Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Billy Jean King]

Can't see the English red list standing up
They will move to all countries as anyone else who's introduced these measures has

That's how I see it, they will simply add countries weekly like the "travel corridors" of last summer.

[madwullie]

Just England but R of 0.75 based on hospital admissions. 

 

How soon is it expected that we start to see the effect of vaccines in the data? 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2021 by madwullie

[Elixir]

So the same Adam Finn who was rightly criticised on here this morning for his comments regarding returning to normal, wrote an article in the Guardian only yesterday: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/08/compare-vaccines-effective-trial-data

Quote

But the most important question is how well the vaccines reduce transmission. If they can do that reasonably well, and we should be optimistic that they will, then getting people across the world immunised in sufficient numbers to achieve herd immunity really does become a pathway back to normality.

It genuinely seems like some of these 'experts' are suffering from delirium and don't even realise what they're saying at times.

[Skyline Drifter]

17 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Yeah that's fair enough. I was too loose with the way I expressed that. It's undeniable that a fair amount of people are falling though the cracks. 

That's absolutely true. I've got clients in the same position. It's extremely unfortunate but it's also very difficult to see what exactly they can do about it. If people have actually registered as self employed already but not filed any accounts then maybe there's a way they could get some sort of minimal support payment, I'm not sure but there's simply no way to reasonably assess what sort of loss those people are suffering. For every hairdresser who is being prevented from earning £20k a year there's three who do it for a bit of housekeeping money.

People who hadn't even got as far as telling HMRC they are self employed are pretty much completely screwed but that will be a very small number.

It's very, very difficult to come up with a reasonable scheme to compensate the newly self employed without leaving it wildly open to abuse. As you say a lot of them fall through the cracks, particularly if for one reason or another they don't qualify for any universal credit. It's not fair but it's not easy to solve either.

[super_carson]

4 minutes ago, madwullie said:Just England but R of 0.75 based on hospital admissions. 

 

How soon is it expected that we start to see the effect of vaccines in the data? 

 

 

 

 

I may be mistaken but I think NS alluded to this data coming through in the next couple of weeks. 

 Certainly  it is positive in Israel, going by various tweets and reports, and hopefully we will see that in our data soon.  

It may not be until we start vaccinating the younger groups that it makes a big dent overall in terms of cases but it should hopefully make a big impact in the groups that are making up the hospitalisations and deaths.

[Billy Jean King]

Just England but R of 0.75 based on hospital admissions.    How soon is it expected that we start to see the effect of vaccines in the data?     
 
 

Van Tam has been saying 1-2 weeks for the past 3 or 4 weeks which is slightly concerning. He did say yesterday he was "slightly surprised" there wasn't stronger indications by now that the reductions we are seeing weren't more skewed towards the already vaccinated age groups. He did counter that by saying literally minutes later that there were not that many studies by age group of new infections which kinda debunked his 1st statement.

[Billy Jean King]

"Test and Trace has identified 170 cases of the South Africa variant, including 18 cases unlinked to travel.
Dr Susan Hopkins, from PHE, told a briefing for journalists: "To date we have identified 170 cases and 18 of these are unlinked to travel, and that means that they neither travelled abroad themselves or a direct contact with an individual that has travelled," she said.
She added that "the best way to keep the South African variant down is to reduce all cases.
"If we keep R below one, then it is highly unlikely this will become an exponential event."

That statement from PHE is telling. There is no way there will be much scope for lifting any restrictions if they think that R has to be kept under 1 to suppress all the concerning mutations.

[Elixir]

 

[Billy Jean King]

 

An Oxford study promoting an AZ drug. Never saw that coming [emoji102]

[Have some faith in Magic]

2 new mutants discovered in Bristol and Liverpool.

 

 

 

 

 

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, Have some faith in Magic said:

2 new mutants discovered in Bristol and Liverpool.

Calm down, calm down

[Michael W]

1 minute ago, Have some faith in Magic said:

2 new mutants discovered in Bristol and Liverpool.

 

 

 

 

 

Here's one of them 

[Elixir]

6 minutes ago, Have some faith in Magic said:

2 new mutants discovered in Bristol and Liverpool.

Only two?

[Sergeant Wilson]

17 minutes ago, Elixir said:

 

Who'd've thunk it? A drug that helps you breathe would be good for a condition that might restrict your breathing. These Quacks have been at it for a year.

[effeffsee_the2nd]

2 new mutants discovered in Bristol and Liverpool.
 
 
 
 
 

What about covid tho?

[true_rover]

Just England but R of 0.75 based on hospital admissions.    How soon is it expected that we start to see the effect of vaccines in the data?     
 
 

By the same measure and using a 3 day average, the Scottish R figure is 0.72.

It's now consistently below 100 admissions a day, but would expect an impact from vaccines to come in over the next couple of weeks.

[Binos]

4 minutes ago, true_rover said:

By the same measure and using a 3 day average, the Scottish R figure is 0.72.

It's now consistently below 100 admissions a day, but would expect an impact from vaccines to come in over the next couple of weeks.

There was still over 1000 deaths in the UK today

Many presumably from the Christmas relaxation

I can't see them relaxing anything until many more are vaccinated

[DeeTillEhDeh]

10 years in jail hahahahaha

Which is what some Tory cronies deserve.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Half of the population can barely spell their own name, expecting them all to be law students is a pretty big ask.

VT manages it.

[true_rover]

There was still over 1000 deaths in the UK today
Many presumably from the Christmas relaxation
I can't see them relaxing anything until many more are vaccinated

Reported deaths are different from actual deaths - the peak number of deaths in this wave is likely to have happened on the 19th of Jan with 1,404 registered by the 29th. Some of the numbers might increase slightly but we are passed that particular peak.