Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Sergeant Wilson]

I know it couldn't be completely accurate but has anyone estimated the figure infected over all, including untested and recovered? Can this be extrapolated from any existing statistics?

[Szamo's_Ammo]

4 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Not sure about the biggest, but there's plenty of congregating around the school gates at the granddaughter's school, mainly yakking about how it's so difficult to go out on the piss, so organising wee "gatherings" at each other's places. No reponse from staff from the flagrant disregard for SD, mind you.

Most of these comments appear to come from those without kids of their own (or any prospect of the partner/sex life combination requird to get one), who have no understanding of the complexities of trying to provide for a family in a country where the "Dad works and Mum looks after the kids" model - something under threat even when I was a kid - is never ever coming back. Take one element out of the equation, and a lot of peoples' lives become very complex indeed. For those who have also lost the childminding help from parents and possibly one, or even both incomes, this is about a wee bit more than scoring points on the Internet.  When you see how children are referred to by some (and I'm guessing again, we're talking non-parents) you (or at least I) begin to think the likes of VT and his mates actually are nasty, immature  little shits.

Your simplistic and quite frankly horrifying musings regarding addiction a couple of weeks ago were bad enough but this one is pushing them pretty close.

Congratulations.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

15 minutes ago, Falkirk09Bairn said:

Friends have each other’s backs. We’ll often spend hours critiquing our contributions to this website and have been known to ask for support when required. There is nothing wrong with that. 

Aahh, I was  being whooshed!  I thought you might have been serious.

[Bairnardo]

Aahh, I was  being whooshed!  I thought you might have been serious.

That's a troll account you are engaging with m8

[Marshmallo]

8 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Not sure about the biggest, but there's plenty of congregating around the school gates at the granddaughter's school, mainly yakking about how it's so difficult to go out on the piss, so organising wee "gatherings" at each other's places. No reponse from staff from the flagrant disregard for SD, mind you.

Most of these comments appear to come from those without kids of their own (or any prospect of the partner/sex life combination requird to get one), who have no understanding of the complexities of trying to provide for a family in a country where the "Dad works and Mum looks after the kids" model - something under threat even when I was a kid - is never ever coming back. Take one element out of the equation, and a lot of peoples' lives become very complex indeed. For those who have also lost the childminding help from parents and possibly one, or even both incomes, this is about a wee bit more than scoring points on the Internet.  When you see how children are referred to by some (and I'm guessing again, we're talking non-parents) you (or at least I) begin to think the likes of VT and his mates actually are nasty, immature  little shits.

^^^ has two weans

[WhiteRoseKillie]

Just now, Bairnardo said:

2 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Aahh, I was  being whooshed!  I thought you might have been serious.

That's a troll account you are engaging with m8

Not an uncommon thing on this thread, little fella.

[dirty dingus]

I was busy during the update but I caught a question asking why Inverclyde and Midlothian should not be taken outwithin the health board areas as they have low figures. What was the response, cheers.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

Just now, Marshmallo said:

^^^ has two weans

Four, actually, and three Grandkids, so maybe, just maybe,  more experienced/qualified than a clique of non-parents when it comes to commenting on the complexities of family life in this Tory wasteland.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 
That’s a really nasty thing to say x

To Bennett?

[Marshmallo]

Just now, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Four, actually, and three Grandkids, so maybe, just maybe,  more experienced/qualified than a clique of non-parents when it comes to commenting on the complexities of family life in this Tory wasteland.

Have you ever been a single parent?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

SPFL has confirmed Sky Sports won’t be making the Old Firm game free to air. The right decision.

Thank f**k.

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 minute ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Four, actually, and three Grandkids, so maybe, just maybe,  more experienced/qualified than a clique of non-parents when it comes to commenting on the complexities of family life in this Tory wasteland.

Are you trolling them now?

[WhiteRoseKillie]

2 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Have you ever been a single parent?

Nope, but I've been the brother of one, and known more than a few.

[The Moonster]

3 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Four, actually, and three Grandkids, so maybe, just maybe,  more experienced/qualified than a clique of non-parents when it comes to commenting on the complexities of family life in this Tory wasteland.

I'd argue that makes you too emotionally involved to make a clear judgement. 

[Marshmallo]

1 minute ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Nope, but I've been the brother of one, and known more than a few.

I will bow to your superior expertise.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Talking of Janey Godley . . .

 

https://twitter.com/heraldscot...tatus/1316989754370502656?s=19

 

 

[Aufc]

That’s my old man confirmed with covid. Says he is feeling ok at the moment so hopefully continues like that

[Gaz]

The circumstances around the OF game at the weekend would be utterly hilarious if it wasn't for the fact we're all going to have to deal with the shit fallout from it all.

[Szamo's_Ammo]

22 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Talking of Janey Godley . . .

 

https://twitter.com/heraldscot...tatus/1316989754370502656?s=19

You strike me as someone who would be a fan of her work.

[renton]

So, I know we all love a good graph on this thread, I have (sad b*****d that I am) taken Travelling Tabby's data set for new cases and plotted it first linearly, including some inportant dates for openings and restrictions. Orange is the actual data, blue is the 7 day average. Green vertical lines are things opening, which I've labelled, yellow are restrictions (also labelled). Black dashed lines are 5 days after an opening (5 days is the median infection time) red dashed lines are two weeks after infection, purple line indicates when Scot Gove believed R stepped above 1:

But I don't like plotting exponentials on a linear trend, it tends to decieve the eye and drag it towards the knee point where the exponential takes off, and isn't good at looking at the early stages of exponential growth. So, I replotted it with a Y axis log scale. This converts the data so that a pure, noiseless exponential function would look like a straight line, the slope of which would be derived from the time constant of the exponential. The shallower the gradient, the flatter the line, the longer it takes for infections to increase:

On a log scale, using the 7 day average curve you can kinda see that infections begin to climb again almost as soon as anything is open again. There is that one (weekend?) of very small numbers in the middle of it, but there is no doubt that there is exponential growth of infections even before the schools open. interestingly that seems to flatten out around the second week of August when the schools went back, and stays reasonably flat over the next two weeks afterwards. Scot Gov said it's track and trace teams were seeing cases assocaited with indoor gatherings in the west, which prompted the initial restrictions there. The gradient shallows again for a week or so after that until the Universties open, which does seem to push the gradient higher again.

What it does suggest to me is how hard it is to disagregate causes. If we can assume from this that hospitality, indoor socialising and retail do drive some case loads, then it's quite hard to show schools making a big difference based on this. You could delete the date line for the schools opening and the trend would look reasonably uninterupted. That's not to say schools didn't - for all we know, another factor may have been decreasing at the time and schools picking up the slack... but it doesn't appear like schools particularly change the trajectory of the graph if you look at it on a longer time frame.