown that are being alluded to? 

I don't see them. 

Most people I know are dreading the prospect 

Likewise.

But you really don't have to stray too far on to any NS tweet, especially, to find them.

It's easy to dismiss these people as out of sight, out of mind because they aren't on here or in our immediate social circles, but they do exist.

[Steven W]

2 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Opinion polls show a majority of respondents are in favour if the case numbers "continue to rise".

The 15,000 randomly selected households thing is interesting - not sure it's the best use of testing supplies but at least it gives them an indicative consistent population. Hoping I'm not picked.

Should have been doing this kind of thing months ago

[Billy Jean King]

Fair enough. But I did mean those who know they are secure were being selfish.
Lockdown would be catastrophic, but the people actively calling for lockdowns are thinking only about themselves short term.
It didn't work the first time. Why would we do the same thing again?

In terms of numbers of new infections it clearly did work, it got them down to single figs in Scotland in fact it can genuinely be argued it's the only tool available without a vaccine that will work but it's the wider "knock on" effects to the economy and people's day to day lives that it results in that are the issue.

Without a vaccine it looks like a cycle of lockdown - ease - lockdown - ease with the easing timed to coincide with the likes of Sumner, Christmas, Easter etc. It sounds and is shite but it looks like this is where we are heading.

You seem to be arguing for the sake of arguing here. Almost universally we are all saying it's a shite state of affairs but ultimately this is the direction UK wide government's seem to be heading. We can all scream "don't do it that way do it my way" but it's hot air, they make the decisions at the end of the day. No one is really disagreeing with you that it would be rotten !

[effeffsee_the2nd]

There is a small but significant number of people who would only leave there house to go to work or go to the shops 99%of the time and there free time involves TV smartphones and sleep . If that life sounds dreadfully boring to you then you probably won’t know many people like that. But for a large chunk of my extended family its the norm.

Lockdown makes no odds to them so they can’t understand why A ) it’s not the number one option to get the virus dowm & B why others would be opposed to it

 

[John MacLean]

1 minute ago, Marshmallo said:

Opinion polls show a majority of respondents are in favour if the case numbers "continue to rise".

 

I'm not sure that's quite the same as todd's assertion that people, safe in their houses and jobs,  are "actively calling" for another full, UK wide, Lockdown. 

If push came to shove I'd possibly categorise myself as in favour of a further Lockdown but only if their was strong evidence to support that, which I don't think there currently is, and only with huge reluctance. Equally I don't see doing nothing as an option. So does that put me in the category of "actively calling" for another Lockdown? Absolutely not.