Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[vikingTON]

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Edited to add: and as for laughing at aiming for Australia as an end game. Well as was pointed out by some doctor on Question Time a couple of days ago, we had more deaths recorded in a single day at over 1000, than they've had in the entire pandemic in Australia. So that sounds like a fucking terrific endgame in comparison.

Given that there are 60k confirmed cases per day in the UK and the R rate is still above 1, it would take fucking forever to get anywhere near your zero Covid fantasy though. England didn't manage to get close to eradication at the regional level at any point in 2020 while still having restrictions in place. 

There's neither the economic means nor the societal will to pursue this utterly ruinous path on some fatuous 'just in case' basis.

Edited January 9, 2021 by vikingTON

[Todd_is_God]

I really don't understand the current obsession with "bUt dOeS iT sToP tRaNsMisSiOn?"

Does the flu vaccine prevent transmission?

If it doesn't, this whole point can be discarded into the bin, and anyone who brings it up ignored immediately.

[s_dog]

5 minutes ago, virginton said:

Why would immunity not last? This has been an utterly ridiculous red herring since the 'oh but you might get Covid again!!!111!!!' days of the spring which - surprise! - has not actually been happening.

Once the immune system is given exposure with the correct dosage then it is ready to effortlessly deal with it again in the future. We would not exist as a species if it magically forgot how to deal with a virus - never mind having being given a scientifically designed dose to acquire immunity in the first place. 

NB:

A set of indefinite restrictions on everyday life whenever somebody gets a glorified sniffle again and the complete destruction of entire sectors of the economy - all hinging on the myth that a country of 65 million people can be magically isolated from an adjacent continent with which it has been highly integrated for decades - is not a 'way out' at all. It is an utterly pointless cul-de-sac.

There are people who've had Covid more than once already? Was just reading about someone who'd had it in March with only mild symptoms but this time she'd ended up in hospital. You may well be right about immunity lasting, I hope so (I suppose you could be right about one thing, even you or that Todd guy might manage it once!).

It is a possible way out, and one that might be quicker and less harmful to what we've being doing up to now. I know you are completely blinded by your glorified sniffle nonsense, but a short, local lockdown or there always being the danger of things getting out of control and a long, national lockdown? I think I'd prefer the first one. 

[welshbairn]

10 minutes ago, virginton said:

Once the immune system is given exposure with the correct dosage then it is ready to effortlessly deal with it again in the future.

If only these pesky viruses would stay the same, as anyone who's had more than one cold or flu episode in their lives would say. It's likely a covid vaccine will be added to the flu cocktail jag rolled out every year.

[vikingTON]

Just now, s_dog said:

It is a possible way out, and one that might be quicker and less harmful to what we've being doing up to now. I know you are completely blinded by your glorified sniffle nonsense, but a short, local lockdown or there always being the danger of things getting out of control and a long, national lockdown? I think I'd prefer the first one. 

Please show your working as to how a virus that currently produces 60k confirmed cases per day  - with the ONS estimating far more than that - would be reduced to 0 cases per day through a "short, local lockdown". Because other than picking a magical 0.0 R rate, that's not happening.

[s_dog]

8 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

I'm not quoting all of that but how would you define "a significant number of people" being vaccinated? And what sort of restrictions are in place until we hit that figure? Can we ease off some things till we hit that number?

I appreciate the situation is fluid but given we now have a vaccine it would be good to see triggers and thresholds for lifting restrictions at varying levels. It would help morale and potentially increase compliance if people can see targets to try and hit (eg less than 50% ICU capacity and we can drop to tier 3).

I don't know, don't they talk about something like 70-80% for herd immunity, so maybe something similar? As for triggers and thresholds, yeah I can see the point about it being something to lift morale, but a lot of what happens also depends how many people actually take the vaccine when offered it.

[s_dog]

2 minutes ago, virginton said:

Given that there are 60k confirmed cases per day in the UK and the R rate is still above 1, it would take fucking forever to get anywhere near your zero Covid fantasy though. England didn't manage to get close to eradication at the regional level at any point in 2020 while still having restrictions in place. 

There's neither the economic means nor the societal will to pursue this utterly ruinous path on some fatuous 'just in case' basis.

The reason England didn't manage it was because they eased up too quickly on restrictions while their numbers where still too high. We had similar R rates in Scotland at times, but we managed it?

To be fair, you are right in that its got so out of control now that it'll be difficult to get numbers low enough. But if it wasn't for the fact that we did such a shit job of it in the UK as a whole, and that we had a government who encouraged everyone to go and eat out to help out, and there weren't so many people pushing anti-mask or covid denial, we might not be in the pathetic state we are right now.

[vikingTON]

3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

If only these pesky viruses would stay the same, as anyone who's had more than one cold or flu episode in their lives would say. It's likely a covid vaccine will be added to the flu cocktail jag rolled out every year.

Here was me thinking that we weren't supposed to compare Covid to the flu. And I see that you've qualified as an epidemiologist recently as well, given your braying hostility towards laymen making predictions about the pandemic.

The cold is not caused by a single virus but hundreds. Flu has been circulating among humans, pigs, birds and other species in close contact with humans for millennia. That is why there is a huge range of flu virus variants and why vaccine producers have to design how to best cover their seasonal strain. Neither are even remotely comparable with Covid-19 right now, for which have three highly effective vaccines within 15 months of its discovery. But yes of course we should trash the economy for an indefinite period of time on the off-chance that we might need to create a second vaccine down the line instead which would cost money as well. 

Simpering, tuned to the moon nonsense doesn't even fully cover it.

[s_dog]

7 minutes ago, virginton said:

Please show your working as to how a virus that currently produces 60k confirmed cases per day  - with the ONS estimating far more than that - would be reduced to 0 cases per day through a "short, local lockdown". Because other than picking a magical 0.0 R rate, that's not happening.

