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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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2 hours ago, renton said:

Seen this thread regarding the impact of Uni students:

At this point sending students home is probably more dangerous than leaving them where they are. I do wonder if the circuit breaker is asmuch about keeping students out of hospitality and mixing as anything else.

Certainly wouldn't be sending them home without a test, that's for sure. If we could, I'd test them and anyone negative can go home. 

Limiting hospitality does I fear create another problem - boredom. Mixing is banned, of course, but I don't imagine that's going to stop anyone having parties, which will spread the virus. 

Approaching this with an opportunist and immoral viewpoint, we also have the perfect opportunity here for a real life science experiment if students remain in halls. Namely, "how long does immunity last and can you catch covid twice?" 

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2 hours ago, Stellaboz said:

The Chinese figures over the summer surely can't be right? Unless it's all a load of bollocks.

This is a good article to explain how CCHHHYYYYNNNNAAAA tackled the pandemic. quick response, previous experience, having the required infastructure in place, locking down hard and a compliant population are all factors.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30800-8/fulltext

 

 

Edited by dirty dingus
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18 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Expecting some greenies from a few regulars on this thread for sharing this tweet.
 

That's a hell of a wide bin for age: 12-24. Everyone from starting secondary school to (technically possibly) finishing your PhD.

Edited to add: it's not, I didnt look hard enough.

Edited by renton
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2 minutes ago, virginton said:

^^^ clutching at straws

Not all, it is too wide a bin to isolate specific settings and age factors and it's hardly contradictory of the previous post showing the effect of University students on a neighbourhoods prevelance anyway.

Edited by renton
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2 minutes ago, renton said:

Not all, it is too wide a bin to isolate specific settings and age factors and it's hardly contradictory of the previous post showing the effect of University students on a neighbourhoods prevelance anyway.

It isn't 12-24 though, it's year 12 to age 24, so 17/18-24.

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Just now, die hard doonhamer said:

It isn't 12-24 though, it's year 12 to age 24, so 17/18-24.

Ah! OK  got you.

Then I'll retract my previous statement. 

Definitely seems like the Uni halls are driving the second wave.

I would also be looking at blended learning for the upper age groups at schools as well.

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34 minutes ago, renton said:

Not all, it is too wide a bin to isolate specific settings and age factors and

Because of course you have been so forthright in denouncing wide age ranges like, say 18-30 throughout the thread.

Quote

it's hardly contradictory of the previous post showing the effect of University students on a neighbourhoods prevelance anyway.

How many university students can be found among the second largest trend line? Be extremely specific.

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11 minutes ago, virginton said:

Because of course you have been so forthright in denouncing wide age ranges like, say 18-30 throughout the thread.

How many university students can be found among the second largest trend line? Be extremely specific.

I would be had I 1. Noticed them and 2. Had they contextually been worth mentioning. However, that's not what happened here as I was helpfully corrected. I am honestly trying to argue in good faith here. 

0, specific enough for you? 

Not that it tells the whole story. That 18-24 bin carries the Uni students which we have a lot of data on as driving infections, secondary school students in the last year or two of school, and a lot young adults in low paying jobs, including call centres, various hospitality jobs, and other retail and customer facing jobs.

Do we have data that the rates of infection across the age bin are evenly spread, or are they centred on one part of it? It could well be that symptomatic cases spread more easily in 18 year old than 13 year old which is what the literature suggests anyway. In which case, removing 18 year olds from the environment would go a long way to reducing infections in the next age bin down, right?

It might not, but the sensible thing to do is start with what we do know about symptomatic spread in adults vs. Children.  By going to remote learning in Universities and blended learning for year 5/6 kids in secondary school we should remove most of the present risk. That leaves us only with the adult staff, but there is a limited amount we can do there.

By concentrating blended learning in only the age groups most likely to be spreading symptomatic cases we can minimise disruption in terms of running the schools and to childcare arrangements for those families affected. 

It then allows us to differentiate cause and effect. We would quickly see what knock on effects we see in younger secondary age groups. Remember that in the Scottish data suggested that secondary schools had twice the symptomatic  weekly rate as secondary schools (2.5% vs. 5%) weekly percentage for Uni students in the same week was running at something like 23% of all cases and hospitality about 26% . So, let's minimise mixing in the 17+ age group and between them and lower age groups.  

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