A short, local lockdown as in once the numbers are low enough to contain it.  Not to get the numbers down from their current rate.

[Thereisalight..]

Once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated then I see no need to carry on with restrictions. For the vast majority of people outwith the above mentioned if they get covid it's either a mild inconvenience or they dont even know they've got it. Why would/should we continue to wreck the economy, people's businesses, the things people enjoy in life and their mental health for something that's "like" (but not before the haters start) the flu 

[Thereisalight..]

18 minutes ago, s_dog said:

There are people who've had Covid more than once already? Was just reading about someone who'd had it in March with only mild symptoms but this time she'd ended up in hospital. You may well be right about immunity lasting, I hope so (I suppose you could be right about one thing, even you or that Todd guy might manage it once!).

It is a possible way out, and one that might be quicker and less harmful to what we've being doing up to now. I know you are completely blinded by your glorified sniffle nonsense, but a short, local lockdown or there always being the danger of things getting out of control and a long, national lockdown? I think I'd prefer the first one. 

I'm pretty sure Ross McCrorie has had it twice 

[Robin.Hood]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/55602866?__twitter_impression=true

First colleagues that I have heard of who have died because of the virus

[vikingTON]

8 minutes ago, s_dog said:

A short, local lockdown as in once the numbers are low enough to contain it.  Not to get the numbers down from their current rate.

So that's yet another, long national lockdown baked in, followed by an indefinite series of local lockdowns until when exactly? At what point do we as a society actually return to a rational balance between one risk and myriad others?

The likes of Australia can run with what it has for the time being but if they were in the UK's current position then the only credible way out for them would be vaccination and lifting restrictions on that basis of protection instead. There's no scope to change lanes because the costs of doing so are enormous and society is not going to tolerate it. That ship sailed last spring.

Edited January 9, 2021 by vikingTON

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, virginton said:

Here was me thinking that we weren't supposed to compare Covid to the flu. And I see that you've qualified as an epidemiologist recently as well, given your braying hostility towards laymen making predictions about the pandemic.

The cold is not caused by a single virus but hundreds. Flu has been circulating among humans, pigs, birds and other species in close contact with humans for millennia. That is why there is a huge range of flu virus variants and why vaccine producers have to design how to best cover their seasonal strain. Neither are even remotely comparable with Covid-19 right now, for which have three highly effective vaccines within 15 months of its discovery. But yes of course we should trash the economy for an indefinite period of time on the off-chance that we might need to create a second vaccine down the line instead which would cost money as well. 

Simpering, tuned to the moon nonsense doesn't even fully cover it.

I never said anything about shutting down the economy forever, just pointing out that catching a virus or getting a vaccine doesn't make you safe for evermore, as they mutate, and antibodies don't have immortal memories anyway. I was just pointing out that your assertion is time limited, but it seems you just want a rant rather than a discussion, so carry on.

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Once the immune system is given exposure with the correct dosage then it is ready to effortlessly deal with it again in the future.

 

[Marshmallo]

19 minutes ago, s_dog said:

I don't know, don't they talk about something like 70-80% for herd immunity, so maybe something similar? As for triggers and thresholds, yeah I can see the point about it being something to lift morale, but a lot of what happens also depends how many people actually take the vaccine when offered it.

70-80% for full lifting of all restrictions seems excessive when a much smaller proportion of the population are driving hospitalisations. The full reason we brought restrictions was to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. If the population who are driving NHS usage are vaccinated then our reason for restrictions disappears.

[Detournement]

12 minutes ago, Robin.Hood said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/55602866?__twitter_impression=true

First colleagues that I have heard of who have died because of the virus

That's horrible.

People need to start thinking about the frequency of their supermarket trips and one adult per trolley needs to be enforced. 

 

[Bairnardo]

Folk whining about needing to stop transmission need to remember that one of the biggest issues with this virus is the number of people bone the fucking wiser that they ever even had it.

Once those likely to be harmed by this virus are vaccinated, this is as close to a harmless virus as can be imagined. Absolute bullshit to seek to stop transmission.

Those who are at risk have been vaccinated accordingly have no right to further protection from this virus at the current costs to the rest of the population, any more than they do for flu, which has never been remotely considered

[Ron Aldo]

Genuinely can't understand why people would still be happy to accept restrictions on their life once we get to a point where Covid isn't making anyone seriously ill or putting anyone in hospital.

Can just imagine getting daily briefings from Nicola Sturgeon to tell us that John Smith from Rutherglen will be in his bed for the next few days so everyone within a 3 mile radius has to stay at home.

[HibsFan]

To be honest, f**k the economic argument how about the "is this the way you want to spend the next two or three years of your life?" argument. 

If we get to a point where the vulnerable have been vaccinated and everyone else is slowly getting processed through, time to do away with just about every restriction imaginable and have some fun again. Yes the international travel might be a bit trickier if other countries are behind us, but come on, let's live a little.

[No_Problemo]

Last year we locked down from March. Pubs and restaurants didn’t reopen until mid July. Gyms and other things didn’t open until August. 

On the 1st of September, indoor gatherings were again banned in the west of Scotland. This hasn’t changed ever since. 
 

During this time Aberdeen were placed in a further lockdown. 
 

Where is this gap where zero covid was achievable? Should we have just have stayed in perpetual lockdown from then until now. At best, most of Scotland was out of lockdown for two months. Even during those two months everything was heavily restricted. 
 

Schools won’t stay closed until the summer, so in what world is zero covid achievable. To achieve zero covid from where we are now, everyone would have to suffer a harsh lockdown from now until summer. Then what? We open things up gradually and within weeks are locking down again. What’s the fucking point.